CS:GO DFS Playbook September 14: Top DraftKings DFS Picks
ESL Pro League Season 16 continues on Wednesday! Check out our favorite Counter-Strike: Global Offensive DFS plays for Draftkings with our esports playbook. Keep the CS:GO winning going! Check out our partners over on PrizePicks, Underdog Fantasy, Monkey Knife Fight & join our FREE Discord!
Heroic (World rank: #15) vs. MOUZ (World rank: #10) – 6:30 A.M. ET
Moneyline Odds: Heroic (-155) | MOUZ (+125)
Map Handicap: Heroic -1.5 (+200) | MOUZ +1.5 (-250)
This is a best-of-three on LAN for ESL Pro League Season 16 - Group C
Heroic - Rating at event: N/A
Heroic - Rating past three months: stavn 1.15 | TeSeS 1.07 | sjuush 1.04 | cadiaN 0.99 | jabbi 0.98
MOUZ - Rating at event: N/A
MOUZ - Rating past three months: frozen 1.15 | torzsi 1.14 | xertioN* (with MOUZ NXT) 1.13 | dexter 1.01 | JDC 0.99
H2H Data:
These rosters have never faced each other. The teams last played in July at IEM Cologne 2022, prior to MOUZ benching Bymas, and MOUZ won 2-0 (16-13 Vertigo / 16-10 Nuke). JDC led the server with 47 kills and a 1.33 Rating across two maps played.
Prediction: Heroic wins 2-0.
In my mind, Heroic should be one of the biggest favorites on the slate, so I am hammering them as only a (-155) moneyline favorite. MOUZ recently announced that they were benching Bymas, which means that xertioN will make his debut in the main MOUZ roster on Wednesday. The former MOUZ NXT trio of JDC, torzsi, and xertioN will be reunited, but we have yet to see this new MOUZ lineup play a single map together thus far. As for Heroic, they may have gotten swept by MOUZ back at IEM Cologne, but that was the first event that the Danes played with jabbi in the lineup. The previous result does not concern me from Heroic’s perspective given the fact that they have now had more time to prepare with jabbi, meanwhile MOUZ will need to find their footing with xertioN here at Pro League. Also, Heroic & MOUZ faced in another best-of-three days before at the IEM Cologne Play-in and Heroic managed a 2-1 victory. Heroic have won two of their last three on Nuke with the lone loss coming against FaZe, and Heroic have also picked up wins on Mirage, Ancient, Inferno, and Overpass since adding jabbi. Overall, I think Heroic are the better team, and I think it is only a matter of time before they establish themselves as elite with jabbi. MOUZ have the advantage in the AWP battle with torzsi versus cadiaN, but the rest of the firepower on the side of Heroic should be overwhelming, and I expect a sweep in this spot.
- Stavn leads Heroic with a 1.15 Rating, while sjuush is tied with stavn with a 1.10 K/D ratio across 17 maps played.
- Stavn also leads with 0.14 opening kills per round and 25.8% opening duel attempts during that time.
Favorite Draftkings Plays (In order of priority):
Stavn ($9,400) | sjuush ($7,400) | TeSeS ($8,200) | jabbi ($5,600) | torzsi ($7,200) | cadiaN ($6,400) | JDC ($5,000)
Astralis (World rank: #4) vs. Complexity (World rank: #29) – 10:00 A.M. ET
Moneyline Odds: Astralis (-350) | Complexity (+275)
Map Handicap: Astralis -1.5 (+105) | Complexity +1.5 (-130)
This is a best-of-three on LAN for ESL Pro League Season 16 - Group C
Astralis - Rating at event: N/A
Astralis - Rating past three months: blameF 1.26 | k0nfig 1.03 | Xyp9x 0.99 | Farlig 0.99 | gla1ve 0.98
Complexity - Rating at event: N/A
Complexity - Rating past three months: Grim 1.14 | hallzerk 1.09 | FaNg 1.03 | floppy 1.00 | JT 0.90
H2H Data:
These rosters have never faced each other. The teams last met in July at the IEM Cologne 2022 Play-in, prior to Complexity adding hallzerk, and Astralis swept 2-0 (16-10 Overpass / 16-9 Nuke). BlameF led the server with 41 kills and a 1.40 Rating across two maps played.
Prediction: Astralis wins 2-1.
Astralis are the biggest favorites on the slate, but my confidence is actually fairly low in the #4 ranked team. The Danes have a respectable 10-8 W/L record in the past month, but that win rate is a lot less impressive when you consider that they have losses against Aurora, los kogutos, and SAW during that time. BlameF seems to be the only consistent member of this roster, and he is the only member with a K/D ratio above one in the past month besides Farlig, who is barely above that threshold with a 1.01 K/D ratio. Sure, there is plenty of talent on the side of Astralis, but I am generally looking to fade this team as a heavy favorite considering their lack of consistency. Astralis have typically beaten Complexity in the past, but Complexity look to be greatly improved since bringing in hallzerk to take over the AWPing duties from junior. Complexity have a 6-4 W/L record across 10 maps played with this lineup, and they have even managed to beat NAVI in a best-of-one. Complexity have shown weaknesses, particularly on T side, but I do believe they are a live underdog on Wednesday. Complexity should be able to stay competitive on Inferno, Overpass, and even Nuke, and I certainly expect them to make this a series. I’m still picking Astralis to win, but I don’t think they are as much of a “lock” as the odds seem to indicate. BlameF is the only play here that I really feel good about, and I would rather roll the dice on a cheap Complexity guy than trust some of the value plays on Astralis.
- blameF leads Astralis with a 1.19 Rating and 1.21 K/D ratio across 18 maps played in the past month.
- blameF also leads with 0.13 opening kills per round, while k0nfig leads with 23.9% opening duel attempts during that time.
Favorite Draftkings Plays (In order of priority):
BlameF ($10,200) | hallzerk ($6,000) | Grim ($6,800) | k0nfig ($9,000) | gla1ve ($6,400) | floppy ($4,800) | Farlig ($7,800)
ENCE (World rank: #16) vs. HEET (World rank: #32) – 1:30 P.M. ET
Moneyline Odds: ENCE (-225) | HEET (+180)
Map Handicap: ENCE -1.5 (+160) | HEET +1.5 (-200)
This is a best-of-three on LAN for ESL Pro League Season 16 - Group C
ENCE - Rating at event: N/A
ENCE - Rating past three months: SunPayus* (with Movistar Riders) 1.22 | dycha 0.98 | Maden 0.96 | Snappi 0.84 | valde N/A
HEET - Rating at event: N/A
HEET - Rating past three months: afro 1.19 | bodyy 1.08 | Ex3rcice 1.03 | Djoko 0.98 | JACKZ* (with G2/HEET) 0.95
H2H Data:
These rosters have never faced each other. The teams last met in April at the PGL Major Antwerp 2022 Europe RMR, prior to ENCE adding SunPayus & valde, and prior to HEET adding JACKZ. ENCE won 16-8 in a best-of-one on Ancient, though Spinx led the way with 40 kills and a 2.45 Rating.
Prediction: HEET wins 2-1.
Both of these lineups have changed since they last faced each other, though ENCE’s loss of their star rifler, Spinx, seems like the most significant change. ENCE have not yet played a lineup with this roster and it will be interesting to see if they can perform as well as the previous iteration of ENCE, which reached #2 in the world rankings. On paper, SunPayus is an upgrade on the AWP from hades, and valde is serviceable veteran to take the spot of Spinx. I expect SunPayus to perform well right away, but it has been nearly five months since valde played an official match, so he is more of a question mark. Either way, it will be near impossible to replace the firepower of Spinx, as demonstrated by his 40 kills and 2.45 Rating last time against HEET. The next highest kill total on the server was 24, so that 40-bomb from Spinx goes to show how much impact he was able to find with the rifle. As for HEET, they added JACKZ to replace Lucky last month, and I think that move can be viewed as an upgrade. Sure, JACKZ had his share of struggles against elite teams as a member of G2, but he is still a veteran talent and he brings an edge to a borderline tier one team such as HEET. Also, HEET have already played some official matches with JACKZ, which has resulted in an 8-5 W/L record across 13 maps played. HEET have already proven themselves with solid wins against EC Kyiv, Entropiq, Benched Heroes, and 1WIN, and I think they have the talent to stay competitive with ENCE. I also think HEET are not the type of team to let this opportunity on the big stage go to waste, and I expect them to give ENCE a run for their money. We have two new members on the side of ENCE, plus you have the existing members (dycha, Maden, Snappi) in poor form n recent months, so the upset potential is certainly there. HEET have played well on Dust2 with a 5-2 W/L record and that map could be their ticket to winning as an underdog. Either way, I’m expecting a tight series here, and my preference would be to take the value on HEET rather than trust ENCE as a favorite in this spot.
- afro leads HEET with a 1.26 Rating and 1.32 K/D ratio across 13 maps played.
- afro also leads with 0.17 opening kills per round and 23.5% opening duel attempts during that time.
Favorite Draftkings Plays (In order of priority):
afro ($7,000) | Ex3rcice ($5,600) | SunPayus ($9,800) | bodyy ($6,800) | JACKZ ($4,400) | dycha ($8,600) | valde ($5,800)