League of Legends Championship Series
March 13th, 2022
(-120) Team Liquid v Cloud9 (-110)
(+150) FlyQuest v 100 Thieves (-200)
(+200) Team Solomid v Evil Geniuses (-275)
(+125) Immortals v Dignitas (-165)
(-165) Golden Guardians v Counter Logic Gaming (+125)
Saturday brought only one upset in the LCS as CLG beat the once third place FlyQuest in convincing fashion. Outside the top two teams (C9 and TL) there is little clarity on which teams are actually better than others. Teams like 100 Thieves are a great example of this. They have 7 wins this split but they have lost terrible games to bottom-tier teams and have had some wins that looked really lackluster. We are going to break this slate down by looking at trends and where these teams stack up against each other in individual player skill. Let’s dive in!
Fantasy Value Breakdown
Game #1: Team Liquid v Cloud9
Game Breakdown: This could be the most exciting League of Legends game that the west has seen in recent memory. Both teams had made massive changes in roster and coaching staffs. Both teams are sitting at 10-2 and sitting at the top of the LCS but this cannot be the case after today. TL won their first matchup pretty convincingly by exploiting an interesting draft by Cloud9 and forcing Cloud9 play the game the way TL wanted to play it. Cloud9 will look to muddy the game up in the early portions of the match. They want to get Summit (C9 top laner) ahead over Bwipo and put Summit in a position to carry until Berserker can take over the damage duty for Cloud9. The problem with this approach? Hans sama and CoreJJ are not only the best bottom lane duo TL has ever had, but I would argue that the LCS has ever had. Winsome (C9’s support) is probably their biggest liability and he won’t have the same impact on the game as CoreJJ has. This will be decided through clean mid-game fights by TL to put distance between them and Cloud9.
Favorite Picks: Hans sama (TL: $10,800/$7,200), Bjergsen (TL: $10,500/$7,000), CoreJJ (TL: $5,600)
Value Picks: Berserker (C9: $10,500/), Summit (C9: $5,600)
Cann’s Match Pick: Team Liquid
Game #2: FlyQuest v 100 Thieves
Game Breakdown: I really don’t like either of these teams. While this game should be exciting based on their shared 7-5 record and the fact that they are tied for third, the quality of play out of both of these teams is hard to enjoy. 100 Thieves will win in the early game, most likely through the explosive play of FBI and huhi, and then throw it all away in terrible mid-game decisions. Most of these mental blunders stem from the horrible performances out of their mid laner, Abbedagge. Last year he was explosive and would gap most opponents he faced, This year? He seems to struggle to execute on simple fundamentals like in-lane trading and wave management. With a less explosive team, FlyQuest’s toucouille has 3 more kills, 6 more assists, and 14 fewer deaths than Abbedagge. That mid-lane will be one to watch for in this matchup. This has to be the most likely upset on the slate but I cannot have faith in either of these teams.
Favorite Picks: FBI (100: $11,700/$7,800), Ssumday (100: $6,800) 100 Thieves ($5,400)
Value Picks: Johnsun (FLY: $9,000/$6,600), toucouille (FLY: $6,400), aphromoo (FLY: $4,600)
Cann’s Match Pick: 100 Thieves
Game #3: Team Solomid v Evil Geniuses
Game Breakdown: Evil Geniuses have really gone through the roller coaster ride of having young carries. They have some games where they win in the first 15 minutes through raw skill and aggression but they also have games that should be unlosable and somehow they are the ones seeing “Defeat” on their end-of-game screens. They cannot lose this game if they want to be taken seriously in the LCS. Their opponent, Team Solomid, is one of the worst teams the LCS has ever seen. The frequency of losses that come after them acquiring large leads or misplaying a simple late-game team fight is staggering. Team Solomid’s best chance for this match is to not invest into the bottom lane and Tactical as they have been. He throws away leads by having terrible positioning in fights. I think they need to focus on having their jungler, Spica, get their new mid laner ahead. Takeover has an 8.7 KDA and nearly a 3 kill per game average in his 3 games played. His ability to play the lane without too many resources is refreshing for this team, who has played the majority of the split trying to crawl into the late game by pouring attention into Tactical. We have seen that EG’s mid laner, jojopyun, can struggle when he has his mid lane pick countered. If I am TSM I am trying to put as much pressure on this young player and making Danny carry the game.
Favorite Picks: Danny (EG: $12,000/$8,000), Vulcan ($6,000), Evil Geniuses ($5,600)
Value Picks: Spica (TSM: $5,600), Takeover (TSM: $6,000)
Cann’s Match Pick: Evil Geniuses
Game #4: Immortals v Dignitas
Game Breakdown: Immortals is the alter-ego to 100 Thieves. Where 100 Thieves has a long list of ugly wins where they are outperformed by their opponents, Immortals have the opposite problem. I cannot count how many times I have watched Immortals this year and I see them snowballing an advantage somewhere on the map. They push the opposing team to the limit and then fumble in critical moments. PowerOfEvil is one of the best performing players in his role. He has the fifth-most kills among mid laners (34) and hasn’t had too many games where he gets bullied out of lane. Dignitas has drastically different games from one matchup to the next. While DIG picked up the win on Saturday over TSM, it is important to review that game and realize how much that game had been lost until TSM decided to give the game back to DIG. I do give a really big nod to the DIG bottom lane over Immortals with Neo breaking into the top 10 kill leaders through 12 games at 41 kills and 19 deaths. He is safe and not flashy which means he will perform in late-game team fights but do not rely on him to create his own opportunities.
Favorite Picks: Neo (DIG: $11,100/$7,400), FakeGod (DIG: $6,000), Blue (DIG: $7,400)
Value Picks: PowerOfEvil (IMT: $9,900/$6,600), Xerxe (IMT: $6,200), Immortals ($4,400)
Cann’s Match Pick: Immortals
Game #5: Golden Guardians v Counter Logic Gaming
Game Breakdown: The simplicity of this matchup makes me scratch my head on how CLG has picked up 4 wins this split. You cannot let the CLG ADC, Luger, get his hands on a hard carry champion. Get him off of Zeri, Jinx, and probably Aphelios. If you can put him onto a more utility ADC, CLG loses almost all options for late-game damage. I also really am expecting GG’s top laner, Licorice, to play at a higher level than he has been. The once chosen one from Cloud9 and the hope for North American domestic talent, Licorice has 23 kills and 38 deaths in his 12 games played this split. He has the worst KDA among top laners (1.9) and is struggling with certain matchups that he has never struggled with again. I know that his jungler, PrideStalker, puts far more attention into the bottom and middle lanes. My issue is that it sometimes feels like Licorice is just being outsmarted, and that isn’t a description I would have used for him previously.
Favorite Picks: Lost (GG: $7,600), AblazeOlive (GG: $7,200), Pridestalkr (GG: $7,000)
Value Picks: Luger (CLG: $6,400), Poome (CLG: $5,000)
Cann’s Match Pick: Golden Guardians
Cann’s Example Lineup
DraftKings Classic
$50,000 Salary Cap
Captain (x1.5): Bjergsen (TL: $10,500)
Alternate: toucouille (FLY: $9,600)
Top: Impact (EG: $6,600)
Jungle: Xerxe (IMT: $6,200)
Alternate: Pridestalkr (GG: $7,000)
Mid: Ablazeolive (GG: $7,200)
ADC: Hans sama (TL: $7,200)
Alternate: Johnsun (FLY: $6,600)
Support: CoreJJ (TL: $5,600)
Team: Evil Geniuses ($5,600)
Alternate: Golden Guardians($5,200)
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