2019 MLB Draft Guide Player Profile: Gerrit Cole

Gerrit Cole had a phenomenal 2015 season with the Pirates, going 19-8 with a 2.60 ERA and 1.09 WHIP across 208 innings on the mound. The next few years were less than ideal, and eventually a change of scenery was the best outcome for the right-hander. Pittsburgh sent Cole to Houston for a bunch of prospects and the return for the Astros was immediate.

Cole placed himself in the Cy Young conversation last season, as he went 15-5 with a 2.88 ERA and posted career bests in WHIP (1.03), K/9 (12.40), strikeout percentage (34.5%), batting average against (.196) and Wins Above Replacement (6.3). Many naysayers will believe that last year’s overall production was a fluke, or that Cole is an obvious regression candidate in 2019. Sure, it’s plausible, as his second half numbers were noticeably down compared to his excellent first half of the season.

By no means was his second half bad, as his K/9 was very similar to his first half, and in fact, he cut back on his walks by a large margin, which is enticing. Another year in the Houston system should benefit Cole, and his supporting cast in Houston is far better than the cast around him during his tenure in Pittsburgh.

In his final year with Pittsburgh, Cole was fastball dominant, but mixed in other pitches at a similar clip, primarily a slider, sinker and curve. He sprinkled in a changeup as well, but the usage on his pitches changed when he got to Houston. Compare his usage rates between 2017 and 2018.

From 2015 to 2017, Cole’s usage of five pitches in his arsenal didn’t lend itself to the Cy Young like results we saw in 2018. His 2015 was very good, but the results weren’t repeatable in the following two seasons. Opponents hit .250 or higher against all of his pitches except his slider, which came in at .228. Last season, opponents hit .229 against his curve, and that was the pitch the opposition registered the highest batting average against.

Houston’s mindset, at least for most of its pitchers, is to live off the fastball, and then let the junk come in afterwards. Cole hardly used his sinker and change up, instead choosing to pump the fastball and then let the opposition decipher between the slider and the curveball. It’s hard to argue against the results.

Cole’s strikeout rate jumped immensely, and many thought it had a chance to jump a bit as the park lends itself to some strikeouts. The changes to his pitch usage helped this, as did the fact that he got opponents to chase out of the zone at a career high rate. Furthermore to this point, his swing-and-miss percentage (14.1%) was far and away the best mark of his career.

The AL West boasts some weaker offenses, sure, but Cole dominated everybody to say the least. The dip in his ground ball rate was a bit surprising, as was the fact that he generated less soft contact than years prior. He wasn’t bit by the home run bug last season, but he could be in line for some regression in that department in 2019, as a fly ball rate of over 42 percent and a HR/FB rate of 10.0 doesn’t quite correlate to another season with a 0.85 HR/9 mark. It won’t be like his 1.37 mark of 2017, but that mark should creep closer to 1.00 this season.

Steamer projects some regression in 2019 for Cole, to the tune of a 14-9 record with a 3.48 ERA in just under 200 innings of work. A big key to a repeatable season for Cole will be to keep that strikeout rate near 12.00 K/9, as well as a ground ball rate that gets closer to 40 percent. Trade some of those fly balls for ground balls and Cole could certainly repeat his 2018 numbers, en route to another top-15 fantasy finish.

Statistical Credits

Fangraphs.com, BrooksBaseball.net, thebaseballcube.com