When a prospect makes a splashy debut, it affects his fantasy perception. Alec Bohm surged once the Phillies added him from the alternate site hitting a robust .338/.400/.481 across 44 games spanning 180 plate appearances with 24 runs, four home runs, 23 RBI and even swiped a base. His discipline metrics checked the boxes with an 8.9 walk percentage, 20 percent strikeout rate, .144 isolated power and .381 weighted on-base average (wOBA).
He just missed notching a 90 percent Z-Contact (in the strike zone) rate finishing with an 87.9 mark plus a swinging strike percentage of only 11 in his rookie season. Carrying over these numbers without an adjustment period may be difficult in the full season on the horizon, but Bohm definitely flashed plus skills at the dish.
According to Statcast, he recorded 126 batted ball events with 13 barrels (10.3 percent), an average exit velocity of 90.2 MPH and an enticing 46.8 hard hit percentage. His expected numbers take a bit of the helium out of his numbers evidenced by a .285 expected batting average, .466 expected slugging and a .357 expected weighted on-base average (24 points below his actual). Here's his zone profile:
Finding solace once again in his discipline, Bohm registered a zone contact of 83.4 percent with a 47.5 swing rate and 25.2 whiff percentage. Of more concern, his type of batted balls. He produced ground balls in 54 percent of his events, fly balls only 15.1 percent of the time and a line drive rate of 30.2 percent, which proves tough to repeat. Hence the expected numbers pointing to regression to the mean in 2021.
Coming up through the minors, Bohm projected to mature into his power peak. This remains true for 2021. He's only accrued 270 plate appearances at Double-A prior to his debut last year. During his time in Double-A, his slash line of .269/.344/.500 aligns with the regression alluded to above by Statcast. Then factor two of his four home runs rated as no-doubters (out of any park) with the ground ball lean within his batted ball data, but his spray chart provides hope if he makes an effort to produce more to his pull side:
Plus, his swing and take profile indicates he owns plate discipline better than his peers:
Noting all of his information to this point, it's time to see how his projection sets view his upcoming season:
Bohm's a growth stock. In redraft leagues, he needs to hit .280 or better at his present price point. Especially if the power takes time to develop. Assess him wisely and if one believes he passed the eye test, target with confidence, seen in the ATC projection. Just heed the expected statistics from last year when mapping out his 2021 results.
THE BAT and THE BAT X courtesy of Derek Carty
ATC courtesy of Ariel Cohen
ZiPS courtesy of Dan Szymborski