(-197) FlyQuest v Counter Logic Gaming (+148)
(+169) Golden Guardians v 100 Thieves (-235)
(-220) Team Liquid v Evil Geniuses (+162)
(+290) Immortals v Cloud9 (-435)
(+137) Team Solomid v Dignitas (-185)
Three weeks remain in the Spring Split for the LCS. Each team only has 7 more games to push themselves into a playoff position come April. No team has mathematically been eliminated as of yet but teams like Counter Logic Gaming and Team Solomid find themselves quickly running out of times and opportunities to turn things around this split. We have the same two powerhouses at the top of the table in Cloud9 and Team Liquid. These two teams will square off on Sunday in the game of the week. Who do we like? Who do we avoid? Let’s dive in and find out!
Game #1: FlyQuest v Counter Logic Gaming
Game Breakdown: While we see plenty of parody from week to week in the LCS, I don’t personally believe this match is as close as the line implies. I think FlyQuest will end up slipping at least one more spot in the rankings by the end of the split, but they won’t lose that ground here. The only thing FLY needs to prioritize is not allowing CLG’s ADC (Luger) to get onto a hyper carry like Jinx or Zeri. When CLG have won games, it has come through Luger getting onto a champion who can 1v9 and personally take over the game. FLY will most likely look to play through their bottom lane as they have through their first 11 games. Johnsun is in the top three in the LCS in the kill metric with 45 kills and his resting just above a 5 KDA. Look to get your team picks and the bottom lane from this matchup but I would avoid both top laners. In the case of both Kumo (FLY) and Jenkins (CLG), we see both dying in really inopportune times and have both been reasons their team has lost games.
Favorite Picks: Johnsun (FLY: $11,400/$7,600), josedeodo (FLY: $6,600), toucouille (FLY: $7,200), Aphromoo (FLY: $5,400)
Value Picks: Luger (CLG: $6,400), Poome (CLG: $5,200)
Cann’s Match Pick: FlyQuest
Game #2: Golden Guardians v 100 Thieves
Game Breakdown: In the first 3 weeks, no one would have ever dreamed of picking Golden Guardians. Looking at the current state of both teams, specifically 100 Thieves, you could make the case that Golden Guardians are trending in a better direction. While GG lost to the bottom of the table team in TSM, I think their overall quality of play has been much better. 100 Thieves have gone 2-3 in their last 5 games played and they are sitting only one game ahead of Golden Guardians in the LCS standings. Teams have figured out that limiting the impact FBI can have in the early game puts 100 Thieves at serious risk of not having a late game win condition.This is super evident when we look at the kill leaders for 100 Thieves. FBI was the main carry in 2021 and outpaced all of his teammates in kills. Through 11 games Ssumday, 100 Thieves top laner, is leading the team in kills (41) and FBI is second with 38 kills. If GG’s Lost (44 kills) can safely navigate the isolated 2v2 with 100 Thieves and capitalize on opportunities that Pridestalker makes when he comes to gank, we could easily see an upset here.
Favorite Picks: FBI (100: $8,000), Closer (100: $7,000), 100 Thieves ($5,600), Ssumday (100: $6,600)
Value Picks: Golden Guardians ($4,200), AblazeOlive (GG: $6,000), Lost (GG: $6,200)
Cann’s Match Pick: Golden Guardians
Game #3: Team Liquid v Evil Geniuses
Game Breakdown: This matchup will be an interesting one. When you look at the names on paper, it should really be a close matchup with the biggest gap being in the middle lane. Bjergsen is a seasoned veteran and he is facing the new young talent in jojopyun. Both teams have explosive bottom lanes and both have top laners that can take over a game. Inspired tends to be more aggressive and looks to push advantages for EG while TL’s jungler, Santorin, is a steady hand that knows when to avoid fights to ensure to that TL are able to make plays for objectives. The difference between these two teams is how they execute. Team Liquid has veterans who understand how to play out games and know what is most critical at each phase of the game. Team Liquid have the second highest early game rating (62.1) and the highest mid to late game rating (19.7). They have the highest GPR (the measurement used to compare how much of the gold they have in a game) by a wide margin (1.12 versus 0.69 in second place). This game will appear close at different points in the game but I have no doubt TL will hit some late game team fights and pull out the win.
Favorite Picks: Hans sama (TL: $10,800/$7,200), Bjergsen (TL: $11,00/7,400), Bwipo (TL: $6,400), Team Liquid ($5,400)
Value Picks: Danny (EG: $10,200/$6,800), Impact (EG: $5,800), Inspired (EG: $6,200)
Cann’s Match Pick: Team Liquid
Game #4: Immortals v Cloud9
Game Breakdown: This is another match I believe will be closer than the Bovada line predicts. Immortals had Team Liquid on their last leg and a few auto attacks away from killing their nexus to losing the match off of the TL counterpunch last week. In their 7 losses, they have been competitive and at times in position to win, in at least 4 of them. Cloud9 is heavily relying on the power of their imported talent. They have found the early leads coming from their superstar top laner Summit (38 kills) and the late game is driven by the technically gifted Berserker. Immortals will lean on the control that PowerOfEvil brings to the game and hope that Xerxe (61 assists in 11 games) can influence the sidelines enough to keep it close. Cloud9 will be their own biggest adversary in this match and it will be more about if they can effectively close out a game.
Favorite Picks: Berserker (C9: $11,700/$7,800), Summit (C9: $6,800), Cloud9 ($5,800), Fudge (C9: $7,800)
Value Picks: Revenge (IMT: $5,000), PowerOfEvil (IMT: $5,800)
Cann’s Match Pick: Cloud9
Game #5: Team Solomid v Dignitas
Game Breakdown: Of all five games on the slate, this one will be the hardest one to watch. Team Dignitas is currently in 5th place in the LCS, but have looked inconsistent at best. Team Solomid are coming off of a win over Golden Guardians last week but there are still questions swirling around the organization. TSM have swapped their support (Shenyi) out and back with marginal impact on team performance. They lack a real carry outside of their ADC Tactical (3+ kills per game average) and the reigning league MVP (Spica) has looked nonexistent. TSM will find some opportunities to play with agency and then lose it because of poor execution. Dignitas has shown flashes of potential, especially with their imported mid laner, Blue. Blue has a 4+ KDA and has a 70% team kill participation rate. DIG cannot build a team composition around him with the expectation that he can carry a game but he has the ability to play a wide range of champions to fit different play patterns. He is the safest pick in the match but I would argue probably has one of the lower ceilings. A player to watch out for has to be River (jungler). The combination of TSM’s Spica struggling and the raw mechanical skill River brings to the table, this could be a high production game for the Korean jungler.
Favorite Picks: Blue (DIG: $10,500/), Neo (DIG: $7,000), River (DIG: $6,400)
Value Picks: Huni (TSM: $5,600), Tactical (TSM: $6,600), Shenyi (TSM: $5,000)
Cann’s Match Pick: Dignitas
DraftKings Example Lineup
Captain (x1.5): Hans sama (TL: $10,800)
Alternate: Johnsun (FLY: $11,400)
Top: Summit (C9: $6,800)
Jungle: Pridestalker (GG: $5,800)
Mid: Bjergsen (TL: $7,800)
Alternate: AblazeOlive (GG: $6,000)
ADC: Lost (GG: $6,200)
Support: CoreJJ (TL: $5,800)
Team: Team Liquid ($5,400)
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