Signed to be the closer for the Angels, Cody Allen continues to climb the draft boards. Perhaps it’s the association with Mike Trout or Allen being named a closer with so many fluid situations about to ensue with the season fast approaching. Either way, it could be a risky venture even with perceived clarity.

Last year did not go well for Allen. He recorded four wins among his 10 decisions and 27 saves over 67 innings in 70 games. But his ERA rose to 4.70, his FIP to 4.70 and WHIP to 1.36 accompanying a 11.4 walk percentage. Working from behind in the count forced Allen to throw more fastballs resulting in predictability and a spike to 38.4 in hard hit rate allowed.

Over the last three years, Allen’s tied for seventh in baseball in saves (91) with Aroldis Chapman . Allen’s appeared in 208 games with a 261:81 K:BB, 3.35 ERA, 3.66 FIP, 1.16 WHIP and 13.9 swinging strike percentage. Perhaps last year could be an outlier? Before investing in those rose-colored glasses, note Allen’s three year trends in the following data:

  • Ground Ball Percentage: 45.6 (2016), 33.5 (2017), 30 (2018)
  • Fly Ball Percentage: 36.1 (2016), 46.3 (2017), 50 (2018)
  • Hard Hit Percentage: 35.3 (2016), 28.1 (2017), 38.4 (2018)

Not only did Allen throw more fastballs last year, but his velocity when doing so needs to be heeded. Courtesy of Brooks Baseball, here’s a look:

Seeing the last two dots represent his velocities so far this spring. In his last outing, Allen only generated two swinging strikes among his 24 pitches thrown. This resulted in two hits, two earned runs, a walk and a strikeout. Through 10 innings this spring, Allen owns a 12:6 K:BB giving up eight earned runs. According to Statcast, the average exit velocity of the four batted ball events of this game, 97.6 MPH. With this in mind, here’s his pitches last year with indicators from the site:

Those investing in Allen will point to his three-year splits and regression to the mean. And, it could happen. However, the batted ball trends in ratio of fly balls to ground balls along with escalating exit velocities poke holes in the validity of a full rebound. But he needs to limit the damage of his four-seam when working from behind in the count. If working with less velocity, Allen could be nibbling.

Since saves scarcity will push his average draft position, here’s Allen’s projections from three different systems:

With a new manager and a contract in hand, Cody Allen will be given some leash as the closer. If, he can generate more ground balls to overcome the hard-hit spike from last year, the Steamer projection seems closest. However, Allen’s being targeted recently as a rebound candidate to his last three years overlooking the fraying peripheral statistics. If one takes Allen, be sure to back him up with Ty Buttrey . It will save potential headaches in the future if Allen’s velocity does not return and his ratios drift towards last season rather than the last three.

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Statistical Credits:

Fangraphs.com

BaseballSavant.com

BrooksBaseball.net

Steamerprojections.com

ZiPS courtesy of Dan Szymborski

ATC courtesy of Ariel Cohen