Representing of the more predictable profiles entering last season, Brian Dozier not only collapsed entering free agency, he did so without much warning. Due to his previous second half surges, Dozier owners patiently awaited the pending statistical corrections which did not occur. Trying to make sense of it all, Dozier will try to regain fantasy owner’s trust and better contract offers after accepting a one-year deal with the Nationals.

Dozier still finished with 21 home runs last year at a position where power can be difficult to find, but his four-year streak of at least 100 runs ended along with driving in fewer runs. But, it gets worse. His BABIP cratered to .240 fueling his .215/.305/.391 slash line. So, Dozier scored fewer runs, hit fewer home runs, drove in less runs and stole fewer bases last year.

Perhaps injury played a role? According to this piece from Bill Plunkett of the Orange County Register, Dozier played through a lingering knee injury all season including a deep bone bruise. Hitters struggle when their legs (foundation) incur injury, so if healthy in the spring, Dozier should be primed for a rebound.

Over the last three years, Dozier ranks first in home runs (97), RBI (265) and isolated power (.228) while finishing second in runs (291) among all qualified second basemen. Within this time frame, Dozier recorded a 44.7 fly ball rate, pulled the ball 52.3 percent of the time and a 35.2 hard hit percentage. Although he profiles as a power hitter at his position, Dozier’s 8.9 swinging strike percentage and 25.1 O-Swing rate (swings at pitches outside the strike zone) illustrate he’s not a free-swinger at the plate. Armed with a 10.3 walk percentage over his last 2,036 plate appearances, Dozier will slot in well for Washington.

Joining a loaded Nationals lineup won’t hurt either. With an early projection of hitting sixth, Dozier will adjust from hitting atop the lineup with the Twins to a more traditional run producing spot in the order, which should suit his skillset. Especially with last year’s separation of his O-Swing and hard-hit percentages:

Using Statcast, Dozier’s barrels fell below previous production with only 27 among his 429 batted ball events. But hope lies within his 17.8-degree launch angle and a bounce back against fastballs:

  • Dozier versus fastballs in 2017: .291 average, .572 slugging percentage
  • Dozier versus fastballs in 2018: .240 average, .474 slugging percentage

Migration to the mean would not only help his 2019 profile, but allow Dozier to return to the top-five at his position in fantasy. Much of this will be tied to his health, but with a depressed average draft spot and fantasy owners burned by last year’s production, he could be a prime target while others chase youth.

Steamer projects Dozier for 146 games, 563 at-bats, 73 runs, 25 home runs, 71 RBI, 12 stolen bases and a .235/.322/.427 slash. Given his last three-year averages and production, he should be able to finish with better averages along with more RBI. First, here’s his last three years including all fly balls and line drives with his new ballpark as the backdrop:

Note the chance of more power using the middle of the diamond and right-center field. Using Dozier’s xSTATS, his expected average of .251 over the last three seasons along with 97.1 expected home runs almost directly marry his production within this time frame. Many will fade Dozier in the year ahead, but this landing spot should protect his rebound.

Last year, the sixth spot in the Nationals lineup scored 73 runs with 91 RBI over 598 at-bats with a .246/.330/.413 slash. Again, symbiosis. Use Dozier’s reliable health score and adjust for fewer runs but more RBI in a long lineup. All he will he need, positive migration to the mean.

Bounce back veterans do not move the sexy meter in fantasy baseball, but they make solid investments, for 2019, meet Brian Dozier ’s mantra.

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Statistical Credits:

Fangraphs.com, BaseballSavant.com, xSTATS.org, Steamerprojections.com, Baseball-Reference.com