After an absurd fly ball rate of 50.5-percent and 14 home runs in 84 games back in 2017, Matt Chapman was a trendy pick for a sizable increase in his home run output across a full big league season. While Chapman did park 24 long balls, it wasn’t quite the power output many were expecting when selecting him in the middle rounds of numerous drafts. It was still an excellent season for the young third baseman, as he slashed .278/.356/.508 with 100 runs scored, 24 home runs and 68 RBI in 145 games in 2018. In 2017 we saw more power and less average for Chapman, but 2018 displayed adequate pop and solid average for the corner infielder. By cutting his strikeout rate by nearly five percentage points, he was able to make more contact and ride a .338 BABIP to that near-.280 clip.

If Chapman were to fall into prolonged slump in 2019, his playing time shouldn’t be affected as he’s one of the best defensive third baseman in the game. His 13.1 DEF rating on FanGraphs led all third baseman, and the closest to Chapman was Seattle’s Kyle Seager at 8.8. Furthermore, only José Ramírez and Alex Bregman had a higher Wins Above Replacement (WAR) rating than Chapman. Barring injury, Chapman will play 150-plus games at the hot corner for the Athletics.

The power upside is still there for Chapman as he ranked in the 98th and 93rd percentile in exit velocity and hard-hit percentage respectively in 2018. His average exit velocity last year trailed only Aaron Judge , Nelson Cruz , Joey Gallo and Giancarlo Stanton . His average launch angle was actually better than all of those aforementioned mentioned players, sans Gallo. Chapman’s home park doesn’t do him any favors, as his park is significantly worse for power than some of those other guys. The power output wasn’t as comparable, due to the fact that Chapman went on the disabled list with a thumb contusion, and it takes time to bounce back to full health from a thumb issue. Additionally, down the stretch run of the season, his ground ball rates soared and he was hitting fewer fly balls.

Chapman routinely makes hard, loud contact and maintaining a consistent launch angle will be key for consistent home run production. After hitting nine home runs in 27 August games, he popped just two round-trippers over the final 25 games of the season as the fly balls decreased and the ground balls increased. He hit 42 doubles and six triples last season, and even a small increase in his launch angle, especially in road games, will turn those balls into home runs.

The reduction in his strikeout rate from 2017 to 2018 was due in part to being more disciplined and not chasing out of the zone. His O-Swing percentage in 2018 was greatly reduced compared to 2017, and while it’s not solely tied to the zones below, the slight reduction in swing percentage of pitches below the strike zone was key. He still likes to go for the high fastball out of the zone, despite not really hitting that pitch for power.

Staying in the zone is key for just about every player in the big league, but to maintain a reliable batting average and keep the contact percentage closer to 80 percent, reducing the swings outside of the strike zone is imperative for Chapman as he turns 26 in April. Numerous projection systems have that batting average crashing down to about .250 in 2019, but with the amount of hard contact he makes, and so long as he continues to not chase pitches as frequently as he did in 2017, the right-handed slugger should be able to keep his batting average north of .265.

If Chapman is able to average an exit velocity similar to Aaron Judge and Joey Gallo and company again in 2019, there is still plenty of home run potential in his 220-pound frame. While the launch angle fluctuated throughout the course of the year, and having half of his games away from the spacious confines of his home park, his propensity to frequently make hard contact will grant him a few home runs that wouldn’t leave the park for other players.

The young slugger has numerous statistics and peripheral metrics pointing towards a potential breakout in 2019.

Statistical Credits
fangraphs.com
baseballsavant.mlb.com
thebaseballcube.com