After a breakout in 2017, Domingo Santana transformed into an afterthought last year only appearing in 85 games for Milwaukee and he also incurred a demotion to Triple-A for 55 games. Santana’s one year removed from 30 home runs and 15 stolen bases. Last season, he only hit five home runs, stole one base and slashed .265/.328/.412 in his 211 at-bats in the majors. Needing a change in scenery, and clear path to playing time, Santana heads to Seattle with both in hand.

Not only did Santana spend time in the minors, but his swinging strike rate spiked to 15.8 percent last year while his contact cratered to 66.4 percent and his O-Swing (swings and misses outside the strike zone) increased by over four percent. However, Santana did not pout at Triple-A. He hit .283/.401/.487 with eight home runs in 187 at-bats. It remains to be seen how much fantasy production Santana can recover, but entering his Age-26 season gives him some leeway.

Over the last three years, Santana’s accrued 982 at-bats with 46 home runs, 137 RBI, 18 stolen bases and a .270/.355/.470 slash line. When comparing his actual numbers to his expected ones (xSTATS), Santana’s expected average of .268 and 42.7 expected home runs reinforce his results within this sample. Here’s a look at Santana’s fly balls and line drives in this time frame with Seattle as the backdrop:

Santana’s increased his launch angle in each of the last two years and recorded an average exit velocity above 89 MPH in each of them. Simple migration to the mean against fastballs could provide owners with a much anticipated rebound.

As evidenced in the chart above, Santana can hit home runs to any part of a ballpark. In fact, his ability to drive the ball to the opposite field resulted in an opening day grand slam in Japan. With his spray chart in mind, here’s Santana’s career numbers by direction:

Like many power hitters, when Santana pulls the ball, it often results in a ground ball. However, when he goes the opposite way, he hits a fly ball more than 50 percent of the time with a hard hit rate near 40 percent. Given his propensity to swing and miss, Santana’s power will need to surface in order for him to return a profit on investment.

Before delving into his projections, it’s worth noting the irony of Santana replacing Nelson Cruz in the Mariners lineup. Here’s a look at their numbers by breakout season with their ages included:

Making comparisons like this prove to be less than ideal, but, still can give owners a grasp of a player’s ceiling. Cruz owned better discipline metrics. However, he’s also four years older in this scenario. Santana rated higher in terms of contact percentage and in hard hit rate. After last year’s struggles and limited sample, the projection systems seem to overlook Santana’s expected batting average in their outlooks:

Paying for a full repeat of Domingo Santana ’s 2017 breakout would be a lottery ticket. However, even with his price point about to rise as drafts approach, Santana could generate 25 home runs with 7-to-10 stolen bases with an average of .258 or better. This seems to be his sweet spot and if the Mariners elevate him in the batting order this year, his counting statistics will also benefit. Temper expectations, but Santana should be a worthy target as a fourth fantasy outfielder with upside in 2019.

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Statistical Credits:

Fangraphs.com

BaseballSavant.com

xSTATS.org

THE BAT courtesy of Derek Carty

ATC courtesy of Ariel Cohen

ZiPS courtesy of Dan Szymborksi