Top KenPom Projected Team Totals

  1. Duke – 76
  2. Arkansas – 72
  3. Houston – 65
  4. Villanova – 63




Top Guards

JD NotaeARKDUKE760035.24850032.49
Notae should be popular in cash on this small slate as Arkansas’ offensive playmaker in a high total matchup vs. Duke’s below-average defense. In his high-usage and heavy shot volume role, Notae has scored 17, 18 and 21 points in the first three Tournament games and put up 31, 41 and 46 DK. Look for him to keep it going as he anchors the Razorbacks’ offense.
Kyler EdwardsUHVU750029.86760027.33
Edwards is anchoring Houston right now with 25, 15 and 19 points scored in the last three games and 44, 34 and 33 DK in those outings. He’s now averaging a stat-stuffing 33 DK over the past ten contests and should do something similar tonight. You can safely play him in cash lineups even in a low-total matchup vs. Nova.
Justin MooreVUUH600027.78590025.62
Moore is too cheap on both sites for how talented he is and the higher-usage role in Villanova’s offense. The numbers haven’t always been there lately, but he was better against Michigan last game with 15 points and 27 DK. This is a guy who regularly cracked 30 DFS points this season as the co-headliner with Collin Gillespie. There’s no reason for him to be this low priced.

Other Top Guards:

  • Collin Gillespie – Villanova ($6,900 DK / $6,200 FD)
  • Jamal Shead – Houston ($6,500 DK / $6,700 FD)


Value Guards

Jeremy RoachDUKEARK540017.82540016.42
Even with all the other talent Duke has, Roach might be the biggest reason why Coach K’s final season is still going. After taking a backseat most of this season, the point guard has stepped it up with double-digit points scored in all three Tournament games and 15 points apiece in the last two. He has 24, 23 and 27 DK in the last three outings and should put up similar numbers in a pace-boost vs. Arkansas. Expect him to be chalky in cash at only $5400 on both sites.
Au'Diese ToneyARKDUKE480020.68510019.13
Finding cheap avenues to the Arkansas-Duke matchup is key on this slate. The Razorbacks have a few value options, and Toney is pretty affordable at around 5k on both sites. The senior plays basically all 40 minutes in the team’s tight rotation and he just went for 23 DK last game. Though he doesn’t have a big offensive role, Toney usually does just enough in ancillary stats to return value.
Ramon Walker Jr.UHVU30008.5539007.81
Sometimes you have to be different on these small slates to cash or win a GPP, and Ramon Walker is an interesting way to do just that. He’s the definition of boom-or-bust with 13, 14 and 23 DK in three of the last five games but less than a DFS point in the two other outings sandwiched in there. It’s obviously risky, but there’s upside at some dirt cheap prices.

Other Value Guards:

  • Caleb Daniels – Villanova ($5,600 DK / $5,000 FD)
  • Davonte Davis – Arkansas ($4,400 DK / $4,400 FD)


Top Forwards

Paolo BancheroDUKEARK810035.41830032.81
The possible No. 1 NBA Draft pick is playing like it in the NCAA Tournament. He has 43, 34 and 40 DK in the three games so far and has at least 17 points in each. Expect the stud-like production to continue in a pace-boost with his high usage and shot volume. It’ll be hard to fade Banchero in cash on this short slate.
Jaylin WilliamsARKDUKE720031.59780029.36
Despite dealing with Gonzaga’s frontcourt tandem last game, Williams still had 39 DK and a double-double. He’s now put up at least 28 DK and a double-double in all three Tournament games and will once again play a key role tonight as one of Arkansas’ best players. Though the matchup vs. Duke’s Banchero/Williams frontcourt is a tough one, he’s proven to be effective no matter the opponent.
Jermaine SamuelsVUUH620024.12660022.56
Samuels has turned his DFS and real-life production up a notch in the NCAA Tournament with 34, 30 and 39 DK over the last three games. He’s averaging 18 points and eight rebounds per game in the tourney and will be needed on both ends plenty tonight with Gillespie/Moore possibly struggling with Houston’s top-tier defense. The price tags are very affordable for a guy that’s putting up 30 DFS points regularly lately.

Other Top Forwards:

  • Mark Williams – Duke ($7,700 DK / $7,500 FD)
  • Fabian White Jr. – Houston ($6,300 DK / $5,500 FD)


Value Forwards

AJ GriffinDUKEARK520019.4500017.96
After injuring his ankle last weekend, Griffin was a question mark on Thursday but still put up 11 points and 24 DK in 37 minutes. The future NBA lottery pick is one of Duke’s best scorers and they’ll need him to play big minutes with a key role on both ends again. He’s pretty affordable on both sites for a guy that was in the high-6k and low-7k price range a month ago.
Trey WadeARKDUKE31009.1237008.38
Out of nowhere, Wade just went off for 15 points and 30 DK last game vs. Gonzaga. A repeat performance tonight would make him a smash value. It’s impossible to trust Wade, though, because he rarely cracks double-digit DFS points despite being a regular starter for Arkansas. At least they’ll need his size down low more tonight vs. Duke’s frontcourt – just like last game.

Other Value Forwards:

  • Josh Carlton – Houston ($5,300 DK / $4,900 FD)
  • Eric Dixon – Villanova ($5,100 DK / $4,800 FD)


DraftKings Core Plays

  • Paolo Banchero – Duke ($8,100)
  • JD Notae – Arkansas ($7,600)
  • Jeremy Roach – Duke ($5,400)


FanDuel Core Plays

  • Paolo Banchero – Duke ($8,300)
  • Kyler Edwards – Houston ($7,600)
  • Justin Moore – Villanova ($5,900)


Looking for more College Basketball or NCAA Tournament content? Check out the CBB PrizePicks Top Plays for tonight's Elite Eight March Madness action!