As baseball transitions to becoming a young man’s game, players like Jake Bauers go under the microscope. He played in 96 games as a 22-year-old with the Rays scoring 48 runs with 11 home runs, 48 RBI, six stolen bases and a .201/.316/.384 slash line. Bauers started strong with a .252/.368/.496 line in the first half while racking up a .244 isolated power and 48 percent hard hit rate. However, in the second half, things fell apart.

Bauers finished with a .167/.281/.307 line over his last 59 games spiking his pull percentage (53.5 percent) and cratering in hard hit rate (34.9 percent). Of more concern, his BABIP plummeted to .215 after the All-Star break causing the low average and his strikeout percentage rose to 30.5 percent. Trading line drives for ground balls usually does not work out in terms of batting average in the major leagues. As an illustration, here’s Bauers chart on batted balls hit less than 200 feet:

His batted ball data could be a key to getting Bauers on track for 2019. A fresh start in Cleveland and in a park better suited for his swing will be a nice start. Bauers did finish with the fifth highest percentage of extra-base hits (53.8 percent) of batters with at least 200 plate appearances racking up 22 doubles, three triples and 11 home runs of his 65 hits. At Triple-A, Bauers appeared in 184 games over two seasons with 110 runs, 18 home runs, 87 RBI, 30 stolen bases and a .268/.365/.416 slash. Here’s his spray chart courtesy of MLBfarm.com at the minor league level level:

Note the power he displayed hitting the ball to the opposite field and remember this later on. It will be important when trying to project Bauers. To underscore this point, here’s Bauers’ heat map of his fly balls and line drives in 683 at-bats in Triple-A:

Again, Bauers fueled his higher average with a willingness to hit the ball up the middle and to the opposite field when hitting fly balls and line drives. This did not translate last year with Tampa Bay. Especially in the second half when Bauers tried to overcompensate by pulling the ball too much for home runs and straying from his strengths in the charts above. Here’s Bauers heat map from 2018 with the Rays:

Suddenly, his batted ball data shifted to his pull side and into the teeth of the dreaded shift in the majors. One can hit over the shift, but it’s difficult to hit through it. Hence his drop in BABIP and performance in the second half. Bauers can beat this by getting back to his roots up the middle and using the opposite field. When hitting to the center of the field last season, he owned a 51.5 hard hit percentage. When pulling the ball, his hard hit rate dropped to 35.3 but hitting to the opposite field, it finished at 37.2 percent.

Charts can identify the problem, but it will take Bauers adjusting in the majors against the best pitchers in the world. His age and new ballpark will enable this, if he can make the necessary alterations. Bauers zone profiles reveal he’s a capable hitter:

Bauers can turn on an inside pitch but also handle the upper middle of the strike zone. Hope lies in his red numbers on the outer third in the middle of the charts. Taking the ball the other way with authority could unlock a bounce back season. In fact, his projections seem to account for it:

Armed with eligibility at first base and outfield in most formats, Bauers represents upside later in drafts. If he can reach the ZiPS slash line, he could be a bargain if he can accrue the counting statistics, especially the stolen bases. One never can roster enough players with double-digit upside on both home runs and stolen bases.

Ultimately, Jake Bauers ’ season will come down to how he overcomes the second half swoon. If he consolidates his skills, there’s upside in a post-hype sleeper role. When watching his at-bats in spring, see if he’s going to the opposite field and not rolling over outside pitches into the shift. This will open the door for the projections above to be a reality, not speculation.

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Statistical Credits:

Fangraphs.com

BaseballSavant.com

MLBfarm.com

Baseball-Reference.com

THE BAT courtesy of Derek Carty

ATC courtesy of Ariel Cohen

ZiPS courtesy of Dan Szymborski