Momentum not only carries weight in the standings during a hot streak, it can also affect bullpen hierarchies as well. With the Mets playing their way into playoff contention, Seth Lugo continues to thrive. Dating back to July second, Lugo’s recorded 15.2 scoreless innings spanning 14 appearances. He’s only yielded three hits and one walk with 19 strikeouts of the 51 total batters faced. This results in a .061/.098/.061 slash line against, a .079 weighted on-base average and a minuscule 0.26 WHIP. 

Also within this sample, Lugo’s generated a 10.5 swinging strike percentage with a 77.3 contact percentage. Neither of these results jump off the page, but given the three hits allowed, a 60 percent ground ball rate and 22.2 infield fly ball percentage combined with a 20 percent hard hit rate given up, Lugo’s minimizing solid contact with a 35.3 strikeouts minus walks percentage. Pretty good. 

As a comparison, closer Edwin Díaz owns a 6.76 ERA with six losses since April 29th. Diaz worked a scoreless ninth inning in Game 1 of Monday’s doubleheader walking one and striking out two. But, Lugo shut the door in Game 2 for his second save with two clean innings and two strikeouts. There’s no guarantee Lugo will be the closer the rest of the season. However, with the Mets pushing for the playoffs, it’s likely he remains in high leverage situations going forward, including closing games. 

Knowing Lugo owns one of the highest spin rates with his curve (3276) according to Statcast, he’s found success this year using more fastballs:

As his arsenal evolves, Lugo’s fueled his surge. Here’s a look at his arsenal with his pitches plotted:

Using the Statcast data, Lugo’s .180 expected batting average against ranks in the top three percent of baseball and his .239 expected weighted on-base average against is in the top two percent. His two most used pitches own identical .149 expected batting averages against as well. His fastball results in a 46.3 strikeout percentage this year on Statcast with a five percent walk rate. Here’s an example from his outing on Monday: 

As for his curve, it’s nasty, as seen here courtesy of Statcast archives from July 19th.

His curve ranks second among his pitches with a 34 strikeout percentage but with zero walks this year. It also yields a five degree launch angle on average. In fact, transitioning to the information on Brooks Baseball, since July second, Lugo’s recorded a ground ball rate of 50 percent or better with each pitch in his arsenal. His curve ranks highest with a 78 percent ground ball percentage and his sinker second at 66.7 percent. HIs isolated power allowed in this time with any pitch, zero. Take a look at Lugo’s zone profile from July second through last night’s save:

Lugo does not go above the top third of the strike zone to generate strikeouts, but he’s mixing his pitches more at the top of the zone while burying his curve for strikeouts. Also note the spike in infield fly ball percentage as a result of more pitches in the top third of the strike zone. 

On the season, Lugo’s experienced some ups and downs, but this recent spike in performance should pique fantasy owners for the rest of the season. With his job on the line, Mickey Callaway will use the best pitcher at his disposal to win games. And since July second in the bullpen, it’s Lugo. Through 44 appearances, Lugo owns a 2.59 ERA, 3.45 xFIP and 0.93 WHIP with 72 strikeouts against 13 walks in 55.2 innings. If he maintains the ground ball lean while depressing hard hits against, his performance in high leverage should yield success. 

Due to recent circumstances and performance, Seth Lugo could be a top-10 reliever the rest of the season. His team owns a strong pitching staff built on winning close games. Edwin Díaz could be a factor if he rights the ship, but right now, Lugo could save at least five more games with ratio protection making him a desirable addition for the rest of the season. 

 

Statistical Credits:

BaseballSavant.com

Fangraphs.com

BrooksBaseball.net