As with most breakouts, playing time plays a part in initiating them. This rang true for Mallex Smith who appeared in 141 games, 126 starts, last year finishing with 65 runs, two home runs, 40 RBI, 40 stolen bases and an eye popping .296/.367/.406 slash line. Of course, his average benefited from a spike in BABIP (.366) and a line drive percentage of almost 25 percent according to Fangraphs.

Smith finished the year as one of three major league players to accrue at least 40 stolen bases and racked up 26 infield hits. So speed enhances his value. Statcast rated him 13th in sprint speed with Smith averaging 29.8 feet per second last season. With stolen bases stagnating in baseball, fantasy owners could be drawn to Smith in order to build a balanced roster.

In an effort to determine his overall value, exploring his breakout could provide whether or not he will be able to return value. Starting with some of his splits, Smith hit a robust .347/.415/.471 with a .415 BABIP in 242 at-bats at home in Tropicana Field last year. Moving to Seattle, he will not benefit from the fast turf on ground balls. Smith recorded a 49.7 ground ball rate last year, so this will be important to remember. On the road, Smith slashed .244/.317/.340 in 238 at-bats and a .313 BABIP which could be an anomaly or something to consider in the year ahead.

Being a left-handed hitter, many foresee struggles against same handed pitching. However, Smith did hit .337/.384/.433 during his limited sample of 104 at-bats last year versus southpaws while slashing .285/.362/.399 against right-handed pitchers. This gives hope to Smith hitting atop the lineup for Seattle, a must for his owners in order to profit this season.

Prior to 2018, Smith accrued 445 at-bats with 14 doubles, eight triples and six home runs during his time with Atlanta and Tampa Bay. Using his surge in line drives, Smith hit .688 in 93 at-bats on them last year with 15 doubles and six triples. Although his home run total dropped, Smith’s .290 isolated power on line drives hints he could maintain the extra-base hit jump from last season. He finished with 27 doubles, 10 triples and two home runs.

In regards to plate discipline, Smith also made strides last year. He reduced his swinging strike percentage to 11.5 percent and improved his contact rate to 76.6 percent, both career bests. Unlike many profiles, Smith will not be a Statcast hero in regards to launch angle or hard hit rates, he needs to keep the ball on the ground and hit line drives to succeed. Here’s a look at his heat map last year on all of his batted ball data:

Smith tends to pull the ball on the ground but hit line drives to the opposite field and to center. He recorded a .301 average on ground balls last year with bunt hits and infield hits working in congress to Smith’s advantage.

Everything galvanized in the second half for Smith. In 55 games he scored 36 runs with 12 doubles, five triples, one home run, 20 RBI, 24 stolen bases and a .311/.390/.429 slash. Keying on his average and on-base gains, Smith’s BABIP jumped to .374 but he also walked 9.5 percent of the time against a 15.7 strikeout percentage. Smith also reduced his swinging strike percentage to 10 after the break with a 79 percent contact rate and Z-Contact (in the strike zone) of 85 percent.

Trying to discern how Smith will do in 2019 will depend on how he adapts to hitting in Seattle and where he ends up in the lineup. Since the Mariners allowed Nelson Cruz to leave via free agency and traded Robinson Canó , it’s likely Mitch Haniger will move down to third or fourth in the lineup opening the door for Smith to bat leadoff. Smith’s career on-base percentage of .346 ranks above Dee Gordon (.322), plus, Smith will take a walk.

If Smith spends the season as the Mariners primary leadoff hitter, he will continue to provide stolen bases. Here’s a look at his projections across four different systems:

Due to the volatility within his projections, it’s going to be difficult to efficiently value him for 2019. Looking at Smith’s expected statistics, he finished last season with an expected BABIP of .347 and a .283/.356/.368 expected slash. Over his career, Smith owns a .349 BABIP with a .277/.346/.384 slash. This could represent a solid floor on batting average.

If Smith can hit .270 or better this year, he will still provide value at his present price point. Seattle’s amalgamation of leadoff hitters accrued 700 at-bats scoring 100 runs with 49 RBI and 28 stolen bases. Dee Gordon recorded the most at-bats (425) hitting first but with a .282/.302/.346 slash and 50 runs in them. Barring a collapse in his plate discipline gains and carrying a BABIP near .350, Smith could score 85 or more runs with 40-plus stolen bases over a full season.

Mallex Smith does not come without some concern based on his road splits last year, but his 25 percent line drive rate in the second half along with his speed will keep him relevant in fantasy. Using NFBC average draft position as a guide, Smith’s the 23rd outfielder taken in drafts since the start of the new year in 15-team drafts at pick 88 with a range of 44-to-121 in them. His value dips slightly in 12-team formats with him being the 27th outfielder off the board on average at pick 98 with a range of 67-to-122.

If feeling the need for speed, Smith makes sense at his present cost and the deeper the format, the more value he provides. There will be regression in his average, but more towards the .270 threshold than some of his projections above. If Smith scores 85 runs with 45 stolen bases, he’s well worth speculating on.

Addendum: According to early reports in camp, Mallex Smith will be limited in workouts due to a sore elbow and forearm in his throwing arm. This will need to be monitored as drafts approach. 

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Statistical Credits:

Fangraphs.com, BaseballSavant.com, xSTATS.org, THE BAT courtesy of Derek Carty, ATC courtesy of Ariel Cohen, Steamerprojections.com, ZiPS courtesy of Dan Szymborski