Gleyber Torres' walk-off highlights this week’s Week That Was.
Gleyber Torres: Torres hit a 3-run walk off jack Sunday to lead the Yankees to their 15th win in 16 games. Does it give this Yankee fan great joy to write that? Yes. My point however, is to focus on Torres, a 21 year old who plays nothing like a 21 year old. Forget the hype. Forget the pre-season adulation. Focus instead on what your eyes see and what the metrics say. The eye test says Torres looks like he belongs. Plain and simple. Just watch the way he approaches his at-bats and the way he plays the field. He knows he belongs and you will too if you actually watch him. As to the stats. Well, so far, the kid is hitting a cool .327 with two dingers, 7 runs, 11 RBI and a swipe in just 52 AB -- pretty darn good. The advanced metrics back up those numbers. He has maintained his strong minor league contact rate and is not chasing balls outside the zone. So, what do you do with this information? Well, call up the Torres owner in your league and try to convince him or her that the hype train is off the rails knowing that it is not. Torres will be on many a winning roto team in 2018. Will yours be one of those?
Andrew Benintendi: Benintendi took the collar Sunday going 0-5 in Boston’s win over Texas. On the year, the Boston OF has been, well, disappointing. Going into week 7 of the season, “Benny” (my name for him in this column only) is hitting only .233 with just one dinger. Yikes. However, the news is not all bad. First, because the Sox are a very good team, Benny is scoring (20) and knocking in (16) runs. Second, he is taking his walks such that despite the weak average, the OBP remains at a respectable .333. Third, the K rate is down and the contact rate up from last year. Fourth, he is actually hitting more line drives than last year. Bottom line, Team Colton & the Wolfman own multiple shares of Benny and plan to hold. You should too. If you are in one of my leagues and want to sell below draft day value, give me a call because we are buying!
Trevor Cahill: Cahill was dealing Saturday night. The Oakland hurler tossed 6 shutout innings, giving up just 4 hits and one walk while mowing down 12. On the year, Cahill has thrown 24 innings, struck out 31 batters and posted pretty ratios: 2.25 ERA; 0.96 WHIP. Can he stay healthy? I do not know. Will he continue to succeed while on the mound? I think so and the advanced metrics say so. Specifically, the 60% ground ball rate and 16% swinging strike rate say so. Oh, and the xFIP being basically identical to the ERA says there is no regression coming. I believe (though in all honesty, I am struggling with whether to roll with Cahill against the red hot Yankees in the upcoming week).
Trevor Bauer: Bauer was the hard luck loser Saturday as the Yankees beat the Indians. Bauer did his part tossing six innings, giving up just 2 ER and 2 hits while striking out 8. The big question coming into the season was weather the real Bauer was the guy we saw in the second half of 2017 who rocked or the guy we saw before that who got rocked. It is the former. Bauer has a 2.53 ERA, 1.06 WHIP and is striking out 10.5 batters per nine innings. The advance metrics show improvement in GB, SWK and FPK over 2017 so there is further support that the real Bauer is the good one we are seeing now. Yes, by all accounts, he is an odd duck. Yeah, and? This guy can pitch and that is all you should care about as you chase your roto dreams.
Kyle Gibson : Last week we wrote “Just when many a fantasy leaguer benched him for his start in Yankee Stadium, Gibson went out and was brilliant. The Twins righty twirled 6 shutout innings giving up just one hit while striking out 10 (of course, it was not his fault the bullpen imploded on him later but I digress). It may only be slight hyperbole to say that Gibson is one of the most polarizing figures in fantasy baseball. Half the pundits say “heck no, I will not fall for that again.” The other half look at the advanced metrics, prior success and strong second half of 2017 to say “I will not let my emotions keep me away from a potentially very good pitcher.” While I am in the group that mistakenly benched Gibson this week, I am also in the group that believes in him and will advocate for him here. Rick Wolf and I rostered Gibson this pre-season on the strength of his second half of 2017: 11% swinging strike rate; 61% first pitch strike rate; and a slider that was filthy over his last 8 starts. This year, he has three pitches that boast a 20%+ swinging strike rate according to our friends at fangraphs (the curve, change and slider). That bodes very well for a good season – especially one in which he gets a lot of the lowly Royals, White Sox and Tigers. I am buying.” Well, if you started Gibson on Sunday, you were glad you did. I will take 6.2 IP with 8K and a WHIP under 1.00 for the outing (the 3 runs in 6.2 could be better of course, but I digress). Buy while you still can.
And now, the moment you have been waiting for -- Schultz says: “The early months of every roto-season are typically volatile. An early to mid-April grand slam or 15-K shutout can often result in a 10-15 point immediate shift in the standings that often course-corrects within hours. By May though, the stats have somewhat settled, the cream has risen to the top and the dead weight has sunk to the bottom. It's also the time of the season when roto-owners are gloating about their genius or brooding over how things seem to be going seriously wrong. Schultz says often that roto-owners are too quick to bail on a season and seem to relish the thought of dumping and building for the next season. It seems to Schultz that some of the owner love dumping so much that they do it year after year after year.
There's an old adage that you can't win a pennant in April but you can sure lose one. While this somewhat translates into the roto-context, it shouldn't be the basis for planning ahead for 2019 in early May. If you are truly worried about whether your team doesn't have what it takes to contend in 2018, it’s a good idea to take stock as why your team is underperforming. If you are relying on big numbers from Miguel Sano , Anthony Rendón and Byron Buxton , it should be no surprise that your team is struggling as they have spent a tremendous portion of the season watching from the sidelines. However, should you being counting on Yu Darvish pitching like an ace who can anchor your rotation, it may be cause for concern.
A nice self-critical analysis of your struggling team should involve looking at each player on your roster and asking yourself if this is what you expected. Did I expect Ian Desmond to hit .177? Do I think he'll continue to do so? If the answer to the first question is yes, then, huh, what were you thinking??? If the answer to the second question is yes, act accordingly.”
Response: Yeah, what he said! [Note – do I remind Schultz the Indians fan what happened this weekend in the Bronx? Nah, that would just be mean right?]