Moving to Coors should impact any pitcher. When Wade Davis accepted a three year deal, it forced fantasy owners to adjust accordingly targeting him in drafts. Then a rough start to his move culminated in an epic meltdown on August ninth when Davis allowed two home runs blowing open a tied game in the ninth. Through his first 47.1 innings, Davis 5.51 ERA, 4.28 xFIP, 1.27 WHIP and 12.1 walk percentage. After watching video and making an adjustment in his delivery, Davis finished with a flurry racking up 25 strikeouts against two walks over his last 18 innings with a 0.50 ERA, 1.91 xFIP, 0.50 WHIP and 3.2 walk percentage.

Suggesting Davis will be able to carry over this type of surge to a full season would be a mistake. However, with so many bullpens in disarray, fluid situations and saves becoming a coveted commodity, Davis at a reduced price could be a savvy buy. Over the last three years, he’s recorded 104 saves with a 2.88 ERA, 3.58 xFIP and 1.09 WHIP. Underneath the numbers, Davis also owns a 43.4 ground ball percentage and 20 percent strikeouts minus walks rate in 169 innings.

Last year, Davis notched 43 saves in 65.1 innings with 78 strikeouts, 26 walks, a 4.13 ERA, 3.63 xFIP and 10.6 WHIP. He incurred some bad luck with a strand rate at 66.9 percent, over six points below the league average. According to Statcast, Davis ranked in the top third of the league with a .178 expected batting average and .276 expected slugging. In fact, his arsenal and adjustment could signal a rebound season when so many questions linger at the closer position. First, here’s his arsenal in a plot map courtesy of Statcast:

Seeing how Davis moved the ball up and down in the zone, his expected numbers need to focused on more, as mentioned above:

Given his home in Coors, it’s impressive Davis did not see a spike in his home run per fly ball percentage last year and though his hard-hit rate increased, it did so without being an alarming rate. Underscoring his underrated finish to the season, Davis recorded a 3.47 kwFIP with only 4.6 expected home runs on xSTATS along with an expected on-base average of .259 compared to a .272 weighted on-base average.

Despite all of this, the projection modules focused more on the last three years and last season in them:

On the surface, it seems like Wade Davis struggled to adapt to Coors Field last year. But, with a WHIP below 1.10, both his xFIP and kwFIP in a range of 3.47-to-3.63, his ERA in 2019 could return to a more palatable number. He may not reach his three-year 2.88 ERA, but even if Davis can get it in the range above with 35-plus saves, he’s falling too far in drafts. When the room zigs, do not be afraid to zag. Davis could be another boring old veteran who might be a bargain.

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Statistical Credits:

Fangraphs.com

BaseballSavant.com

xSTATS.org

ATC courtesy of Ariel Cohen

Steamerprojections.com

ZiPS courtesy of Dan Szymborski

https://www.mlb.com/news/wade-davis-correcting-flaw-in-delivery-c28976165