Dee Gordon was one of a few players in general with sizable stolen base upside that didn’t pan out in 2018 and because of that, Gordon’s average draft position (ADP) is much lower in 2019 than it has been in recent years. This, FA Nation, provides the opportunity for a unique opportunity to draft a player that could hit .280 and steal upwards of 50 bases for our fantasy squads. It’s not even that a few things have to go right for Gordon, but more so that he just returns to his career averages for most of his marks. There were some rather significant outliers for Gordon, and just getting on base more will provide more opportunities to aggregate the counting stats, run and stolen bases, for which fantasy owners rely on Gordon.

Take a look at some of Gordon’s marks in 2018, compared to his career averages, and you will just how statistically significant his 2018 was, primarily for the worst.

 

BB%

BABIP

AVG

OBP

wOBA

O-Swing%

Launch Angle

Games per SB Attempt

Gordon (2018)

1.5%

.304

.268

.288

.277

41.4%

3.5

3.36

Gordon (Career Avg.)

4.0%

.338

.289

.322

.301

36.4%

1.0

2.12 (1.98 excl. 2018)


It’s not even as simple as the fact that his numbers slightly regressed across the board. Those are some steep, steep, steep declines, especially in batting average, on-base percentage and games per stolen base attempt.  While a fractured toe cost him some time on the disabled list last season, it’s very plausible that he came back when he was good enough to play, and not necessarily at full speed and health. In fact, that probably is what happened, seeing as 16 of his 30 stolen bases came in his first 46 games of the season, with the other 14 coming in the last 95 games. Furthermore, in terms of efficiency, Gordon was 16-for-18 in the first two months of the season, good for an 88.9-percent success rate. However, after the injury, he was just 14-for-24 (58.3-percent). Yes, he didn’t get to run as much because he didn’t get on base as frequently.

Gordon’s hard contact rate was actually the highest of his career last season, but his fly ball rate was the third-highest mark of his career. Unlike the big time power bats, it’s imperative that Gordon puts the ball on the ground, because fly balls essentially negate his speed prowess. Some of Gordon’s worst seasons in terms of batting average have come in years where Gordon posted an elevated fly ball rate.

YEAR

FLY BALL %

AVG (OBP)

2013

30.2%

.234 (.314)

2016

22.8%

.268 (.305)

2018

22.4%

.268 (.288)


Conversely, check out his batting average in the three seasons where he posted his lowest fly ball rates.

YEAR

FLY BALL %

AVG (OBP)

2015

18.7%

.333 (.359)

2014

19.1%

.289 (.326)

2017

19.6%

.308 (.341)


Sure, other factors are certainly in play in those above tables, but a return to hitting line drives and keeping the baseball on the ground will be key for Gordon to get the batting average and on-base percentage back on track. His speed puts pressure on the defenses, but whether you run like Gordon or Edwin Encarnación , fly balls don’t make defenders nervous. Gordon’s speed on ground balls can force the defenders to rush, and quite frankly, they oftentimes have to do with the fleet afoot infielder/outfielder.

Gordon’s walk rate of 1.5 percent was the lowest mark of his career and first time he dropped below three percent in his entire career. His contact rate was a full percentage point below his career mark, he whiffed more often and his O-Swing percentage (pitches swung at outside the strike zone) was four points higher than his career average. The walk rate decreased substantially in 2018, due to Gordon’s increased propensity that season to chase out of the zone and swing and miss.

There is a favorable buying opportunity on Gordon in 2019, and quite frankly, he’s undervalued. If he stays healthy and avoids a freak injury, he has the upside to steal 50 bases for a Mariners offense that will have to create some magic. Based on THE BAT projections, courtesy of Derek Carty, there are only two players (Billy Hamilton , Gordon) projected to steal more than 40 bases. Furthermore, of the five players projected to steal 25 or more bases and hit .275 or higher, Gordon is the only player with an ADP outside of the top 100 picks, per NFBC.

Speed doesn’t grow on trees, and Gordon is one of the few that has massive upside in that department without being a drain on your team’s batting average. In fact, he could even be a plus in department, assuming he progresses to the mean.

Statistical Credits:
fangraphs.com
baseballsavant.mlb.com