Despite posting lower numbers across the board, Colorado outfielder Charlie Blackmon still put up a solid stat line, even if his fantasy owners clamored for more. In 2018, the star outfielder hit 29 home runs, drove in 70 runs, scored 119 times, swiped 12 bags, and posted a respectable .291/.358/.502 slash line. Albeit a great stat line, the numbers came back to reality after an otherworldly 2017 campaign. After exceeding all expectations that season, the numbers unfortunately came back to reality, and even declined a bit. Despite entering his mid-30s, Blackmon remains a valuable fantasy asset, but he’s no longer a first, or even a second round pick outside of 15-team formats. Even then, he’s better suited as a third-round fantasy selection.

After stealing 43 bases back in 2015, Blackmon’s numbers have fallen each year, including just 12 bags last year. Furthermore, he only attempted to run 16 times, and in 2016 and 2017, he attempted 20+ stolen bases. Around 20 attempts is likely to be on the high-end this season, as Blackmon is another year older and his sprint speed of 27.6 ft/sec was his slowest in the past four seasons. In 2019, planning on anything more than 15 stolen bases from Blackmon may leave you a bit disappointed.

Okay, we waited long enough to mention this, but with Blackmon’s home park being Coors Field, even if he continues to decline, it should be smooth sailing into the sunset. His numbers at home have remained excellent, and there is a pretty stark drop in his production away from his home park. Take a look at some of his numbers over the past few years at home compared to on the road.

STAT

HOME

AWAY

AVG

.354

.279

OBP

.419

.342

OPS

1.048

.823

HR

50

45


Luckily for Blackmon, the home run production has been pretty steady, so there is some sustainability to maintaining his home run rate over the prior few seasons. However, Blackmon won’t be a 30+ home run bat like he was in 2017, and his 29 home runs from last year will be on the high-end of his range of outcomes for the 2019 season, especially considering that his xHR total last season was 24.5, per xStats. Yes, Coors Field is a hitter’s haven, however, you can take any average Joe and stick him in Coors Field and everything changes. Look at Ian Desmond . His numbers didn’t catapult in Colorado, because regardless of where you play, hitting ground balls doesn’t translate to power production.

YEAR

HR

GB%

FB%

GB/FB

HR/FB

EXIT VELO

LAUNCH ANGLE

2015

17

38.3%

36.9%

1.04

9.3%

85.5

13.5

2016

29

34.4%

37.8%

0.91

16.2%

86.9

14.5

2017

37

40.7%

37.0%

1.10

19.6%

86.9

12.8

2018

29

43.4%

33.4%

1.30

17.7%

87.2

11.8


The increasing exit velocity off the bat is nice, but it’s rather misguided, as the decreasing launch angle and increasing ground ball rate adds some stench to the whole scenario. The 1.30 GB/FB ratio was his highest mark since 2013 and well above recent seasons when he was popping 30 or more round-trippers. Playing half of his games in Coors will help the HR/FB ratio a good bit, but if that starts to dip, that home run total is in grave danger. Blackmon is on the wrong side of 30 and trading fly balls and line drives for ground balls surely won’t help that home run total. With that in mind, projecting Blackmon for 25 home runs is a much safer bet than 30 long balls this season. The rolling line chart below showcases that his average launch angle is tending down, sans a few spikes mixed in.

All of the doom and gloom isn’t to detract you from taking Blackmon, as he can still stuff the stat sheet, but it’s more so a precursor of what is to come. While still being a valuable fantasy asset and probably one of the more well-rounded selections in the third round, the Colorado outfielder is no longer the first or second round selection he was in previous seasons.

Blackmon will contribute in all five categories this season, but selecting him in the first or second round negates any potential profitability in 2019.

Statistical Credits:
fangraphs.com
baseballsavant.mlb.com
xstats.org