Kris Bryant ’s 2018 owners can blame an awkward head-first slide for a down statistical year from the slugging third baseman. He was never quite right and ended up being limited to just 102 games in 2018. In fact, it was the first time in his career that he failed to play in at least 151 games, a pretty remarkable feat to say the least. Bryant played through the injury for quite some time, and upon returning from the disabled list for the first time in the middle of July, it wasn’t more than about two weeks before he was back on the disabled list. In the opening months of the season, things were okay, relatively status quo, but June and July, aka the peak injury session of his 2018 season, things surely went awry. See for yourself in these graphs below, courtesy of Baseball Savant.

Let’s start with the first graph, dealing with Bryant’s exit velocity. Through his first two months of the season, he had an average exit velocity of 88.4 miles per hour. However, in the months following, his best month was June, but that was only an average of 84.5 miles per hour. Yikes. Steep drop off right there. Eight of his 13 home runs came in the first two months of the season.

Secondly, his hard hit percentage plummeted in July, and the two primary summer months were his lowest of the season. After exceeding 35 percent in the first two months of the season, he jumped back up closer to 30 percent in the final month of the season. His hard hit percentage of the year was still significantly below other seasons, and marks the third straight season of a decline for Bryant, but after taking time this offseason to rest the ailing shoulder, Bryant’s hard hit rate should be closer to his 2016 and 2017 marks.

Alright, let’s talk launch angle, folks.

That’s a sizable distribution of baseballs hit at a zero degree launch angle. There was still a sizable distribution around 20 degrees, but the key in 2019 will be to continue making solid contact and driving the baseball up and out into the power alleys. Will he return to the near 40 home run guy he was a few years back? Maybe not, but he’s a shoe-in for at least 25 bombs in any given season, health willing of course.

The unfortunate injury in 2018 has created a buying opportunity in 2019. While the power numbers didn’t quite return following the injury, many of the graphs above showcase how things were on the up and up for Bryant near the end of the season. While we couldn’t expect the power to return to its normal capacity, it was encouraging to see relevant home run pulse points increase near the end of the year, including but not limited to launch angle, exit velocity and hard hit percentage.

His HR/FB ratio plummeted to 11.2 percent last season, well below his prior seasons of 15.8 percent, 18.8 percent and 16.0 percent. If you take his fly ball rate last year and project it over the course of 155 games, given a normal year in terms of HR/FB ratio – which, is 16 percent in Bryant’s case—you are looking at a season total of 28 round-trippers. That total would be right in line with prior seasons and of course, there’s always room for some upside!

Lastly, while the power has depreciated a bit since that 2016 season, Bryant is making strides at the plate and it can be seen in terms of his decreasing strikeout rate, and improvements in terms of contact percentage and contact made out of the zone.

After registering a contact rate of 66 percent in 2015, Bryant upped that mark to 73.3 percent the following season, but the gradual improvements continued, as Bryant has surpassed 75 percent in each of the past two seasons. Furthermore, his chase rate has remained about the same for the most part, but a steep drop in swinging strike rate, as well as increased contact rates, have allowed Bryant to eat into that massive strikeout percentage from his rookie season. Since posting a 30.6 strikeout percentage back in 2015, Bryant has gotten it around 22 to 23 percent recently, and as low as 19.2 percent back in 2017, arguably his last full season with good health.

The injury in 2018 presents an excellent buying opportunity for a guy with 30+ home run and 100 RBI potential in 2019.

Statistical Credits
Fangraphs.com
BrooksBaseball.net
thebaseballcube.com
baseballsavant.mlb