Representing one of the most polarizing profiles entering the 2019 season, Adalberto Mondesí will be hotly debated in regards on when to target him. First, the small sample size crowd will cite his second half breakout fueled by BABIP and 27 stolen bases in 54 games as unsustainable. And they would be correct; but, with so many analysts critical of Mondesi, could this create a unique buying opportunity?

For starters, here’s a poll run on Twitter to size up the market while the NFL still demands the headlines:

 


Like Mondesi’s second half, a small sample to digest, but somewhat telling. It’s also reflective of the market adjustment in NFBC drafts since the inception of January during which Mondesi keeps his 44th overall average draft position, but with a range of 34-to-52 within it. Ultimately, Mondesi’s fantasy return on investment will boil down to where he’s taken in drafts or costs in auctions, but anticipating what to expect will be key.

Starting with his second half, Mondesi matched Bryce Harper ’s home run total (11) while stealing one less base (27) than major league leading Whit Merrifield , in only 54 games. On the season, Mondesi appeared in 75 games with 47 runs, 14 home runs, 37 RBI, 32 stolen bases and a .276/.306/.498 slash line. His 275 at-bat sample accompanied a 3.8 walk percentage, striking out 26.5 percent of the time and a .335 BABIP.

Plate discipline will not be a calling card for Mondesi, which helps his cynics when forecasting the future. In spite of this, Mondesi finished fourth in the American League in stolen bases at a time when the category continues to be in decline for fantasy. He’s also not a “one-trick pony” representing a player who only helps teams in stolen bases. Mondesi can hit the ball well, when he makes contact, slated to hit second and on a team which will be aggressive on the bases.

Kansas City finished fourth in stolen base attempts per game (0.96) and in the second half, with Mondesi fully activated, the Royals recorded more steals (74) than any other team and only tried one fewer stolen base than the Rays after the break. In the midst of a rebuild, Kansas City should remain active on the basepaths building its roster on speed and defense.

It’s going to be marrying Mondesi’s lack of discipline at the plate to his ability to be a fantasy effector when he’s on base. Herein lies the debate. Starting with his aggressiveness as a hitter, Mondesi’s 18.2 swinging strike percentage, if he accrued enough at-bats to qualify, would place him tied for second, with Javier Báez in the category. Not bad company, since Baez also broke out last season, but in a different way.

Many will suggest taking Jonathan Villar later in drafts will be a way to get Mondesi’s production as a reduced cost, which could be true. In terms of discipline, Mondesi mirrors another flawed middle infielder, with power. Intrigued? First, here’s a chart of Mondesi’s season last year versus Jonathan Schoop ’s 2017 and Villar’s 2016 career year:

Villar owns the best on-base ability of the three and contact rates in the chart. While Mondesi can match Villar in steals, his underlying data aligns more with Schoop. While not being satisfied with this comparison sample, shifting the numbers to Statcast, here’s some interesting tidbits:

Mondesi matched Villar’s career year in terms of average exit velocity on fly balls and line drives, which rank higher than Schoop’s. For reference, Schoop hit 32 home runs in 2017. Also, Mondesi’s sprint speed sits above Villar’s in a season he stole 62 bases. Not suggesting Mondesi will hit more home runs than Schoop or steal more bases than Villar within this sampling, just aligning the data for digestion.

Javier Báez used his aggressive first pitch swing approach for success last year and Mondesi could imitate this. Mondesi attacked the first pitch 42.3 percent of the time compared to 37 percent for Baez. Again, Mondesi may not be as productive on this approach, but it’s worth noting. When putting the first pitch in play, Mondesi hit .395 with four doubles, one triple and two home runs resulting in a .674 slugging percentage.

So, after all the gleaning all the numbers so far, it’s going to come down to how much contact Mondesi can make and will he be able to carry over his hard hit data. Mondesi’s 67 contact percentage should create some concern. Here’s his strikeout chart, once again courtesy of Statcast:

Mondesi will chase high strikes, especially fastballs, but of course, his isolated power zone profile from Brooks Baseball illustrates he can turn on a high fastball as well:

Adalberto Mondesí also showed no major signs of disparity as a switch hitter, unlike new teammate Billy Hamilton . Here’s Mondesi’s splits last year:

  • As a LH versus RHP: 185 at-bats, 31 runs, nine home runs, 23 RBI, .270/.303/.486, 4.5 walk percentage, 29.8 strikeout percentage, .216 isolated power, 41.5 hard hit rate
  • As a RH versus LHP: 90 at-bats, 16 runs, five home runs, 14 RBI, .289/.312/.522, 2.2 walk percentage, 19.4 strikeout percentage, .233 isolated power, 45.8 hard hit rate

So, when trying to arrive at a projection, Mondesi will be tough to predict. One cannot simply extrapolate his numbers from last season to 550 at-bats. Using his numbers in Triple-A, Mondesi played in 128 games at the level in parts of the last three years with a .292/.328/.527 slash, five percent walk rate and 24.5 strikeout percentage. He averaged a home run every 26.16 at-bats. As a minor league player, Mondesi recorded 126 stolen bases in 152 attempts for an 83 percent success rate. So far in the majors, Mondesi’s 46-for-56 (82 percent conversion rate).

Steamer projects Mondesi for 73 runs, 21 home runs, 71 RBI, 42 stolen bases and a .252/.292/.436 slash line over 150 games. Very optimistic for a traditionally conservative projection tool. Mondesi owns the highest stolen base total in the projection subset and the most home runs plus steals (63) even over Mike Trout ’s (60) and Mookie Betts ’ (54) totals.

Taking into account Mondesi’s age, he will not turn 24 until July, against upside, he’s a classic risk versus reward player. He could take a step backwards like Byron Buxton , a similarly challenged hitter in regards to contact along with a propensity to swing and miss. If Mondesi craters and ends up in the minors, he’s a bust. However, if Mondesi reaches the Steamer projection, he’s worth every penny.

Roster construction and draft day price will factor in when trying to decide on targeting Mondesi. He will not be on a roster at all cost approach from a personal standpoint, but if paired with a batting average insulated team, Mondesi could be a difference maker. Variance will always be a part of fantasy baseball and Adalberto Mondesí sits on the precipice of the word.

Mondesi could steal 50 or more bases with 20-plus home runs yet still be worth the risk even if he hits .240-ish. He could also end up in the minors if his swing and miss issues induce a prolonged slump. Owners will hope he can convert the Javier Báez aggression attacking fastballs for a strong 2019, but paying for an extrapolation of last year’s second half could be perilous. Keep in mind, Mondesi’s played a total of 125 games once since 2013. Whether he follows the path of Baez or Buxton could determine his overall worth, plan accordingly. As game shows go, will the price be right?

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Statistical Credits:

Fangraphs.com, Baseball-Reference.com, BaseballSavant.com, xSTATS.org, Steamerprojections.com, MiLB.com