League of Legends European Championships
July 16th, 2022
Friday gave us another classic slate for the LEC. There were two major upsets and every game was high octane as teams scrapped it out to secure themselves a playoff spot for the Summer Split. We have some more exciting matchups for Saturday and with most of the teams being 1 or 2 games apart from each other in the standings, these matches mean a lot. The good teams have to pick up wins against the “bad” teams and the “bad” teams need to keep the pressure on so they can make playoffs. Let’s find the best picks and most likely upsets on the day. Let’s dive in!
League of Legends LEC Matchups
- (+320) SK Gaming v Excel Esports (-500)
- (-275) MAD Lions v Astralis (+200)
- (-500) BDS Esports v Rogue (-900)
- (+175) Misfits v G2 Esports (-230)
- (+148) Team Vitality v Fnatic (-186)
League of Legends DFS Fantasy Breakdown
Game #1: SK Gaming v Excel Esports
Game Breakdown: SK Gaming continues to approach the game in the same way. The lanes they draft to win early, do. The lanes the draft to scale end up getting put so far behind they are irrelevant in the later stages of the game. Really their most consistent player (JNX) fills his role the best, playing weakside and for team fights, but that playstyle doesn’t pick up big points normally. After a game that slipped away from them on Friday, I fully expect XL to hit this game at full speed and with a lot of anger. Patrik was on the Kalista pick yesterday which had great agency in the early to mid game, but runs out of gas in the very late game. Unfortunately for him, the game hit the very late game and he could no longer carry. Look for XL to put him back onto a more scaling pick and they should be good to go.
Favorite Picks: Patrik (XL: $11,400/$7,600), Markoon (XL: $7,200), Mikyx (XL: $5,800)
Value Picks: Sertuss (XL: $6,000), JNX (XL: $5,000)
Cann’s Match Pick: Excel Esports
Game #2: MAD Lions v Astralis
Game Breakdown: I think I may be done doubting this Astralis team. The introduction of Xerxe has made a huge difference and we see AST making decisive decisions in the early game which allows them to get their main carry, Kobbe, moving at light speed in the mid game. Kobbe’s biggest strength is playing out later fights. He can navigate team fights well and I think has a good sense on how to continually output damage. MAD has looked much better after their own roster swaps this split but my concern is for how well will Elyoya be able to push Xerxe off his own plan. That is how AST has lost games but it isn’t really a focus by MAD. They try to get Nisqy (mid) small lane leads and get him moving into the side lanes but compared to the jungler making those moves it is too slow.
Favorite Picks: Armut (MAD: $6,800), Nisqy (MAD: $7,600)
Value Picks: Kobbe (AST: $10,200/$6,800), Xerxe (AST: $6,400), Astralis ($4,200)
Cann’s Match Pick: Astralis
Game #3: BDS Esports v Rogue
Game Breakdown: I am shocked that these price tags across the board were not higher for RGE. The players from RGE played a near perfect game on Friday against VIT and I don’t think they are as shaky of a team as the court of public opinion believes. I think Rogue suffers from the same perception that the Green Bay Packers do in the NFL. Their perceived postseason failures are somehow an indictment on how good of a team they are. Larssen is one of the best controlling mid laners this league has ever seen and Comp is a really consistent ADC. Add having a very technically skilled jungler in Malrang and I am not sure where BDS can find an angle to win this match.
Favorite Picks: Malrang (RGE: $7,000), Larssen (RGE: $7,800), Trymbi (RGE: $6,400)
Value Picks: Agresivoo (BDS: $4,800)
Cann’s Match Pick: Rogue
Game #4: Misfits v G2 Esports
Game Breakdown: I think the Misfits win on Friday was a fluke. I know that really devalues the performance they had but I am not overly impressed by one win from this team. We saw serious flaws in this team during the playoffs in Spring and we can still see those flaws in this split. Shlatan has opened up his champion pool a little bit but he is still very confined by what he can play well. Their ADC, Neon, is more of a result of the game state rather than having influence over the game. I think players like Flakked, Caps, and Targamas play with too much agency and that will hurt the supporting pieces of Vetheo.
Favorite Picks: Flakked (G2: $11,100/$7,400), BrokenBlade (G2: $6,400), Targamas (G2: $5,600)
Value Picks: Vetheo (MSF: $10,200/$6,800), Shlatan (MSF: $5,800)
Cann’s Match Pick: G2 Esports
Game #5: Team Vitality v Fnatic
Game Breakdown: There is something wrong with Fnatic this split. There really isn’t any other way to analyze it. They get good picks in draft], will get some leads in game, and then just lose it through a series of terrible decisions. They have some of the best players in the league but it feels like there isn’t a shared identity or a lack of clear calls in game. So why does this add up to a Vitality win? This is the classic spot for them to pick up an upset. This team is not a legitimate contender but they have the greatest Western player ever in Perkz. Perkz has a tendency to pick up late game wins by exploiting disjointed opposing teams. I want to see Perkz on something that has high impact and can play selfishly so he can flip late game team fights.
Favorite Picks: Upset (FNC: $10,800/$7,200), Wunder (FNC: $5,800)
Value Picks: Haru (VIT: $6,200), Labrov (VIT: $5,000)
Cann’s Match Pick: Team Vitality
Cann’s League of Legends Example Lineup
DraftKings Classic / $50,000 Salary Cap
Captain (x1.5): Kobbe (AST: $10,200)
- Alternate: Comp (RGE: $11,700)
Top: BrokenBlade (G2: $6,400)
Jungle: Malrang (RGE: $7,000)
Mid: Dajor (AST: $6,400)
- Alternate: Caps (G2: $7,400)
ADC: Patrik (XL: $7,600)
- Alternate: Upset (FNC: $7,200)
Support: Mikyx (XL: $5,800)
Team: Rogue ($5,800)
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