NCAA Tournament CBB DFS Playbook & Core Plays: March 18
Published: Mar 18, 2022
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Welcome to CBB DFS for the second full day of the NCAA Tournament! A couple of notes before we get into the playbook. DraftKings has an all-day slate spanning from the first 12:15 pm ET tip to the final evening game. DK also has three other smaller slates across the afternoon and evening. FanDuel does NOT have an all-day slate and instead broke it up between four different slates. This playbook will dive into every single game on Friday with all slates in mind.
Keep in mind that some of the game times on DraftKings or FanDuel are earlier than the game itself may start in this tournament setup. So, pay attention to when those games lock if making late lineup changes or pivots. Without further ado, let’s dive in!
THE SLATE (All times ET)
12:15pm - Loyola Chicago @ Ohio State (PK) - 133 O/U
12:40pm - Jacksonville St @ Auburn (-15) - 138 O/U
1:45pm - Montana St @ Texas Tech (-14.5) - 131.5 O/U
2pm - Yale @ Purdue (-16.0) - 144 O/U
2:45pm - Delaware @ Villanova (-15.5) - 133.5 O/U FD Only
3:10pm - Miami-FL @ USC (-2.0) - 139.5 O/U
4:15pm - Notre Dame @ Alabama (-4.0) - 152 O/U
4:30pm - Virginia Tech @ Texas (-1.0) - 123.5 O/U
6:50pm - Chattanooga @ Illinois (-8.0) - 135.5 O/U
7:10pm - Cal State-Fullerton @ Duke (-18.5) - 145.5 O/U
7:20pm - Iowa State @ LSU (-4.0) - 128.5 O/U
7:25pm - Wright State @ Arizona (-21.5) - 156.5 O/U
9:20pm - UAB @ Houston (-8.5) - 136 O/U
9:40pm - Davidson @Michigan State (-1.0) - 141 O/U
9:50pm - Colgate @ Wisconsin (-8.0) - 139.5 O/U
Note: Due to state regulations the Delaware/Villanova game is only on FanDuel.
TOP TEAM IMPLIED TOTALS
- Arizona - 89.00
- Duke - 82.00
- Purdue - 80.25
- Auburn - 76.50
- Villanova - 74.50
- Texas Tech - 73.25
- Illinois - 72.00
TOP GUARDS
Johnny Davis G/F (Wisconsin) Opp COLG ($8.6K DK/6.9K FD)
Davis' emergence as the Big Ten player of the year and a likely NBA lottery pick has been one of college basketball's biggest surprises this season. He has averaged 19.7 points and 8.2 rebounds to earn Associated Press All-America first-team honors and help Wisconsin win a share of the Big Ten title. The #10 ranked KenPom Player of the Year with 31.5% usage/shot should have no problems at all against the #202nd ranked defense of Colgate.
Malachi Smith (Chattanooga) Opp @IL ($6.0K DK/7.3K FD)
Smith is a star and can score like few others in college hoops. Nine times he’s scored 25+ points in a game and is the type of shooter that can be this seasons Max Abmas if they can upset Illinois. This is a veteran team led by Smith, the best SoCon player since Stephen Curry, who averages 20 points and 6 rebounds and shoots an effective 41.5% from three. He is a playmaker and can attack from any place on the floor, plus the Illini have trouble stopping big guards (Malakai Branham/Jaden Ivey).
Jordan Walker (UAB) Opp @UH ($7.4K/8.0K FD)
If Smith isn’t the most exciting mid-major on this slate, then Jelly Walker must be. Walker has all the firepower to compete against Houston if the game stays close due to his habit of big shots late in games. He has won everything there is to win in Conference USA - CUSA newcomer of the year, CUSA player of the year, and CUSA tournament MVP. Walker, who has more three-pointers than any other in the NCAA Tournament (115), is carrying an elite 33.25 usage and shot rate and is in play in all formats.
Other Top Guards
Bennedict Mathurin (ARIZ) $7.8K DK/7.2K FD *28% usage last five; fav GPP play
Kameron McGusty (MIA) $7.3K DK/6.9K FD
Drew Peterson (USC) $7K DK/6.8K FD
Malaki Branham (OSU) $6.7K DK/5.8K FD *28% usage/20 points per game in last five games
Charlie Moore (MIA) $7.0K DK/7.1K FD
Jahvon Quinerly (BAMA) $9.6K DK/4.8K FD *Favorite Alabama play
Justin Moore (VU) $5.7K FD *Top Guard play on FD
TOP VALUE GUARD
Tanner Holden G/F (Wright State) Opp @ARIZ ($5.8K DK/7.9K FD)
Holden is a 6’6” wing who leads Wright State in scoring with a 19.8 average and is second in rebounding at 7.1. He is coming off a monster 37-point, 11-rebound performance against Bryant in the play-in game, yet this guy who is carrying a 28.6% usage, 26.4% shot, and 24% combined rebound rate is still only $5.8K?
Matt Knowling G/F (Yale) Opp @PUR ($4.3K DK/4.7K FD)
Knowling’s presence in Yale’s starting lineup is the reason they are in the tournament, to begin with. He is highly efficient in the paint on offense for his size and makes winning plays on defense. The in-game impact he offers far outweighs his deceivingly low impact on the stat sheets even though he does have an offensive rating of 122.0 (7th in the Ivy League) and a 20% combined rebounding rate. Knowling should get at least 4X here against a Purdue defense that is not very good.
Other Value Guards
Trey Calvin (WRIGH) $5.2K DK/7.4K FD *24% shot rate; Calvin/Holden/Basile all in play for cash from Wright State
Justin Kier (ARIZ) $5.1K DK/4.8K FD *If Kerr Kriisa is out again, he is a top value and cash play
Nelly Cummings (COLG) $4.8K DK/5.4K FD
Bez Mbeng (YALE) $4K DK/6.2K FD *3X-8X making him GPP only
TOP FORWARDS
Kofi Cockburn (Illinois) Opp CHAT ($9.1K DK/8.6K FD)
A smash spot today for Kofi. The big man is the heart and soul of the Illinois program averaging 21 points and 10.6 rebounds while drawing more fouls per minute than all but five players nationally. Today, he faces Chattanooga and their big man Silvio De Sousa who is committing fouls at a rate of 5.7 per 40 so Kofi will have free reign inside for most of the game. Top high-priced play in all formats today.
Isaiah Mobley (USC) Opp MIA ($8K DK/6.9K FD)
The Trojans like to get inside and dominate the paint and the glass behind star forward Mobley and Miami has one of the worst efficiency defenses in the nation. USC is one of the best rebounding teams in the country and their size could certainly pose a problem for Miami who has an interior that we have been picking on all season. With a 26.5% combined rebound and 2.8% block rate Mobley will eat today as the Hurricanes come into the game with the 310th ranked offensive rebounding (23.4%) and 268th defensive rebounding team (30.3%) in the nation without any real threat to USC’s inside.
Paul Atkinson (Notre Dame) Opp @BAMA ($6.4K DK/5.1K FD)
Atkinson had talked openly about how couldn’t wait to get back on the floor after feeling like he let the Irish down in their Atlantic Coast Conference tournament quarterfinal loss to Virginia Tech last week. He wanted to set an early tone and be a force. He did and he was as he led the Irish with 16 points in the first half (27 total) and allowed Notre Dame to establish itself inside. Today he gets a high tempo Alabama team that cannot rebound (279th in defensive boards- 30.7%). Solid price here for Atkinson and his 29.9% rebound rate and can be used in both cash and GPPs.
Other Top Forwards
Walker Kessler (AUB) $8.8K DK/7.9K FD *20% shot/rebound rate; elite blocking
Jabari Smith (AUB) $8.6K/8.2K FD FD
Christian Koloko (ARIZ) $7.5K DK/6.0K FD *We want pieces of ARIZ in a smash spot
Azuolas Tubelis (ARIZ) $7.1K DK/6.7K FD *We want pieces of ARIZ in a smash spot
Fabian White (UH) $7K DK/6.5K FD *Way too cheap and a main cash-type play; 21.7% shot rate
Grant Basile (WRIGH) $6.2K DK/7.8K FD *How many Wright State is too many? Holden/Calvin/Basile eat up 80% of the usage
TOP VALUE FORWARD
Ryan Moffatt G/F (Colgate) Opp @WISC ($3.7K DK/4.3K FD)
Ryan Moffatt’s appeal comes directly from his three-point shooting ability. He is hitting almost 45% of his threes (3oth in the nation) for a Colgate team that is second in the country in three-point percentage. He is playing 30+ minutes at dirt minimum price for an efficient Colgate offense. With a floor of 13 and a ceiling of 25, Moffatt will be in play as a strong put against an ordinary Wisconsin defense.
Other Forward Values
Silvio De Sousa (CHATT) $5K DK/5.6K FD
EJ Jarvis (YALE) $3.3K DK/4.0K FD
DRAFTKINGS CORE
- Kofi Cockburn (Illinois)
- Malachi Smith (Chattanooga)
- Tanner Holden (Wright State)
FANDUEL CORE
- Walker Kessler (Auburn)
- Justin Moore (Villanova)
- Paul Arkinson (Notre Dame)