Riding an almost perfect storm of production, José Ramírez became the third player in Cleveland team history to record at least 30 home runs and 30 stolen bases in a season. Ramirez finished one double and one home run shy of being the fourth major league player with at least 40 doubles, 40 home runs, 30 stolen bases and more than 100 RBI. He did reach 30 home runs and 20 stolen bases within the first 100 games of 2018. Ramirez appeared in 157 games with 110 runs, 39 home runs, 105 RBI, 34 stolen bases and a .270/.387/.552 slash line.

Perhaps his late season swoon harpooned his MVP chances, but Ramirez finished the year tied for fourth in home runs, tied for fifth in stolen bases, seventh in runs and fifth in walks (106) in the majors. Although he only hit .172 over his last 40 games (25-for-145), Ramirez still maintained his elite plate discipline with 67 walks his last 88 games. 

Due to his surge last year, Ramirez finds himself in the conversation as a top-5 pick in drafts for the year ahead. On the surface, it seems like Ramirez will be a safe bet given his age (26), walking more than he struck out and the huge counting statistics. However, there could be a couple of chinks in the armor when taking him this early.

Ramirez rode his increased propensity to pull the ball for a boost in power. He pulled the ball 50 percent of the time last year with his isolated power finishing at a career best .282 and obvious career best in home runs as well. It seems as though he traded some doubles for home runs, but will this be sustainable?

It’s apparent the early season power blossomed when Ramirez pulled the ball. Especially given the decline in pull percentage, hard hit rate and power totals in last year’s second half. Although cherry picking the statistics, Ramirez only hit .218/.366/.427 after the All-Star break in 63 games. This includes his struggles highlighted above during his last 40 contests. For the visual learners, here’s his 25-game rolling chart illustrating Ramirez’s hard-hit rates, pull percent and home runs per fly ball percentage:

Hope lies within his three-year averages within which he’s played in 464 games with 302 runs, 79 home runs, 264 RBI, 74 stolen bases and a .299/.375/.531 slash line. His average sits just below his expected average of .301 in this time frame. Keep this in mind when setting his projections, Ramirez stands to benefit from positive migration in average for 2019.

It’s trying to discern if he can hit 30 or more home runs which could impact his value compared to his draft price will matter most. Even when Ramirez did not launch 39 home runs, he still hit 29 in 2017. He’s not going to fall off a cliff in regards to power, but paying for a full repeat would be a risky venture. Especially knowing Ramirez does not generate high hard-hit rates. Not on Fangraphs nor according to Statcast data.

When viewing his projections, there’s two schools of thought. One, his average will hover closer to a median of last year and his last three-year slash lines. Or, his average will rebound but the power will ebb closer to 2017 than last season. Here’s his projections:

José Ramírez will remain a fantasy asset due to his elite plate discipline. He should see growth in his average closer to THE BAT or the ZiPS numbers as well. But, be sure to pay for 28-to-32 home runs in 2019 rather than last season’s total. Factor in the counting statistics approaching 100 in runs and RBI as well. Ramirez will be worth a first round pick, but closer to the middle of the first round than as the third overall selection. It’s splitting hairs, but invest with eyes wide open.

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Statistical Credits:

Fangraphs.com, BaseballSavant.com, xSTATS.org, THE BAT courtesy of Derek Carty, ATC courtesy of Ariel Cohen, Steamerprojections.com, ZiPS courtesy of Dan Szymborski