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Astralis (World rank: #11) vs. MOUZ (World rank: #14) – 9:30 A.M. ET
Moneyline Odds: Astralis (-130) | MOUZ (+105)
Map Handicap: Astralis -1.5 (+220) | MOUZ +1.5 (-275)
This is a best-of-three series on LAN for the quarter-finals of IEM Cologne 2022.
Astralis - Rating at event: blameF 1.32 | k0nfig 1.17 | Xyp9x 1.11 | gla1ve 1.00 | Farlig 0.78
Astralis - Rating past three months: blameF 1.29 | k0nfig 1.07 | Farlig 1.00 | Xyp9x 0.99 | gla1ve 0.94
MOUZ - Rating at event: frozen 1.15 | Bymas 1.10 | torzsi 1.08 | JDC 0.98 | dexter 0.93
MOUZ - Rating past three months: frozen 1.14 | torzsi 1.14 | Bymas 1.03 | JDC 0.97 | dexter 0.97
H2H Data:
These rosters have never faced each other. The teams last met in December at IEM Winter 2021, though both lineups have changed since. Astralis swept 2-0 (16-6 Ancient / 16-10 Nuke) and blameF led the server with 38 kills and a 1.39 Rating.
Map Projections:
MOUZ removes Dust2
Astralis removes Vertigo
MOUZ picks Inferno
Astralis picks Nuke
MOUZ removes Overpass
Astralis removes Mirage
Ancient is left over
Prediction/Narrative: Astralis wins 2-1.
Astralis are currently the fourth highest-rated team at IEM Cologne 2022 with a 1.08 Team Rating and blameF sits as the second highest-rated player at the event with a 1.32 Rating across six maps played. BlameF was the MVP of Pinnacle Cup Championship 2022 just last month, and his form has been incredible in 2022 with a 1.24 Rating across 114 maps played. More importantly for Astralis, k0nfig is finally playing well alongside blameF as the eighth highest-rated player at IEM Cologne with a 1.17 Rating. With both star riflers fragging, Astralis may finally be able to reach new heights. As for MOUZ, they are a young team, and I think they may struggle with the pressure of playing on stage in front of the crowd at this LAN event.
Astralis have been untouchable on Nuke having won six in a row on that map, and I expect them to pick it here despite it being the most played map for MOUZ in the past three months. Ancient has been the best map for MOUZ during that time, but Astralis got off to a 13-2 start on CT when MOUZ picked that map into the Danes last time. Astralis have a 58.8% CT round win percentage in the past three months on Ancient and I doubt MOUZ will want to give them the luxury of starting CT Ancient. Inferno makes the most sense for MOUZ to pick here given that Astralis will likely ban Vertigo, but we have seen mixed results from MOUZ on Inferno having lost seven of their last 10 on that map. Overall, the map pool is fairly even here, but I do give Astralis the edge because of Nuke. Astralis should be the better team if k0nfig continues to play well, and MOUZ could struggle with a young team playing in front of a live audience. I'll take Astralis to win in this spot.
- Astralis opening duel attempt leaders at event: k0nfig 28.1% | gla1ve 24.4% | blameF 20.6%
- On Inferno, blameF leads Astralis with a 1.21 Rating and 1.29 K/D ratio across five maps played in the past three months.
- On Nuke, blameF leads Astralis with a 1.31 Rating and 1.44 K/D ratio across 12 maps played in the past three months.
Favorite Draftkings Plays (In order of priority):
blameF ($8,600) | k0nfig ($7,600) | gla1ve ($4,800) | Farlig ($6,600) | Xyp9x ($5,800) | frozen ($8,000)
Liquid (World rank: #17) vs. Movistar Riders (World rank: #13) – 1:00 P.M. ET
Moneyline Odds: Liquid (-115) | Movistar Riders (-110)
Map Handicap: Liquid -1.5 (+245) | Movistar Riders +1.5 (-310)
This is a best-of-three series on LAN for the quarter-finals of IEM Cologne 2022.
Liquid - Rating at event: EliGE 1.27 | oSee 1.15 | NAF 1.09 | YEKINDAR 1.03 | nitr0 0.89
Liquid - Rating past three months: EliGE 1.16 | NAF 1.16 | oSee 1.09 | YEKINDAR 1.08 | nitr0 0.92
Movistar Riders - Rating at event: SunPayus 1.16 | mopoz 1.14 | dav1g 1.05 | alex 0.95 | DeathZz 0.92
Movistar Riders - Rating past three months: SunPayus 1.16 | alex 1.09 | mopoz 1.06 | DeathZz 0.94 | dav1g 0.92
H2H Data:
These rosters have never faced each other. The teams last met in March at ESL Pro League Season 15 when Liquid was still playing with shox instead of YEKINDAR. Movistar Riders won that series 2-1 (14-16 Inferno / 16-12 Mirage / 19-16 Ancient) and SunPayus led the server with 79 kills and a 1.40 Rating across three maps played.
Map Projections:
Movistar Riders removes Dust2
Liquid removes Nuke
Movistar Riders picks Inferno
Liquid picks Ancient
Movistar Riders removes Mirage
Liquid removes Overpass
Vertigo is left over
Prediction/Narrative: Movistar Riders win 2-1.
Liquid are still playing with their "super stand-in" YEKINDAR and they have a 7-3 W/L record across 10 maps played with this lineup so far. Liquid have certainly looked solid, and YEKINDAR is an upgrade over shox on paper, but YEKINDAR has still only managed a 1.03 Rating and 0.99 K/D ratio with Liquid thus far. This Liquid lineup has potential due to their firepower, but just how far can they realistically go in the playoffs with a new player? Plus, Liquid are running into one of the hottest teams in the world, Movistar Riders, who had won eight series in a row prior to their 1-2 loss against NAVI on Sunday. Movistar Riders have been playing excellent Counter-Strike as of late, and they have a 21-11 W/L record across 32 maps played in the past month. Movistar Riders have managed a winning record on Inferno, Vertigo, Ancient, and Nuke during that time.
With Liquid likely banning Nuke, Movistar Riders may look to Inferno, where they just beat NAVI & G2 earlier at this event. NAVI & G2 are two of the best Inferno teams in the world, meanwhile Liquid haven't even played that map with this lineup yet. Ancient has been the go-to map for Liquid so far with YEKINDAR in the mix, but Movistar Riders beat them on that map last time despite Liquid winning the pistol round and following two conversion rounds in both halves. If this series goes to a third map, then Movistar Riders should be able to set themselves up with another map that they feel comfortable on like Vertigo, where they have a 5-2 W/L record across seven maps played in the past month. Overall, Movistar Riders seem like they should be the favorites in this series. Liquid have plenty of potential with a high-upside player like YEKINDAR in their lineup, but Movistar Riders should be able to take two maps here.
- Movistar Riders opening duel attempt leaders at event: mopoz 34.3% | dav1g 18.7% | SunPayus 17.2%
- On Inferno, mopoz leads Movistar Riders with a 1.20 Rating while SunPayus leads with a 1.16 K/D ratio across 10 maps played in the past three months.
- On Ancient, mopoz leads Movistar Riders with a 1.09 Rating while SunPayus leads with a 1.13 K/D ratio across eight maps played in the past three months.
Favorite Draftkings Plays (In order of priority):
SunPayus ($8,200) | mopoz ($6,400) | alex ($7,400) | dav1g ($5,000) | oSee ($7,000) | DeathZz ($5,600) | YEKINDAR ($6,000)