With major league baseball and fantasy owners alike fawning over younger players, crafty veterans like Edwin Encarnación continue to drop in average draft position as the season approaches. Encarnacion’s been one of the most consistent power hitters over the last seven years with at least 30 home runs in each season and driving in at least 100 in all but one of them. Yet, his slow first half last year, along with turning 36 seems to make fantasy owners wary. Encarnacion opened as the 118th player between November and December, but in the first two weeks of March, dropped to 139th overall on average.

He appeared in 137 games last year with 74 runs, 32 home runs, 107 RBI, three stolen bases and a .246/.336/.474 slash line. His isolated power declined for the fourth straight year and his average decreased for the third one in a row. Not great trends, but he did hit .283/.377/.489 in 51 games after the All-Star break last season with 10 home runs in 180 at-bats.

Moving to Seattle can take away some of Encarnacion’s appeal, but he still generated 44 barrels last year of his 375 batted ball events to finish 28th in the majors in the category. He also produced an average exit velocity of 89.9 MPH with an 18.1-degree launch angle. His age can signal a decline, but due to Encarnacion’s steady production, he could be an overlooked commodity.

Over the last three years, Encarnacion played in 457 games with 271 runs, 114 home runs, 344 RBI, seven stolen bases and a .257/.358/.507 slash in 1,666 at-bats. This represents the fifth most home runs, second most RBI, the 22nd best on-base plus slugging percentage and the eighth best isolated power in this time frame. When comparing this to his xSTATS, Encarnacion owns a .262 expected average with 114.1 expected home runs. So, the power and average should translate in the Pacific Northwest. Here’s all of Encarnacion’s fly balls and line drives from the last three seasons with Seattle as the backdrop:

Replacing Nelson Cruz to open the season, Encarnacion should be able to replicate his power in spite of the move. Encarnacion generated fly balls 42.4 percent of the time the last three years with a 21-home run per fly ball percentage, pulled the ball in over 48 percent of his at-bats and a 39 percent hard hit rate. Knowing his ranks the last three years, here’s Encarnacion’s projections for 2019:

If his second half rebound can carry over, Encarnacion could exceed his projections in terms of average due to owned skills. He did get more aggressive last year registering the highest swinging strike percentage of his career and his contact fell for the third straight time. There’s some slight decay in his game, but not enough to justify his present price point.

Even if Edwin Encarnación only met his THE BAT projection, he’s still a bargain past pick number 125 in drafts. Usually a name gets too much credit in fantasy, but Encarnacion seems to be overlooked this season, which creates a unique window to target power in the 10th round in 12-team drafts.

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Statistical Credits:

Fangraphs.com

BaseballSavant.com

xSTATS.org

THE BAT courtesy of Derek Carty

ATC courtesy of Ariel Cohen

ZiPS courtesy of Dan Szymborski

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