When trying to evaluate Sean Doolittle , it’s never about talent. Also, he’s one of the best baseball players to follow on Twitter. Last year, Doolittle racked up elite numbers with three wins, 25 saves, 60 strikeouts versus six walks, a 1.60 ERA, 2.68 xFIP and minuscule 0.60 WHIP. He also generated a 16.8 swinging strike percentage, held hitters contact to less than 70 percent and finished with a 37.1 chase rate.

Doolittle does yield too many fly balls, 48.4 percent to be exact last year, but works around them by reducing hard hits. According to Statcast, Doolittle owned a .163 expected batting average, .258 expected slugging and allowed hard hit only 24.2 percent of the time. He mainly uses his fastball but his pinpoint control fuels his success. Here’s a look at his pitches from last year in a plot map:

Seeing how Doolittle uses high fastballs, it explains his higher rate of fly balls. In order to illustrate his strong expected tendencies, here’s his pitches last year using the Statcast metrics:

It’s remarkable at this time of scouting and metrics, Doolittle can still get hitters to chase the ball at the top of or above the strike zone. But with so many hitters trying to produce fly balls, Doolittle preys on their approach:

Not only does Doolittle show well on Statcast, but his xSTATS kwFIP of 2.02 presents a nice baseline for his ERA in 2019. He also recorded a .213 expected on-base average. All of this adds up to a dominant reliever, so why does Doolittle go in the second or third tier of most drafts and rankings? Durability. As talented as Doolittle skill set rates, he’s not pitched more than 60 innings in a season since 2014. This can be seen in his projection sets, but not as aggressive as one would think:

Over the last three years, Doolittle’s thrown 39 innings (2016), 51.1 innings (2017) and 45 innings (2018) which equates to an average of 45.1 innings in this sample. Only ZiPS seems to account for this. Could Doolittle throw 60 innings this year with elite numbers, absolutely. Should a fantasy owner pay for it? Even in this fluid save environment, it’s difficult to do. Plan on an injured list stint and profit if Doolittle reaches the ATC projection. It’s possible, but the past suggests it may not be probable.

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Statistical Credits:

Fangraphs.com

BaseballSavant.com

xSTATS.org

ATC courtesy of Ariel Cohen

Steamerprojections.com

ZiPS courtesy of Dan Szymborski