Riding the wave of his strong second half and stolen base upside, Amed Rosario shot up the draft boards in November and December. Then, the Mets kept adding to the lineup and announced Rosario would hit seventh or eighth. Sounding the sad trombone, Rosario’s stock dropped as a result. New York could move him to ninth to ensure Rosario sees more fastballs, but hitting ahead of the pitcher could quell his stolen base totals.

Last year, Rosario appeared in 154 games with 76 runs, nine home runs, 51 RBI, 24 stolen bases and a .256/.295/.381 slash line. Rosario finished with a 4.9 percent walk rate and a 20.1 percent strikeout rate. His O-Swing (41.2 percent) raises some concern which aligns with worrying about hitting in front of the pitcher. Would Rosario see fewer fastballs? He hit .295 against the pitch according to Statcast with a .309 expected average.

Rosario recorded a 76 percent contact rate and caught fire in the second half. With 72 hits after the All-Star break and 32 in September alone, Rosario seemed comfortable hitting atop the order. Over his last 46 games, Rosario went 60-for-198 (.303) with nine doubles, two triples, five home runs, 22 RBI, 32 runs and 13 stolen bases. He also swiped 18 bases in the second half along with converting 23 of his last 28 stolen base attempts. It’s apparent Rosario’s fast and his Statcast speed data confirms it:

Staying with Statcast, Rosario recorded 441 batted ball events with 17 barrels (3.9 percent), a 87.3 MPH average exit velocity and 7.2 degree launch angle. Until he gets more elevation, his power will stay capped at 10-to-12 this year, but he’s still a work in progress. On xSTATS, Rosario ended the year with 7.3 expected home runs and a .259/.298/.360 expected slash line. Not much different from his actual numbers.

Trying to project Rosario will be difficult since much of his production will be tied to hitting near the bottom of the batting order. Here are three different projections as a baseline:

Owners trying to procure at least 20 steals from shortstop can speculate on Amed Rosario . His speed metrics will allow this. However, hoping for 30 or more will be tough if he’s pigeon-holed eighth in the lineup. Much of his value will be tied to how much his second half surge carries over along with how many stolen base attempts he totals in 2019. Pay for the ATC projection, but understand the runs and stolen base totals could be a bit lower than listed.

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Statistical Credits:

Fangraphs.com

BaseballSavant.com

xSTATS.org

THE BAT courtesy of Derek Carty

ATC courtesy of Ariel Cohen

ZiPS courtesy of Dan Szymborski