CBB DFS Playbook & Core Plays: January 6

Dan Servodidio

@dan_servodidio

College Basketball DFS Playbook

Published: Jan 06, 2022

THE SLATE (Odds & Totals via DraftKings Sportsbook)

7 pm ET – Ohio State at Indiana (-3.5) -- 140.5 O/U
7 pm ET – Maryland at Illinois (-11) -- 139.5 O/U
7:30 pm ET – Long Beach State at UCLA (-26.5) -- 143 O/U (DK Only)
8 pm ET – UAB at North Texas (-2) -- 126 O/U (DK Only)
8 pm ET – Middle Tennessee at Rice (-4.5) -- 149 O/U (DK Only)
8 pm ET – Southern Miss at UTSA (-3.5) -- 134 O/U (DK Only)
9 pm ET – Iowa at Wisconsin (-3) -- 147 O/U
9 pm ET – Washington State at Colorado (-1.5) -- 130 O/U
9:30 pm ET – SMU at Cincinnati (-2.5) -- 143.5 O/U
9:30 pm ET – Washington at Utah (-9.5) -- 148 O/U
10 pm ET – Louisiana Tech (-3.5) at UTEP -- 138.5 O/U (DK Only)
11 pm ET – USC (-5.5) at California -- 129.5 O/U

Top KenPom Projected Team Totals

UCLA – 87
Rice – 79
Utah – 77
Illinois – 76
Wisconsin – 76
Middle Tennessee – 75
Iowa – 74
Indiana – 71
Louisiana Tech – 71
Ohio State – 70
Cincinnati – 70

Top Guards

Player	Team	Opp.	DK $	DK FPPG	FD $	FD FPPG
Kendric Davis	SMU	CINCY	9500	39.27	8400	36.45
Davis has been a stud for SMU for years and he’s continuing the top-tier play this season with per-game averages of 21.5 points, 5.4 assists, 4.9 rebounds and 1.9 steals. He can score around the rim, from three-point range or in the float game and is basically matchup-proof - even on the road here at Cincinnati. The price tags are high, but he’s a top play overall on this slate in any format.
Johnny Davis	WISC	IOWA	9000	39.91	8600	37.55
Wisconsin’s breakout star is having an All-American type of season and is now appropriately priced up after he just dropped 68 DK and 37 real points on the road at Purdue last time out. Since Davis is far and away the top offensive option for the Badgers - while averaging 7.3 RPG too - his DFS floor is pretty safe. Now he gets a pace-boost matchup vs. Iowa? Expect Davis to be a popular cash play tonight.
Johnny Juzang	UCLA	LBS	7800	27.28
With UCLA on the DK slate, all the Bruins’ starters are in play. However, be wary and limit to GPPs because this will surely be a blowout win with UCLA being 25+ point favorites. Plus, the team hasn’t played in nearly a month and there could be some rust. Even still, Juzang has the talent to put up 30+ DK points in any given game and he really shouldn’t be $1000 less than Jaquez - and he’ll be a contrarian play to the other studs in action.
Souley Boum	UTEP	LT	7700	30.92
One of the DK matchups features UTEP playing in a late-night hammer, which makes Boum an interesting option at likely lower rostership than Johnny Davis or the other studs in action tonight. With Keonte Kennedy out right now, a large majority of the UTEP offense falls on Boum. He already has 30% usage and shot rates, but his DFS floor is much safer. In the first game without Kennedy, he had 20 points and 32 DK.

Other Top Guards to Consider:

Jaime Jaquez Jr. – UCLA ($8,800 DK Only)
Terrell Brown Jr. – Washington ($8,700 DK / $8,000 FD)
Amorie Archibald – Louisiana Tech ($8,400 DK Only)
Alfonso Plummer – Illinois ($6,200 DK / $5,600 FD)

Value Guards

Player	Team	Opp.	DK $	DK FPPG	FD $	FD FPPG
Tyrell Roberts	WSU	COL	4500	15.06	3900	13.51
Roberts’ game logs are all over the place and he’s a bit boom-or-bust, but the potential for 4x or 5x return is there. Roberts is Washington State’s second-best player behind Noah Williams as he’s second on the team in shots share and usage rate while logging 25-30 minutes per game. His ancillary stat production isn’t great, but he can get hot and be a salary-saver in GPPs.
Ethan Anderson	USC	CAL	4400	14.06	4700	12.98
Anderson has been bouncing in and out of the Trojans’ starting lineup, but there’s a decent chance he gets the starting nod for the seventh time in 12 games tonight because Max Agbonkpolo recently had COVID - which triggered the program’s shutdown these last couple weeks. Who knows if or how much Agbonkpolo plays, but Anderson should do enough to return value if he's starting. He had 21 DK in 32 minutes last game with his teammate out.
Donovan Sims	MTSU	RICE	3900	20.48
Considering the high total of this game with two uptempo teams facing off, a lot of the Middle Tennessee players are too cheap on the DK slate. Sims, in particular, is very mispriced since he’s the team’s starting senior point guard with a healthy 24% usage rate and 26% shots share. His game log is a bit up-and-down, but he can easily put up 20-30 DK or more in this high-scoring environment to smash value.
Rubin Jones	UNT	UAB	3800	18.7
Despite the low total, most of the North Texas starters are cheap enough to consider on the DK slate because of the major pace-boost matchup against UAB and the tight rotation that they utilize. Specifically, Jones is a nice bargain since he has 20+ DK in five of the last six games while normally playing 30+ minutes. We’ll take that all day at a sub-4k price tag.
Malaki Branham	OSU	IU	3700	16.68	5500	15.11
Even after exploding for 35 real points and 47 DK last time out, Branham is still priced below 4k on DK and looks like a nice value there. He’s still cheap on FD to consider too. The freshman has been inconsistent for DFS and real life this season, but maybe that latest performance is an indication of Branham becoming a bigger playmaker for the Buckeyes.

Other Value Guards to Consider:

Cobe Williams – Louisiana Tech ($5,500 DK Only)
Jamari Wheeler – Ohio State ($5,200 DK / $5,600 FD)
Keeshawn Barthelemy – Colorado ($5,200 DK / $4,900 FD)
Chucky Hepburn – Wisconsin ($4,700 DK / $4,700 FD)
Eli Lawrence – Middle Tennessee ($4,200 DK Only)

Top Forwards

Player	Team	Opp.	DK $	DK FPPG	FD $	FD FPPG
Trayce Jackson-Davis	IU	OSU	9900	39.6	8300	37.84
There are a ton of top-tier forwards in action tonight and choosing between them may come down to the pricing and which site you’re on. Jackson-Davis is a better FD play considering his price discount compared to DK, where’s more of a GPP option. Either way, expect the Indiana center to do his thing at home as the team’s go-to offensive option who can post a 20-point double-double and 40+ DFS points any time out.
Keegan Murray	IOWA	WISC	9600	44.65	8500	42.55
As soon as you think Murray might hit some negative regression, the Iowa breakout player goes out and scores 35 points with another 50+ DFS points like he did earlier this week vs. Maryland. He’s now posted 50 DK or more in three of the last four games with heavy offensive usage for the Hawkeyes. He’s about as good as it gets for cash and has shown the GPP upside to be the slate’s highest-scoring player. Wisconsin’s frontcourt may slow him down a bit tonight, but the high usage and volume keeps him firmly in play.
Kofi Cockburn	IL	UMD	9300	43.42	8700	40.48
Cockburn should have his way down low against a Maryland frontcourt that features a foul-prone Qudus Wahab and then smaller bigs regardless. This matchup just gave up a slate-breaking performance to Keegan Murray and Cockburn could do the same with his heavy usage in Illinois’ offense. Considering the price tags (as mentioned above with Jackson-Davis), it’s Cockburn who may end up the better and more popular DK cash play compared to TJD and Murray.
Kenneth Lofton Jr.	LT	UTEP	8700	36.12
If you’re looking for a contrarian pivot among the top-tier forwards tonight (on DK), then Lofton is your guy and he’ll cost a bit less for possible better DFS production. The Louisiana Tech center has the post talent and rebounding ability to post 40+ DK points and a 20-point double-double in any given game and the UTEP frontcourt doesn’t pose much of a threat.

Other Top Forwards to Consider:

E.J. Liddell – Ohio State ($9,800 DK / $8,200 FD)
Isaiah Mobley – USC ($9,200 DK / $7,900 FD)
Branden Carlson – Utah ($7,300 DK / $7,100 FD)
Race Thompson – Indiana ($6,900 DK / $6,900 FD)
Jacob Grandison – Illinois ($6,100 DK / $7,200 FD)

Value Forwards

Player	Team	Opp.	DK $	DK FPPG	FD $	FD FPPG
Emmitt Matthews Jr.	UW	UTAH	5200	19.66	5300	17.91
Matthews was a value for us earlier this week and he promptly provided 24 DK and 16 points scored. Even with this price increase, the guy is still a nice bargain as arguably Washington’s best player not named Terrell Brown. Getting 20+ DFS points or more is always a possibility with Matthews as he logs 30+ minutes per game while possibly seeing a larger offensive role moving forward.
Zed Key	OSU	IU	5000	20.41	6700	19.65
Key is more of a value on DK with a notable $1700 discount compared to FD. The Buckeyes’ big man is looking more comfortable while playing alongside E.J. Liddell in the frontcourt and he’s now even more important with Kyle Young sidelined. He’s coming off an impressive 29 DK performance last time out that included 14 rebounds vs. Nebraska - and OSU will need his size down low to contend with both Trayce Jackson-Davis and Race Thompson.
DeAndre Dishman	MTSU	RICE	4400	18.17
As mentioned above with Donovan Sims, here’s another cheap Middle Tennessee player in a high-total matchup for the DK slate. At 6-foot-6 and 235 pounds, Dishman is the center in the team’s smaller lineup and he’s usually able to do just enough as a rebounder and scorer to return 15-20 DK points or more. The floor is usually safe and there’s upside for more in this uptempo matchup.
John Newman III	CINCY	SMU	4100	16.9	4800	15.44
Newman is still too cheap on both sites and remains a solid cash value as long as he’s in the 4-5k range. Though he isn’t heavily involved offensively, the senior is still a regular starter who does just enough with ancillary stats in 25-30 minutes to put up 20 DK or so nearly every game. It’s not a flashy play by any means, but the value is nice in cash.
Jorell Saterfield	UTEP	LT	4000	13.62
Saterfield stepped into more playing time and a bigger role last game with Keonte Kennedy out - and that should be the case again tonight. Even though he came off the bench, the winger put up 20 DK in 30 minutes without Kennedy last game and he now has 17+ DK in five straight games while seeing more playing time over the past month. It makes him a very good value on this slate at the cheap 4k price.

Other Value Forwards to Consider:

Julian Reese – Maryland ($4,800 DK / $4,400 FD)
Tristan da Silva – Colorado ($4,400 DK / $4,700 FD)
Efe Abogidi – Washington State ($3,900 DK / $5,300 FD)

DraftKings Core Plays

Johnny Davis – Wisconsin ($9,000)
Kofi Cockburn – Illinois ($9,300)
Donovan Sims – Middle Tennessee ($3,900)

FanDuel Core Plays

Johnny Davis – Wisconsin ($8,600)
Kendric Davis – SMU ($8,400)
Trayce Jackson-Davis – Indiana ($8,300)