League of Legends European Championship

Summer Split / July 22nd, 2022

This may be the closest that the LEC has ever been entering week 5 of competition and there is no reason to think that will change. Multiple matchups across the slate are between teams that are either immediately next to each other or chasing one another in the standings. The LEC has one more month of play and teams like G2 Esports and Astralis were once the top of the league now sit outside the playoff cut. Rogue, a team who many doubted after a rough super week, are the sole kings of the LEC at 7-2. With so much parody in the results for the LEC, we need to identify the most consistent players and find historical angles to find wins. Let’s dive in!

 

 

 

League of Legends LEC Matchups

  • (+125) BDS Esport v SK Gaming (-162)
  • (-110) Misfits v Excel Esports (-117)
  • (-350) G2 Esports v Astralis (+255) 
  • (+120) Vitality v MAD Lions (-155)
  • (-155) Rogue v Fnatic (+120)

 

League of Legends DFS Fantasy Breakdown

Game #1: BDS Esport v SK Gaming

Game Breakdown: This may be the worst quality game on the slate in terms of quality League of Legends, there is no doubt in my mind this matchup will be slow moving for most of the match. These teams rank dead last and second to dead last in terms of team kills and they normally play extremely scared. You can look to a player like Sertus for SK (38% team kills share and 27 kills) or Agresivoo (28% team kill share percentage and 28 kills) to be the two more explosive players on the rift in this match. 

Favorite Picks: Sertuss (SK: $7,200), Jezu (SK: $7,400)

Value Picks: Agresivoo (BDS: $5,600), Cinkrof (BDS: $6,000), 

Cann’s Match Pick: BDS Esport  

 

Game #2: Misfits v Excel Esports

Game Breakdown: The odds are set very close in this game and the salaries are relatively similar as well. I find this to be odd because while the records are the same (5-4), Misfits are on a 5 game winning streak. I always get worried when flawed teams like Misfits get super streaky. When we look at their record they have beat MAD Lions who are ahead of them in the standings but everyone else (FNC, G2, SK, and BDS) has drastically underperformed their expectations coming into Summer. Vetheo is still the main carry of this Misfits team and I think if nukeduck (XL mid-laner) can contain him to the mid lane and not let him try to pick up kills in the top and bottom lanes, XL’s Patrik (38 kills and 39 assists) can carry XL in late game fights. 

Favorite Picks: Patrik (XL: $10,800/$7,200), Macaron (XL: $6,800), Excel Esports ($4,800)

Value Picks: Irrelevant (MSF: $5,400), Vetheo (MSF: $6,800)

Cann’s Match Pick: Excel Esports  

 

Game #3: G2 Esports v Astralis

Game Breakdown: A few weeks ago this would have been seen as a matchup of two of the best teams in the LEC but because of how close all of the LEC teams are in the standings, combined with recent struggles of these teams, this is a matchup between two teams near the bottom of the table. G2 seemingly have lost some of their identity and gotten themselves into some really strange draft situations the last few weeks. For Astralis, people have been really keying in on putting pressure on their ADC. Kobbe (36 kills and 76% team kill participation rate) is the core to this team’s success and teams have found ways to slow him down in the early to mid game. G2 will need to create pressure elsewhere with Caps in the mid lane and BrokenBlade in the top lane and for Xerxe to not babysit his ADC. This gives the G2 duo of Flakked and Targamas to play more aggressive in lane, thus keeping Kobbe as a non-factor for longer. 

Favorite Picks: Caps (G2: $12,000/$8,000), BrokenBlade (G2: $7,000), Targamas (G2: $6,200)  

Value Picks: Xerxe (AST: $5,400), Kobbe (AST: $6,200), Astralis ($3,600)

Cann’s Match Pick: Astralis  

 

Game #4: Vitality v MAD Lions

Game Breakdown: I fluctuate back and forth with this matchup a little bit. I have said all year, VIT is not a good team but instead a collection of good players. This means that any one of them can have standout games and win the game on an individual level. I actually think their recently added jungler, HAru, has the best chance to make a big impact and find lanes where MAD May be overstepping or over confident. For MAD, they are winning this game in the bottom lane. Unfortunately for VIT’s ADC (Carzzy) I think he has all but solidified some of the assumptions about his play level/tendencies and he has looked extremely vulnerable in earlier parts of the game. Unf0rgiven (42 kills and 41 assists) is the damage threat on this team. I suspect that VIT will try to get out of the laning phase as soon as possible because the more time Carzzy gets stuck in that lane, the worse it is for Carzzy. 

Favorite Picks: Unf0rgiven (MAD: $11,700/$7,800), Kaiser (MAD: $5,800) 

Value Picks: Haru (VIT: $5,600), Alphari (VIT: $5,800)

Cann’s Match Pick: MAD Lions  

 

Game #5: Rogue v Fnatic

Game Breakdown: Here is my sneaky upset pick of the slate. This FNC team is too good and has too good of a coaching staff to continue to struggle like they have. Keep your eyes our for the Malrang versus Razork showdown in the jungle. In games where either team has been successful, it has started with their jungler and how they could influence the map. Razork will need to make sure that Comp (45 kills, 50 assists) and Larssen (76% team kill participation rate) cannot make the impac t that they have in 7 of their 9 games this split.  

Favorite Picks: Comp (RGE: $11,400/$7,600), Malrang (RGE: $6,600) 

Value Picks: Wunder (FNC: $5,200), Humanoid (FNC: $6,400), Upset (FNC: $7,000)   

Cann’s Match Pick: Fnatic  
 

Cann’s League of Legends Example Lineup

DraftKings Classic / $50,000 Salary Cap
 

Captain (x1.5): Nisqy (MAD: $11,100)

  • Alternate: Upset (FNC: $10,500)

Top: Agresivoo (BDS: $5,600)

Jungle: Markoon (XL: $6,800)

  • Alternate: Razork (FNC: $6,200)

Mid: Humanoid (FNC: $6,400)

ADC: Unf0rgiven (MAD: $7,800)

Support: Kaiser (MAD: $5,800)

  • Alternate: Targamas (G2: $6,200)

Team: Excel Esports ($4,800)


 

 



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