Players (World rank: #4) vs. BIG (World rank: #17) - 7:30 A.M. ET

Moneyline Odds: Players (-320) | BIG (+250)

Map Handicap: Players -1.5 (+105) | BIG +1.5 (-125)

Map Total: Over 2.5 (+130) | Under 2.5 (-160)

  • This is a best-of-three series on LAN for the group stage of ESL Pro League Season 15 - Group C
  • Players - Rating at event: sh1ro 1.42 | HObbit 1.30 | interz 1.14 | Ax1Le 1.11 | nafany 0.97
  • Players - Rating past three months: sh1ro 1.35 | Ax1Le 1.19 | HObbit  1.14 | interz 1.04 | nafany 0.94
  • BIG - Rating at event: tabseN 1.34 | syrsoN 1.15 | faveN 1.07 | Krimbo 1.04 | tiziaN 0.73
  • BIG - Rating past three months: syrsoN 1.21 | Krimbo 1.15 | tabseN  1.12 | faveN 1.05 | tiziaN 0.95

H2H Data:

  • These rosters last faced each other online in January 2022 at the Funspark ULTI Finals when Gambit won 2-0 (16-5 Ancient / 16-10 Dust2). HObbit led the server in kills (37) while sh1ro led in Rating (1.39) across two maps played. 

Map Projections:

BIG removes Inferno

Players remove Nuke

BIG picks Dust2

Players pick Vertigo

BIG removes Ancient

Players remove Overpass

Mirage is left over

Prediction/Narrative: Players win 2-0.

It is definitely surprising to see Players at 1-1 in the group stage after their loss to Movistar Riders, but they are still the second highest-rated team at the event with a 1.19 Team Rating across five maps played despite their stumble on Thursday. Sh1ro & HObbit both look to be in great form as sh1ro is currently the second highest-rated player at the event (1.42 Rating) and HObbit is the fifth highest-rated (1.30 Rating). BIG have shown a lot of promise with Krimbo in the lineup as they have a 7-2 W/L record across nine maps played, but they have struggled against Players/Gambit in the past. Plus, it can be difficult to work a new player into your roster against Players since their methodical style of play tends to punish any mistakes that BIG might make during that time. This is also one of the spots where BIG get screwed from their Dust2 auto-lock map pick. Sure, Dust2 is BIG’s favorite map, but it has also been Players’ best map in 2022 with a 4-1 W/L record. As for Players, they have a few options for their map pick with Vertigo & Ancient looking like the strongest options, and I would consider them a heavy favorite on either map. I think that Players will find their footing on Friday with a convincing win here since they have always had an edge against BIG in the past, which should give them the boost of confidence that they need in this studio-LAN environment. With that being said, there could be some value on Draftkings on the German side with tabseN and even syrsoN looking like decent options at their pricing. I’m not expecting much from BIG here, but it could maybe be worth punting with them in a GPP since their pricing is so cheap. I'd mostly rather find value elsewhere on the slate though.

  • On Dust2, sh1ro leads Players with a 1.42 Rating and 1.78 K/D ratio across five maps played in 2022. 
  • On Vertigo, sh1ro leads Players with a 1.38 Rating and 1.79 K/D ratio across four maps played in 2022.
  • On Mirage, sh1ro leads Players with a 1.35 Rating and 1.92 K/D ratio across four maps played in 2022.

Favorite Draftkings Plays (in order of priority):

sh1ro ($10,200) | Ax1Le ($9,400) | HObbit ($8,200) | nafany ($6,200) | tabseN ($5,800) | syrsoN ($6,800) | interz ($7,400) | Krimbo ($6,400)

 

Liquid (World rank: #31) vs. Movistar Riders (World rank: #23) - 11:00 A.M. ET

Moneyline Odds: Liquid (-240) | Movistar Riders (+190)

Map Handicap: Liquid -1.5 (+135) | Movistar Riders +1.5 (-160)

Map Total: Over 2.5 (+120) | Under 2.5 (-145)

  • This is a best-of-three series on LAN for the group stage of ESL Pro League Season 15 - Group C
  • Liquid - Rating at event: oSee 1.54 | EliGE 1.40 | NAF 1.21 | nitr0 1.10 | shox 1.02
  • Liquid - Rating past three months: EliGE 1.21 | NAF 1.16 | oSee  1.13 | nitr0 0.98 | shox 0.97
  • Movistar Riders - Rating at event: mopoz 1.20 | dav1g 1.17 | alex 1.15 | SunPayus 1.02 | DeathZz 0.90
  • Movistar Riders - Rating past three months: SunPayus 1.12 | alex 1.07 | mopoz 1.00 | dav1g 0.95 | DeathZz 0.94

H2H Data:

  • These rosters have never faced each other. 

Map Projections:

Movistar Riders removes Dust2

Liquid removes Nuke

Movistar Riders picks Inferno

Liquid picks Mirage

Movistar Riders removes Overpass

Liquid removes Vertigo

Ancient is left over

Prediction/Narrative: Liquid wins 2-1.

Liquid have finally come into form with their new lineup, and they look like one of the best teams in the group at the moment, leading the event with a Team Rating of 1.26 across four maps played. OSee leads all players at the event with a 1.54 Rating, and his teammates are not behind with EliGE in third and NAF in eighth, all while nitr0 and shox are finding massive impact. With that being said, Movistar Riders are playing well too, with both teams sharing the lead in Group C at 2-0. Movistar Riders were huge underdogs against Players, but they pulled the upset on Thursday with strong performances on Inferno & Ancient. We still don’t fully know what to make of Liquid’s map pool since they haven’t played Overpass yet (as well as Nuke, their permaban), and they have struggled on Inferno so far with a 1-3 W/L record, so I do think Movistar Riders can take at least a map here. However, if the individuals on Liquid can keep up their good form, then I think Liquid should be able to close this series out in three maps. Liquid picked up their first win on Ancient with this lineup against GODSENT in a convincing 16-4 fashion, though that map could get interesting if it is in fact the decider since Movistar Riders just took down Players on that map.  Both teams are hot, but I’ll ride with the more talented Liquid roster in a fairly close series.

  • On Inferno, NAF leads Liquid with a 1.22 Rating, while oSee leads with a 1.14 K/D ratio across four maps played in 2022.
  • On Mirage, NAF leads Liquid with a 1.14 Rating and 1.14 K/D ratio across six maps played in 2022.
  • On Ancient, EliGE leads Liquid with a 1.32 Rating and 1.31 K/D ratio across three maps played in 2022.

Favorite Draftkings Plays (in order of priority):

NAF ($8,800) | oSee ($7,800) | EliGE ($9,600) | shox ($6,800) | DeathZz ($4,200) | SunPayus ($7,600) | nitr0 ($6,000) | mopoz ($5,700) 

 

GODSENT (World rank: #28) vs. Party Astronauts (World rank: #40) - 2:30 P.M. ET

Moneyline Odds: GODSENT (-270) | Party Astronauts (+215)

Map Handicap: GODSENT -1.5 (+115) | Party Astronauts +1.5 (-145)

Map Total: Over 2.5 (+125) | Under 2.5 (-155)

  • This is a best-of-three series on LAN for the group stage of ESL Pro League Season 15 - Group C
  • GODSENT - Rating at event: dumau 0.95 | latto 0.88 | b4rtiN 0.78 | HEN1 0.71 | TACO 0.63
  • GODSENT - Rating past three months: dumau 1.08 | latto 1.00 | HEN1  0.91 | b4rtiN 0.88 | TACO 0.85
  • Party Astronauts - Rating at event: Jonji 0.93 | djay 0.86 | ben1337  0.70 | PwnAlone 0.67 | ptr 0.61
  • Party Astronauts - Rating past three months: PwnAlone 1.23 | Jonji  1.17 | djay 1.15 | ben1337 1.03 | ptr 0.94

H2H Data:

  • These rosters have never faced each other. GODSENT swept 2-0 when these teams last met in June 2021 (16-3 Dust2 / 16-5 Overpass), but both rosters have changed since. 

Map Projections:

Party Astronauts removes Vertigo

GODSENT removes Inferno

Party Astronauts picks Nuke

GODSENT picks Ancient

Party Astronauts removes Dust2 

GODSENT removes Overpass

Mirage is left over

Prediction/Narrative: Party Astronauts win 2-1.

It might seem crazy to bet on Crazy Astronauts since they have gotten smoked two days in a row now, but this match-up against GODSENT looks a lot better for them. GODSENT does not compare in talent to Players or BIG for that matter, plus they are from the same region as Party Astronauts, which should help the underdog stylistically. I have high hopes for the Brazilian roster now that they have HEN1 as their primary AWPer, but this lineup hasn’t looked all that good on the server yet, and the loss of felps has seemed significant. Ancient has been GODSENT’s go-to map, but they just got destroyed by Liquid in a 4-16 loss where they didn’t win a single CT round after managing a somewhat respectable 4-11 half on T side. Thus, it is difficult to be overly confident in GODSENT right now, which is why I am looking to fade them as a heavy favorite. Party Astronauts have some solid maps that GODSENT have been weak on such as Inferno, Nuke, Overpass, and even Dust2, so the map pool could be ripe for an upset. GODSENT dominated Party Astronauts at a small event in June 2021 when they last met with different rosters, but I expect to see more fight from Party Astronauts in this studio-LAN environment based on the doggedness they’ve shown over the past two days. I do think that we will see a better version of GODSENT since they have had to face the two hottest teams in the group, Liquid and Movistar Riders, but ultimately, I think that Party Astronauts are a live underdog and their Draftkings pricing looks juicy. 

  • On Nuke, PwnAlone leads Party Astronauts with a 1.30 Rating and 1.44 K/D ratio across 11 maps played in 2022.
  • On Ancient, Jonji leads Party Astronauts with a 1.30 Rating and 1.11 K/D ratio across one map played in 2022.
  • On Mirage, PwnAlone leads Party Astronauts with a 1.19 Rating and 1.22 K/D ratio across nine maps played in 2022.

Favorite Draftkings Plays (in order of priority):

PwnAlone ($7,000) | ptr ($4,400) | Jonji ($6,200) | djay ($5,600) | dumau ($10,000) | HEN1 ($8,000) |  ben1337 ($4,800) | TACO ($6,000)

 

*Top Stacks: Players, Liquid, Party Astronauts

*Favorite captain options: sh1ro, NAF, oSee, Ax1Le, HObbit, EliGE, dumau

*Favorite value plays: PwnAlone, nafany, shox, ptr, Jonji, djay, tabseN, DeathZz