Instead of musing about a potential Jorge Polanco breakout in 2018, he missed 80 games due to a suspension for performance enhancing drugs. Polanco did appear in 77 games with 38 runs, six home runs, 42 RBI, seven stolen bases and a .288/.345/.427 slash line. On the precipice of his Age-25 season, Polanco will turn 26 in July.

Over analyzing his small sample size from last year could be misleading, but Polanco’s ability to produce home runs and stolen bases will be enticing when rounding out rosters in drafts. As a sweetener, Polanco will open the year hitting second for an improved Twins lineup. Last year, the second hitters on Minnesota accrued 657 at-bats with 92 runs and 79 RBI. If Polanco reaches 550 at-bats, his owners stand to profit.

During the last three years, Polanco’s played in 279 games with 122 runs, 23 home runs, 143 RBI, 24 stolen bases and a .271/.327/.418 slash. His isolated power dipped some last year but it’s a solid .147 in this sample with a 7.2 walk percentage and 16.2 strikeout rate. Polanco’s produced more fly balls than ground balls and if he can carry over last year’s gains in hard hit rate, Polanco could hit 15 or more home runs. However, there will be a ceiling around 18 unless something out of the ordinary happens.

According to xSTATS, Polanco’s expected average over the last three years of .284 provides hope he can hold the higher average from 2018 going forward. This could translate into more runs and RBI to benefit his counting statistics. Polanco’s 24.7 expected home runs reside above his actual total from this time frame if anticipating growth in the category.

Trying to resolve Polanco’s potential growth in power to his Statcast data from last year will be intriguing. He recorded 244 batted ball events with only nine barrels and an 83.8 MPH average exit velocity. But Polanco did finish with a 15.5 degree launch angle and he’s registered an angle above 14.8 degrees in each of the last three years. Polanco can elevate his batted balls, but can he generate enough exit velocity to get them over the fence?

Using the zone profiles on Statcast, here’s Polanco’s expected batting average numbers and his power indicators from last year:

It could be Polanco morphs into an accumulator in terms of home runs and stolen bases on sheer volume. Since he’s just entering his power peak, there’s room for growth, but this year will be telling if an uptick in hard hit rates emerge. For now, his projections go under valued due to his potential to hit in the top third of an improved lineup and with solid numbers in his past:

As a starting shortstop in 15-team formats or a middle infielder with upside in 12-team leagues, targeting Jorge Polanco makes sense given his ability to get double digits in both home runs and stolen bases. If he reaches the Steamer numbers, profit ensues, especially if Polanco migrates his average towards his expected rate from the last three years. Speculation should be justified.

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Statistical Credits:

Fangraphs.com

BaseballSavant.com

xSTATS.org

THE BAT courtesy of Derek Carty

ATC courtesy of Ariel Cohen

Steamerprojections.com