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Astralis (World rank: #4) vs. MOUZ (World rank: #10) – 6:30 A.M. ET

Moneyline Odds: Astralis (-105) | MOUZ (-115)

Map Handicap: Astralis +1.5 (-310) | MOUZ -1.5 (+245)

This is a best-of-three on LAN for ESL Pro League Season 16 - Group C

Astralis - Rating at event: blameF 1.35 | gla1ve 1.12 | Farlig 1.11 | k0nfig 1.06 | Xyp9x 1.01

Astralis - Rating past three months: blameF 1.26 | k0nfig 1.04 | gla1ve 0.99 | Farlig 0.99 | Xyp9x 0.99

MOUZ - Rating at event: xertioN 1.25 | frozen 1.16 | torzsi 1.14 | JDC 1.12 | dexter 0.97

MOUZ - Rating past three months: frozen 1.15 | xertioN 1.14 | torzsi 1.14 | JDC 1.00 | dexter 1.00

H2H Data:

These rosters have never faced each other. The teams last met in July at IEM Cologne 2022, prior to MOUZ adding xertioN. Astralis won that series 2-1 (8-16 Mirage / 16-9 Nuke / 16-12 Ancient) and blameF led the server with 63 kills and a 1.37 Rating.

Prediction: Astralis wins 2-1.

I don’t want to overreact to what happened on Wednesday. Yes, MOUZ looked really good, but Heroic picked Dust2 which is their usual permaban, so it is clear that Heroic were experimenting quite a bit. Also, Astralis may have lost to Complexity, but they had a 15-12 lead on CT Nuke and were very close to sweeping that series. XertioN top fragged against Heroic with 48 kills and a 1.25 Rating across two maps and proved that he belongs at this level alongside his former MOUZ NXT teammates. However, I don’t think MOUZ can bank on that type of firepower from him going forward. I expect Astralis to win this series rather than open up the group stage 0-2.  BlameF continues to be the only member of Astralis that we can rely on and he showed that with his 1.35 Rating in the loss to Complexity. BlameF is the priority play for me, and his teammates are cheap enough on Draftkings to consider stacking alongside him, though I expect this series to be pretty back-and-forth.

Favorite Draftkings Plays (In order of priority): 

blameF ($10,000) | Farlig ($6,800) | k0nfig ($7,400) | gla1ve ($5,800) | torzsi ($7,800) | JDC ($4,800) 


Complexity (World rank: #29) vs. HEET (World rank: #32) – 10:00 A.M. ET

Moneyline Odds: Complexity (-110) | HEET (-110)

Map Handicap: Complexity +1.5 (-315) | HEET -1.5 (+240)

This is a best-of-three on LAN for ESL Pro League Season 16 - Group C

Complexity - Rating at event: Grim 1.13 | hallzerk 1.03 | FaNg 1.03 | floppy 0.88 | JT 0.81

Complexity - Rating past three months: Grim 1.14 | hallzerk 1.07 | FaNg 1.03 | floppy 0.98 | JT 0.88

HEET - Rating at event: bodyy 0.93 | afro 0.87 | JACKZ 0.86 | Djoko 0.78 | Ex3rcice 0.63

HEET - Rating past three months: afro 1.17 | bodyy 1.08 | Ex3rcice 1.02 | Djoko 0.97 | JACKZ 0.94

H2H Data:

These rosters have never faced each other. The teams last faced at ESL Challenger February 2022, prior to Complexity adding hallzerk and prior to HEET adding JACKZ. Complexity won that series 2-1 (19-16 Vertigo / 12-16 Ancient / 16-11 Inferno) and FaNg led the server with 82 kills and a 1.32 Rating across three maps.

Prediction: HEET wins 2-1.

I predicted that Complexity would keep things close against Astralis and they did, though they almost got swept when they were down 12-15 on T side Nuke prior to pulling the comeback. Complexity has been scrappy since adding hallzerk and they now have an 8-5 W/L record across 13 maps played. Still, I think their win over Astralis says more about the inconsistencies of Astralis rather than the talent of Complexity, so I don’t want to give them too much credit for opening the group stage 1-0. As for HEET, I think the French team has just as much talent as the North Americans, and I think they will be desperate to bounce back after their loss to ENCE. HEET got destroyed by ENCE on Dust2, but it’s still HEET’s best and most played map, so I expect them to go back to it here considering they have a 5-3 W/L record on it with this lineup. Both teams typically ban Mirage, so the map pool could be affected by whichever team bans something else, but assuming Dust2 makes it through then I expect HEET to pick it and I’d favor them on it. The rest of the map pool could seemingly go either way, so I do think HEET have paths to winning this best-of-three. My preference on Draftkings is to stack HEET, though there are some solid options on Complexity as well, like FaNg who top fragged when these teams last met and is only $4,200. 

Favorite Draftkings Plays (In order of priority): 

afro ($9,200) | bodyy ($8,200) | JACKZ ($5,200) | Ex3rcice ($4,600) | FaNg ($4,200) | hallzerk ($7,600) | Grim ($8,000) 


Heroic (World rank: #15) vs. ENCE (World rank: #16) – 1:30 P.M. ET

Moneyline Odds: Heroic (-120) | ENCE (Even)

Map Handicap: Heroic -1.5 (+230) | ENCE +1.5 (-290)

This is a best-of-three on LAN for ESL Pro League Season 16 - Group C

Heroic - Rating at event: stavn 1.08 | cadiaN 1.01 | TeSeS 0.95 | jabbi 0.89 | sjuush 0.77

Heroic - Rating past three months: stavn 1.14 | TeSeS 1.06 | sjuush 1.01 | cadiaN 0.99 | jabbi 0.97

ENCE - Rating at event: valde 1.47 | dycha 1.32 | SunPayus 1.29 | Snappi 1.21 | Maden 1.20

ENCE - Rating past three months: valde 1.47 | SunPayus 1.22 | dycha 1.01 | Maden 0.98 | Snappi 0.87

H2H Data:

These rosters have never faced each other. The teams last met in May at PGL Major Antwerp 2022, prior to Heroic adding jabbi and prior to ENCE adding SunPayus & valde. ENCE won that series 2-1 (14-16 Overpass / 16-12 Mirage / 16-6 Nuke) and dycha led the way with 68 kills and a 1.30 Rating across three maps. 

Prediction: ENCE wins 2-1.

I was all over Heroic on Wednesday and they *checks notes* decided to pick Dust2 as their map pick? Dust2 is Heroic’s permaban and we practically never see them play that map, so it was a bold choice for sure. Last time Heroic picked Dust2 was at IEM Fall 2021 Europe, and the Danes bombed out of that event in 12th place, which earned them zero RMR points. We saw Heroic pick Dust2 one other time at ESL Pro League Season 13 in April 2021, but that was a much different spot because it was against FURIA; Dust2 was a punish pick since FURIA typically banned it to start as well. Heroic did go on to win Season 13, but in general I don’t want to back a team that is playing around with their map pool like they did on Wednesday. Additionally, ENCE looked really solid against HEET. ENCE’s sweep over the French gave us our first look at this new roster, and valde & SunPayus both looked excellent. We still don’t fully know what to expect from ENCE at this point, but all of the individuals look to be in good form at this event. The biggest factor for me here though is the pricing on Draftkings. ENCE are significantly cheaper to stack on DK despite the odds being a near coinflip. I see this as a winnable spot for ENCE, so I am more than happy to take a stand and play them at cheap pricing. 

Favorite Draftkings Plays (In order of priority): 

SunPayus ($6,600) | dycha ($6,200) | valde ($5,600) | Maden ($5,000) | stavn ($10,400) | sjuush ($7,000) | jabbi ($6,400) 


*Top Stacks: Astralis, HEET, ENCE

*Favorite Captains: blameF, afro, SunPayus, k0nfig, bodyy, stavn

*Favorite Value: Farlig, dycha, JACKZ, gla1ve, valde, Maden, Ex3rcice, FaNg, sjuush, hallzerk, torzsi, jabbi, Grim, JDC