Flawed power hitters sometimes fill the fantasy landscape. Hunter Renfroe not only fits this bill, but resides in a very crowded outfield in San Diego. Renfroe did launch 26 home runs in only 117 games last year with 53 runs, 68 RBI, two stolen bases and a .248/.302/.504 slash line. He recorded a .256 isolated power, walked in 6.8 percent of his plate appearances and owned a 24.7 strikeout rate. His ability to generate fly balls, a high pull side rate and hard hit percentage spike to 47.2 percent last year, makes him intriguing as a player with 30 home run upside.

However, how many at-bats will Renfroe accrue next year along with how much regression occurs will determine his outcomes. For good measure, Renfroe also reduced his swinging strike percentage by 1.5 percent. Over the last two years, he’s hit 52 home runs in 856 at-bats (one every 16.46) with the 16th-best isolated power (.245) among hitters with at least 900 plate appearances. Renfroe’s 19.3 home run per fly ball percentage, 49.2 pull percentage, and 40.7 hard hit rate support his power breakout.

Before delving into his underlying data, here’s a look at Renfroe’s spray chart from last year:

Renfroe went on a tear hitting 12 home runs in 33 games from August 2nd on to fuel his surge last year. It’s apparent he can produce power, but maintaining the discipline and getting enough playing time remain in the air. Here are Renfroe’s expected power indicators versus his actual numbers from Statcast:

According to xSTATS, Renfroe owns a .243 expected-average the last two years with 47.2 expected home runs. This sits below his actual numbers in home runs but slightly above his batting average. Keep this in mind for his projection sets.

Using the Statcast data, Renfroe recorded 299 batted ball events with 37 barrels, an 89.9 MPH average exit velocity and a launch angle of 18.5 degrees. His 97.4mph average exit velocity on his fly balls and line drives ranked tied for eighth last season. Renfroe also notched 130 95mph-plus batted ball events last year for a 43.5 percent hard hit rate on this site.

As foreshadowed above, when perusing Renfroe’s projections, they vary due to playing time concerns along with balancing his batted ball profile:

Owners speculating on Renfroe hope he can reach the ATC or ZiPS numbers due to the spikes in home runs and RBI. If Renfroe loses playing time and ebbs towards THE BAT’s projection, he will disappoint in fantasy. A lot will lie in how much of the second half gains Hunter Renfroe can carry over to 2019, along with how many at-bats he can accrue. There’s the potential for 30 home runs in Renfroe’s potential outcomes, and given the chance, perhaps 35, but pay for the ATC projection and pray it’s not the worst case scenario.

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Statistical Credits:

Fangraphs.com

BaseballSavant.com

xSTATS.org

THE BAT courtesy of Derek Carty

ATC courtesy of Ariel Cohen

ZiPS courtesy of Dan Szymborski