Recency bias can cloud how fantasy owners target closers from season to season, but Jose Leclerc could be on the precipice of a breakout. He finished last year with 21 consecutive appearances during which LeClerc yielded only five hits and six walks while striking out 32 with 12 saves in them. LeClerc finished 2018 with two wins, 12 saves and 15 holds over 59 games.
Within his outings, Leclerc recorded 85 strikeouts against 25 walks with a 1.56 ERA, 3.10 xFIP and 0.85 WHIP. He boasted a 38.1 percent strikeout rate accompanied an 11.2 percent walk rate. LeClerc finished with a 17.1 swinging strike percentage, limited contact to 62.9 percent and generated a 31.6 percent chase rate.
LeClerc’s .126 batting average against represents the lowest among qualified relievers last year while his ERA ranked third overall behind only Blake Treinen and Jeremy Jeffress . As a part of his late season surge, Leclerc recorded a 0.55 ERA in his last 32 games, allowed a run in only three of his last 44 outings for a tidy 1.26 ERA and struck out 66 hitters in this span.
Among qualified American League relievers, LeClerc ranked second in on-base plus slugging against (.431), ERA (1.56), third in WHIP (0.85) and seventh in strikeouts per nine innings (13.27). Only Tony Watson finished with a higher rated changeup in Fangraphs weighted pitch ranks and LeClerc’s swinging strike percentage tied for fifth of all relievers.
Part of LeClerc’s late season success lies within his cutting down on walks. LeClerc only issued six his last 21 games, but free passes hurt him earlier in his career. It’s yet to be determined if he will carry over the gains in control and success, but his arsenal provides hope it can be repeatable.
Using Brooks Baseball’s whiff percentage by pitch, here’s a look at how he used his pitches by month last year:
He ditched the sinker after July with great success in the second half. He did mix in a curve, but not all the time. LeClerc primarily relied on his four-seam fastball, his change-up and split-finger fastball while working in his curve.
Shifting to Statcast, LeClerc proves to be an uncomfortable at-bat since he can work up in the zone with his fastball then bury his change or curve for strikeouts. A look at his pitches using Statcast’s 3-D imaging yields this:
During this outing, LeClerc struck out three Padres in September. According to Statcast, LeClerc’s main three pitches provided the following results:
- Four-seam fastball - .150 batting average against, .150 xBA, 22.5 percent strikeout rate, 30 percent whiff rate
- Slider - .125 batting average against, .112 xBA, 58.9 percent strikeout rate, 56.1 percent whiff rate
- Change-up - .000 batting average against, .101 xBA, 41.7 percent strikeout rate, 57.7 percent whiff rate
While Brooks Baseball lists his arsenal with a split-fingered fastball, Statcast labels it a slider. Either way, it’s nasty. Before delving into his projections, they will incorporate his early career struggles with command. According to xSTATS, LeClerc recorded a 2.70 kwFIP, which along with his 3.10 xFIP form a realistic range of predicted ERA for 2019. Due to his strong finish, the projection systems will not account for a full change in his outlook.
Across all four projection systems, LeClerc’s due for some correction, but how much will depend on when to target him. Here are his projections in order to create a baseline:
Personally, I’m taking the over on 30 saves, barring a trade, for Jose Leclerc and 90-plus strikeouts if he reaches 65 or more innings. Last year, it seemed like LeClerc finally gained confidence in his arsenal after nibbling early in his career. His WHIP could migrate towards the 1.05-1.10 level, but it would take major regression to see it ebb towards levels above 1.20 or 1.30 as reflected above. It’s alright for projections to be cautious, relying on a gut call in regards to LeClerc.
For reinforcement, here’s his Statcast table:
Note all the red marks which reference great. Jose Leclerc finally evolved into the reliever many thought he could be last season. If he continues to pound the strike zone and hones his arsenal, a spike to 100 strikeouts could ensue. At his present price point, LeClerc represents a second or third tier closer who could finish in the top-five at season’s end. His stuff is that good. Of course, he could also struggle with his command and be demoted, being a closer lends itself to volatility. Suffice it to say, LeClerc’s stuff should be worth the risk.
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Statistical Credits:
Fangraphs.com, BrooksBaseball.net, BaseballSavant.com, xSTATS.org, THE BAT courtesy of Derek Carty, ATC courtesy of Ariel Cohen, Steamerprojections.com, ZiPS courtesy of Dan Szymborski