As a result of pitchers continuing to appear in the first three rounds of drafts, it will be important to identify later round upside targets to round out fantasy rotations. On the surface, it seems like Joe Musgrove disappointed again in 2018 with six wins among his 15 decisions, but hope lies in his ability to not only refine his arsenal, but stay healthy for 150-plus innings. Musgrove did strikeout 100 batters overs his 115.1 innings last year against only 23 walks for a tidy 15.8 strikeouts minus walks percentage.

He also maintained his swinging strike percentage over 11 percent for the second straight season and increased his O-Swing percentage (swings and misses outside the strike zone) to almost 36 percent. From his last start in June until August 18th, Musgrove surged to a 2.52 ERA, a 38:11 strikeout to walk rate, a 1.04 WHIP and limited hitters to a .221 batting average against. Within this streak, Musgrove used more sliders and cutters but reduced using his change-up.

For a look at his arsenal, here’s Musgrove’s arsenal using Statcast’s plot maps:

Like many pitchers, Musgrove’s started to work at the top of and above the strike zone to enhance his results. Fastballs up in the zone allow him to change levels with his slider, cutter and change to increase swinging strikes. Note the averages and expected averages within his repertoire:

It remains to be seen if Musgrove will increase his slider and changeup usage, but he could see a spike in his strikeout rates if he does. While regression can consume a pitcher, Musgrove could see improvement in terms of expected average with his slider, sinker (which yields a negative launch angle) and change. Unlocking these pitches along with health will ultimately determine how his season evolves.

When perusing his expected statistics on xSTATS, Musgrove finished last year with a kwFIP of 3.92 and expected WHIP of 1.15. These provide a solid baseline to work from when comparing them to his projections:

It appears ATC sees the most upside in Musgrove, even with fewer innings. It accounts for the sliding scale of his xFIP of 3.92 aligning with his kwFIP cited above. Ultimately, how many innings Musgrove logs will determine his fantasy worth. Being limited early in camp does not give fantasy owners confidence, however, Musgrove’s being drafted near pick number 217 with a range of 183-to-249. This leaves room for profit.

Heed how he progresses in camp and note the strong run from June to August last year to provide a threshold of future success. Musgrove could be a hidden gem in the 14th round of 15-team drafts and after round 15 in 12-teamers. Statistics suggest Joe Musgrove could take the next step, health and refining his arsenal will decide it.

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Statistical Credits:

Fangraphs.com

BaseballSavant.com

BrooksBaseball.net

xSTATS.org

THE BAT courtesy of Derek Carty

ATC courtesy of Ariel Cohen

Steamerprojections.com