Willson Contreras enjoyed an excellent 2017 campaign, further thrusting him on the fantasy scene after an excellent stint back in 2016. In 76 games that year, Contreras hit .282 and popped 12 home runs, enticing fantasy owners with what “could be” in 2017. He certainly didn’t disappoint, as he hit 21 home runs and drove in 74 runs with a .276/.356/.499 slash line across 117 games. Contreras was in the conversation for best fantasy catcher heading into last season, where fantasy owners had a tough call between the likes of J.T. Realmuto , Gary Sánchez and Contreras. Well, 2018 wasn’t quite what fantasy owners envisioned when selecting the Chicago backstop.

Contreras watched his batting average plummet to .249 and his slugging percentage to .390, well over 100 points below his mark for 2017. Additionally, he only hit 10 home runs and knocked in 54 runs. The strikeout rate and walk rate remained similar, and he used the opposite field much more in 2018 than years past, but with similar success, albeit less power. While he lacked in the power department through the first half of the season, the second “half” of the season is where the ultimate disappointment rears its ugly head for Contreras’ 2018 campaign.

SPLIT

G

HR

RBI

AVG

BABIP

1st Half

82

7

34

.279

.344

2nd Half

55

3

20

.200

.260


Also, in the first half of the season, Contreras posted 31.7 hard contact and 20.3 soft contact rates. Those marks worsened after the Midsummer Classic, as his hard contact decreased to 23.9 percent and the soft contact rate jumped to 26.2 percent. At the same point, from the chart below, per Baseball Savant, Contreras’ launch angle diminished as the season wore on. So, when you put it all together, he made less hard and more soft contact as the season wore on, all while seeing his average launch angle experience a gradual decline over the course of the entire season. This can also explain the steep drop off in his HR/FB ratio.

In 2016, he posted a 23.5 percent HR/FB ratio, only to see that number increase to 25.9 percent in 2017. However, for many of the reasons above, that mark fell to 9.3 percent last season. This will certainly happen to a player when you see your average exit velocity and hard contact rate drop to the 25th and 29th percentiles respectively.

The BABIP certainly aided in driving down that batting average over his last 55 games, as did the increased soft contact rate. Additionally, Contreras saw his barrel rate drop significantly from years prior. His barrel percentage of 10.3 in 2017 was sufficient, but that mark fell to 7.3 percent last year.

However, let’s not diminish the fact that the Chicago backstop caught the most innings in all of baseball last season. The catcher position is like no other, and it can really wear down that particular player. In 2017, he caught 821 innings, which is nearly 300 innings less than what he commanded in 2018. Contreras is an excellent defensive catcher and even throughout slumps, he’s the best defensive, and offensive, option behind the plate the Cubs have in its system. His playing time is safe, so there’s no worries about him losing his job. However, when your draft rolls around, take into account the fact that he had never caught that many innings in a season before and perhaps the Cubs provide him with a few more off days here and there.

Say what you want about his down 2018 season, but there are more signs pointing to a bounce back season for Contreras compared to a repeat of last year’s performance. Any increase in his hard contact and barrel rates, which can certainly be done in 2019, as well as a progression to the mean in terms of his overall BABIP, will lead to a profitable 2019 season for his fantasy owners. I’m not the only one in on a bounce back campaign for Contreras, as THE BAT projections, courtesy of Derek Carty, has Contreras as just one of five catchers in 2019 that hit at least 15 home runs with 55 or more RBI and an OPS north of .765. Additionally, you’ll pocket a few steals with Contreras, who has swiped at least four bags each of the past two seasons.

Contreras is poised for a bounce back campaign and his suppressed ADP makes Contreras one of the best values at the catcher position in 2019.

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Statistical Credits:

fangraphs.com
baseballsavant.mlb.com