When there are only three or four games, we will not put out the full DFS Playbook, but will do optimal lineups along with a breakdown of the slate. Tonight, we have the typical Wednesday Night slate with three games to consider.
First off, a disclaimer. I highly recommend focusing on just GPPs on the shorter slate. I think there’s enough skill to play cash games, but there’s going to be way more variance than usual.
Pittsburgh Penguins @ New York Islanders (Pittsburgh -160 favorites) - 8:00 PM ET
Starting Goalies: Matt Murray (PIT) [Confirmed] vs. Thomas Greiss (NYI) [Confirmed]
Top Plays: Evgeni Malkin, John Tavares, Sidney Crosby, Patric Hornqvist
Top Values: Jake Guentzel, Conor Sheary, Brock Nelson, Johnny Boychuk
At press time, New York is still quite a mess with a team defense that bleeds shots and chances like a sieve. The problem is their offense is almost predicated on their top line being engaged in every game. That seems to be a trigger point in the grand scheme of things. Goaltending has been problematic although Thomas Greiss has two wins in his last three starts (allowing four goals on over 80 shots in those wins). The Islanders power play misses a net front presence and a consistent power play quarterback. There is a lot missing and a lot that needs to be fixed before New York truly can get it going.
Pittsburgh is a favorite tonight on the road because Matt Murray has been more consistent in net. He plays a calmer style than Marc-Andre Fleury and even when the Penguins defense falters, he seems to be even keeled enough to handle the load. The goalie has won seven of his first eight starts on the year with a stellar .939 save percentage. Add in the prospect of getting back Patric Hornqvist from a concussion tonight and it is easy to see why the defending champions are where they are on the money line. One concern may be their penalty kill but the Islanders power play is under 13% on the year so far.
Toronto Maple Leafs @ Calgary Flames (EVEN) - 8:30 PM ET
Starting Goalies: Frederik Andersen (TOR) [Possible] vs. Chad Johnson (CGY) [Confirmed]
Top Plays: Auston Matthews, James van Riemsdyk
Top Values: Nazem Kadri, Michael Frolik, Sean Monahan, Mitch Marner
It will be wild to see how Toronto comes out tonight considering they were a house of fire early against Edmonton. They did stabilize and ultimately won. Also, their goalie did not appear to be under that much duress throughout most of the contest. Calgary has a slowly improving penalty kill but only has one power play goal on the year at home. Special teams is a point Toronto can attack at and the Maple Leafs' power play should be able to cause a good bit of havoc.
Calgary can be a little bit frustrating because of the constant line shuffling. Sean Monahan is back on the top line again as the more possession potent second line may still be one to watch tonight. Michael Frolik and Matthew Tkachuk can create a good bit of chaos at even strength and on the penalty kill. That has helped slowly raise their percentage. Chad Johnson has been very good in net posting the numbers many expected from Brian Elliott at this juncture of the season. Calgary is also the team that is rested and that is important to note.
San Jose Sharks @ Los Angeles Kings (LAK -135 favorites) – 10:30 PM ET
Starting Goalies: Martin Jones (SJS) [Confirmed] vs. Peter Budaj (LAK) [Likely]
Top Plays: Jeff Carter, Brent Burns
Top Values: Tyler Toffoli, Alec Martinez, Patrick Marleau, Logan Couture
Los Angeles has been getting better goaltending from Peter Budaj of late and that has keyed their bounce back within the division. Few expected him to have 12 wins in 19 starts but here we are. He is posting close to Jonathan Quick like numbers just in different ways when it comes to save percentages from high to low in danger. The bottom line is he gives the team a chance to win. That has allowed Jeff Carter and company to regain some of their scoring touch. They have won five straight games, scoring 17 goals in that span. The big concern is still the power play which is only converting at just over 12%.
San Jose has been a little up and down themselves and unlike last year, they are only around .500 on the road this season. Los Angeles is also 9-2 at home which will make this match-up that much more difficult. The Sharks come off a game last night against Arizona where they fired over 40 shots on net. What do they have left? It's a great question to ask at this point. Their special teams units will be vital as they are 18.5% on the power play and 85.4% on the penalty kill. Those are better than Los Angeles. If Martin Jones starts, he will have to play like he did in their first game of the season.
Stacks To Consider (Ranked From Most To Least Confident):
PIT1: Conor Sheary-Sidney Crosby-Patric Hornqvist - (possibly Kris Letang)
LAK2: Tanner Pearson-Jeff Carter-Tyler Toffoli-Alec Martinez
PIT2: Jake Guentzel-Evgeni Malkin- (possibly Phil Kessel/Bryan Rust)
TOR1: James Van Riemsdyk-Tyler Bozak-Mitch Marner- (possibly Morgan Rielly)
CGY2: Matthew Tkachuk-Mikael Backlund-Michael Frolik
SJS1: Patrick Marleau-Joe Pavelski-Brent Burns
TOR2: Leo Komarov-Nazem Kadri-Nikita Soshnikov
SJS2: Joonas Donskoi-Logan Couture-Joel Ward
NYI3: Anders Lee-Ryan Strome-Jason Chimera (High risk but upside and could change)
LAK3: Dustin Brown-Nic Dowd-Devin Setoguchi (adjust a hair higher for GPP’s and some salary relief)
Goalie Rankings:
1. Peter Budaj (Likely)
2. Matt Murray (Confirmed)
3. Thomas Greiss (Confirmed)
4. Chad Johnson (Confirmed)
5. Frederik Andersen (Possible)
6. Martin Jones (Confirmed)
The DraftKings example lineup and FanDuel optimal lineup was posted around 4 PM ET. If you have any questions, please let me know on Twitter @ChrisWasselDFS Good luck!
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