Top Tier
Adam Wainwright, SP STL - Wainwright at home against a bad Pirates team has all the makings of a GPP winning play today. In two starts against the Pirates he is 2-0, having allowed just one run over 15 innings while striking out 15 which includes his complete game shutout against them just two starts ago.
Framber Valdez, SP HOU - Valdez is the contrarian SP play for me today. He hasn't been outstanding of late but the strikeout upside is nice, the Mariners are a manageable team and the Astros are big favorites to win. If Valdez can get into the seventh here without too much damage then 20+ FP is in the cards.
Mid-Tier
Vladimir Gutierrez, SP CIN - I don't really like that this is a home game seeing as Gutierrez owns a 5.35 home ERA vs a 2.92 road ERA but I think the Marlins are a team he can beat and he has actually been much better at home of late, allowing just three runs over 12.1 innings in his last two home starts. Overall he hasn't allowed more than two earned runs in any of his last five outings.
Adrian Houser, SP MIL - Coming off covid-19 is a bit of a worry here but this is a good spot for Houser against a weaker Nationals lineup. Houser has pitched well at home this season as well, posting a 3.16 ERA over 11 appearances while striking out 45 over 51.1 innings. Prior to getting sick, Houser had a 3.22 ERA over his previous 10 starts, going 4-0 during that span.
Value Tier
Alec Mills, SP CHC - Mills has managed to be serviceable when taking the mound for the Cubs lately, having not allowed more than three earned runs in any of his last 10 appearances while posting a 3.45 ERA during that span. He has also pitched well at home this season, going 4-1 with a 3.06 ERA. He doesn't strike out a ton of hitters so fantasy owners will need him to get the win today for this pick to play off.