League of Legends Pro League

League of Legends Champions Korea

March 19th, 2022 

(+135) Hanwha Life Esports v Nongshim RedForce (-175)

Damwon Gaming KIA v Fredit BRION

(+350) Ultra Prime v Royal Never Give Up (-550)

(+140) Rare Atom v Edward Gaming (-185)

(-325) Victory Five v FunPlus Phoenix (+225)

 

No real shocks in results from Friday, so our playoff view becomes clearer and clearer. Saturday brings us multiple matches that have heavy implications on how we see the post-season landscape. Rare Atom and FPX both are fighting to hold onto playoff spots but they face serious competition in EDG and V5 for Saturday morning. The LCK playoff standings are all but decided, though we still see chances for different teams to make higher seedings. DWG specifically is neck and neck with the current fourth-seeded team, DRX. While DRX has the undefeated T1 as their last game for the split, we saw that T1 is prone to mistakes on Friday. This means all the pressure will be on DWG to close out their Spring Split with a series win. With so many implications on the next few months of play, every team is looking to play their best now. Let’s dive in!

 

Fantasy Value Breakdown

Series #1: Hanwha Life Esports v Nongshim RedForce

Game Breakdown: In the matchup between HLE and NS, I would have called RedForce an absolute slam dunk at the beginning of 2022. They have some of the biggest names in League of Legends on their roster. Bdd, Ghost, BeryL, and Canna. They have quality in all roles but fail to put it together. They gain early leads in some lanes but find other lanes falling desperately behind. They can pick up early objectives but then lose multiple critical late game teamfights. Luckily for them, they are playing against an even weaker macro team in HLE. Hanwha has the same issues with putting together a complete game but the major difference between the two teams is that Hanwha lacks the raw individual talent. Their ADC, SamD (56.5 FPPG), is the primary damage dealer for the team but we have seen HLE mix in other players throughout the split. You have the worst performing team going against a team with players that have shown us a very high possible ceiling. Canna is a NS player you need to keep an eye out for. He ranks third among LCK top laners in the kill category (110) and has the highest gold difference average differential at 10 minutes for players with more than 10 games (+183). 

Favorite Picks: Canna (NS: $6,600), Bdd (NS: $7,000), Dread (NS: $6,400)

Value Picks: SamD (HLE: $6,800)

Cann’s Match Pick: Nongshim RedForce (2-1) 

 

Series #2: Damwon Gaming KIA v Fredit BRION

Game Breakdown: Even with the early season step back from DWG, we are seeing a pretty complete team moving into the LCK playoffs. The organization are starting to see the fruits of bring in the bottom lane of deokdam and Kellin in. The DWG ADC, deokdam, is now one of two players averaging over +100 gold advantage at 10 min (+233) and he has the second most kills among LCK ADCs (175). Avoiding the DWG top laner and investing more into the jungle/ADC/support trio is the safest best here for solid point pick ups. I would probably avoid anyone from Fredit BRION. They are coming off a COVID outbreak last week and their starters will be looking to transition back into their roles. 

Favorite Picks: Canyon (DWG: $7,200), deokdam (DWG: $11,400/$7,600), Kellin (DWG: $5,800), Damwon Gaming ($5,800)

Value Picks:

Cann’s Match Pick: Damwon Gaming KIA (2-0)  
 

Series #3: Ultra Prime v Royal Never Give Up

Game Breakdown: This series is going to be crucial for Royal Never Give up. They have two series remaining and they hold a one-loss lead on JDG for 4th place. Going 2-0 against UP may be enough to secure that 4th place placement and secure them a buy into the double knockout round. They have to get through the UP carries of Elk (ADC) and Cryin (mid) who have driven this team as far as they have. The real risk for RNG is that they are not able to pressure either of these lanes early enough and we can see Elk able to carry this team in the late game. Elk has the most kills among ADCs (202) and is out-producing his lane opponent (GALA) in his early game rating. You won’t see RNG play through this lane though. I fully expect to see Wei (jungler) play through Bin (top) and Xiaohu (mid) instead. The comparison between the two teams is actually hard when trying to note a clear advantage for RNG. Both Elk and Cryin have had decent seasons for kills and assists but the nod goes to the RNG carries because of their safety. A direct comparison from role to role shows that RNG dies at a much lower frequency and we see that in their average +2 difference in KDA ratios over the UP carries. 

Favorite Picks: Gala (RNG: $8,000), Xiaohu (RNG: $11,700/$7,800), Wei (RNG: $7,400), Royal Never Give Up ($5,600)

Value Picks: Elk (UP: $10,500/$7,000), Cryin (UP: $6,600), ShiauC (UP: $4,800)

Cann’s Match Pick: Royal Never Give Up (2-0)  

 

Series #4: Rare Atom v Edward Gaming

Game Breakdown: Rare Atom has to be the most likely upset on the slate. They have superstar players like iBoy and Cube who can keep up with the EDG players and I could make the argument that they may have an advantage. The EDG ADC (Viper) has decent total stats (161 kills, 190+ assists) but has not been the same win condition for the team as he had in the past. In the past few series (the last of which was a crushing 0-2 loss to LNG Esports) Edward Gaming has floundered in the early game and fallen too far behind to be significant. This will be their downfall here if Cube can outplay Flandre in the top lane. Cube has 41 more kills and 31 more assists than EDG’s Flandre. This series will be close all the way and I can’t shake my fear that EDG is in an uncontrollable spiral.    

Favorite Picks: Viper (EDG: $11,100/$), Scout (EDG: $), Meiko (EDG: $5,400

Value Picks: Strive (RA: $),Cube (RA: $), Rare Atom ($)

Cann’s Match Pick: Rare Atom (2-1)  

 

Series #5: Victory Five v FunPlus Phoenix

Game Breakdown: I was reviewing a few things for this matchup and to be with, I started thinking FPX had a chance to win here. They are on the same win streak as V5 (3) and have worked really hard to grind to the 10th place seeding they are currently sitting in. I think looked deeper into the last three series they won, and the luster has been lost a bit. They beat IG, Team WE, and Bilibili Gaming. Only one of those teams is a playoff team (BLG) and they only had 1 series end a 2-0 sweep. V5 is just a better team, both on paper and in actual play. Only one position would I give any sort of edge to FPX, and that is in the top lane where xiaolaohu (FPX) is averaging 58.4 FPPG to Rich’s 57.3 FPPG. In every other position, I don’t see this being anywhere near close. Even FPX’s new mid laner (Care) has begun to cool off in his performances and Rookie remains the best mid laner in the world. In Saturday’s match, Rookie will crest 150 kills and 270 assists in a single split which is astonishing. He has a 72% team klill participation and he has done all of this with no extra resources or attention being put into his lane. Karsa or XLB (V5 junglers) is another must-grab player if you are leaning into V5 for Saturday and one that should come at a decent price for the output he has.    

Favorite Picks: Photic (V2: $11,700/$7,800), Rookie (V5: $11,400/$7,600), Ppgod (V5: $5,600)

Value Picks: Care (FPX: $6,000), xiaolaohu (FPX: $5,800)

Cann’s Match Pick: Victory Five (2-0)  
 

Cann’s Example Lineup

DraftKings Classic 

$50,000 Salary Cap

Captain (x1.5): Rookie (V5: $11,400)

Alternate: Ghost (NS: $10,800)

Top: Cube (RA: $5,400)

Jungle: Karsa (V5: 46,800)

Alternate: Clid (FPX: $6,000)

Mid: Xiaohu (RNG: $7,800)

ADC: Elk ($7,000)

Support: Ppgod (V5: $5,600)

Team: DWG Kia ($5,800)

Alternate: Rare Atom ($4,400)