CBB DFS Playbook & Core Plays: January 25

Dan Servodidio

@dan_servodidio

College Basketball DFS Playbook

Published: Jan 25, 2022

THE SLATE (Odds & Totals via DraftKings Sportsbook)

6:30 pm ET -- Alabama (-14.5) at Georgia -- 158 O/U (DK Only)
7 pm ET -- Michigan State at Illinois (-4.5) --142 O/U
7 pm ET -- Clemson at Duke (-11.5) -- 145.5 O/U
7 pm ET -- DePaul at Villanova (-17.5) -- 133 O/U
8 pm ET -- Maryland at Rutgers (-3.5) -- 132.5 O/U (DK Only)
8 pm ET -- Syracuse (-4) at Pittsburgh -- 137.5 O/U (FD Only)
8 pm ET -- Kansas State at Baylor (-14) -- 137 O/U
8:30 pm ET -- Auburn (-13) at Missouri -- 141.5 O/U
9 pm ET -- Texas (-2.5) at TCU -- 122.5 O/U
9 pm ET -- Mississippi State at Kentucky (-9) -- 142.5 O/U
10 pm ET -- Colorado at Oregon (-8) -- 136.5 O/U
11 pm ET -- Arizona (-3) at UCLA -- 151 O/U

Top KenPom Projected Team Totals

Alabama – 88
Kentucky – 79
Duke – 79
Auburn – 78
Arizona – 77
Villanova – 76
Baylor – 75
UCLA – 75
Illinois – 75
Syracuse – 73
Georgia – 73
Oregon – 72

Injuries to Know:

Kofi Cockburn, Illinois -- QUESTIONABLE (concussion)
TyTy Washington Jr., Kentucky -- QUESTIONABLE (ankle)
Javon Freeman-Liberty, DePaul – OUT (groin)
Azuolas Tubelis, Arizona -- QUESTIONABLE (ankle)
Jeremy Sochan, Baylor -- QUESTIONABLE (ankle)
Trevor Keels, Duke -- DOUBTFUL (lower leg)

Top Guards

Player	Team	Opp.	DK $	DK FPPG	FD $	FD FPPG
Wendell Green Jr.	AUB	MIZZ	8400	28.34	7400	25.92
Even though Auburn should win comfortably over Missouri, hopefully it’s close enough throughout for the studs to still be great plays. Green will be looking to bounce back from his 20 DK effort va. Kentucky over the weekend. He had 41, 33 and 36 DK over the previous three games and boasts a solid DFS floor running the point with high usage. The FD price differential is especially attractive.
Johnny Juzang	UCLA	ARIZ	8300	29.08	8200	27.03
In a back-and-forth, pace-boost matchup vs. Arizona with a high-total environment, Juzang is in line for another good game at home here. He’s scored 23+ real points and 35+ DK in four straight entering tonight as UCLA’s go-to offensive option. That shouldn’t change tonight with his consistently active shot volume. It's an ideal stud anchor in cash or GPP as the late-night hammer.
Jahvon Quinerly	BAMA	UGA	7600	27
On the DK slate, we have all the Alabama guards in play for this high-total matchup vs. Georgia’s poor defense. Both Jaden Shackelford and Keon Ellis are solid options, but Quinerly is a bit cheaper and has a slightly higher floor. He’s found himself in a new super-sub role the last two games as the Tide’s high-usage sixth-man who still logs starter-level minutes. Quinerly may be more comfortable in this role that he held for most of last year too. He had 35 DK last game and could easily do the same tonight.
Justin Moore	VU	DPU	7200	29.02	7200	26.85
If Villanova is on the slate, then the backcourt duo of Collin Gillespie and Justin Moore are firmly in play for cash. Not only does the majority of Nova’s offense run through them, but they get a nice pace-boost at home tonight vs. DePaul. Moore is the better per-dollar option of the two as he’s put up 31+ DK in five of the last six - including 21 points and 36 DK vs. DePaul in the first meeting.
Bennedict Mathurin	ARIZ	UCLA	7000	31.28	7500	28.65
It’s weird to see Mathurin priced below 8k on both sites tonight - and it could make him pretty popular in all formats. Even though he’s prone to the 20-30 DK efforts, the DFS ceiling for Mathurin is in the 40-50 DK range when he’s at his best. While he’s better suited for GPPs, the cheaper price tag is hard to ignore in a high-scoring matchup vs. UCLA where Mathurin will be motivated to show out on the national stage. He’s averaging 22 PPG and 36 DK on the road this season, FWIW.

Other Top Guards:

Jaden Shackelford -- Alabama ($8,000 DK Only)
Collin Gillespie -- Villanova ($7,800 DK / $7,000 FD)
Will Richardson -- Oregon ($7,500 DK / $7,900 FD)
Buddy Boeheim -- Syracuse ($7,800 FD Only)

Value Guards

Player	Team	Opp.	DK $	DK FPPG	FD $	FD FPPG
Joseph Girard III	SYR	PITT			5500	23.97
On the FD slate, the Syracuse starters are all solid plays due to their extremely short rotation. Girard especially should provide a solid DFS floor as he’ll be taking on nearly every point guard minute with Symir Torrence out tonight. There’s upside too with his team-leading 43% three-point rate.
Paul Mulcahy	RU	UMD	5100	21.88
Over on the DK slate, nearly all of the Rutgers players are underpriced and Mulcahy himself is a very good vash value. He really shouldn’t be this cheap considering he regularly plays 30+ minutes, leads the team in assist rate and has put up 22+ DK in seven of the last eight games - including 30 DK vs. Maryland in the prior matchup. Geo Baker and Caleb McConnell are also solid values from Rutgers.
Jalen Terry	DPU	VU	4900	16.43	5400	14.58
If Jalen Coleman-Lands is out again tonight, then Terry is a very good value. He’s already been playing a big role off the bench for DePaul, but a safer floor of offensive usage and role is in store for Terry if his teammate is sidelined. Terry has started the last two games with Coleman-Lands out and he’s put up 24 DK in both. Though a matchup on the road at Villanova is tough, the increase in opportunity makes him a good value.
Jeremy Roach	DUKE	CLEM	4100	18.76	4800	17.44
With Trevor Keels out, Roach re-entered Duke’s starting lineup last game and should do so again tonight with Keels doubtful. In that start, Roach put up 23 DK in 28 minutes as his DFS floor was instantly increased with more offensive usage and playing time. He’s a solid cash value on both sites tonight and that cheap DK price tag will be chalky.
Davion Mintz	UK	MSST	4100	15.73	4600	14.26
Kentucky has two notable injury situations to monitor with both TyTy Washington and Sahvir Wheeler as question marks. If one or both are out tonight, then Mintz would step into a larger role in UK’s backcourt. The Creighton transfer is already playing 20-30 minutes off the bench, but he did start one game earlier this season with Wheeler out. The DK price tag is especially attractive if he ends up starting.
Chase Hunter	CLEM	DUKE	3000	9.62	4400	9.02
After coming off the bench all season, Hunter moved into the starting lineup last game and put up 13 points, five rebounds, three assists and 26 DK in a season-high 31 minutes. We’ll take that all day at these cheap salaries - especially the min price on DK. The slight pace-boost and higher-scoring environment vs. Duke would help him return value again if he remains in the starting lineup.

Other Value Guards:

Geo Baker -- Rutgers ($5,700 DK Only)
Da’Monte Williams -- Illinois ($5,300 DK / $5,200 FD)
Kellan Grady -- Kentucky ($5,100 DK / $5,200 FD)
KJ Simpson -- Colorado ($4,300 DK / $4,800 FD)
Shakeel Moore -- Mississippi State ($4,100 DK / $5,600 FD)
Caleb McConnell -- Rutgers ($4,000 DK Only)
Pelle Larsson -- Arizona ($3,700 DK / $5,200 FD)

Top Forwards

Player	Team	Opp.	DK $	DK FPPG	FD $	FD FPPG
Oscar Tshiebwe	UK	MSST	9300	42.33	8800	39.77
Not much analysis needed for Tshiebwe at this point. The UK center is a double-double and 40-50 DK waiting to happen in any given game - even the last game on the road at Auburn in a tough frontcourt matchup. He should have his way in the paint tonight with Tolu Smith out for Mississippi State and may see increased offensive usage and shot volume if TyTy Washington and/or Sahvir Wheeler are out.
Paolo Banchero	DUKE	CLEM	9200	35.82	8700	33.42
The expensive forwards aren’t as strong as other slates, so expect Banchero to be pretty popular in cash because of his name/team recognition and consistent play of late. The eventual top-5 NBA pick has put up 42 and 47 DK over the past two games, 34+ DK in seven straight and averaging 18 PPG and 38 DK over the past ten. Expect another cash-worthy performance tonight.
Jesse Edwards	SYR	PITT			7700	28.37
On the FD slate, Edwards may go overlooked among the high-priced forwards because Tshiebwe and Banchero will be more popular. However, the Cuse center boasts a strong DFS floor/ceiling combo in a tight rotation with plenty of ancillary stats. He’s put up 30 FD or more in five of the last six including 31 FD vs. Pitt in the previous meeting.
Wendell Moore Jr.	DUKE	CLEM	7300	32.26	7600	29.84
It wasn’t too long ago we had Moore priced similarly to Banchero and it’s interesting to see him below 8k on both sites now. Moore is coming off a 39 DK effort over the weekend and can easily drop 35-40 DFS points in any given game with his talent and playmaking role for Duke’s explosive attack. Though he’s been underperforming for DFS lately, the GPP upside is still there - especially with added usage and shot volume now with Trevor Keels out.
Jabari Smith	AUB	MIZZ	7000	31.97	7200	29.45
It’s always a tough decision whether to play Walker Kessler, Jabari Smith or both when Auburn is on the slate. Smith, though, is weirdly priced down on both sites and this might be a season-low salary for him. That’s even with a 31 DK performance vs. Kentucky over the weekend. This is a nice buy-low opportunity on one of the top NBA prospects in the sport on one of the best college teams in the country.

Other Top Forwards:

Walker Kessler -- Auburn ($8,800 DK / $8,400 FD)
Christian Koloko -- Arizona ($7,800 DK / $8,000 FD)
PJ Hall -- Clemson ($7,200 DK / $6,400 FD)
Ron Harper Jr. -- Rutgers ($7,200 DK Only)

Value Forwards

Player	Team	Opp.	DK $	DK FPPG	FD $	FD FPPG
Braelen Bridges	UGA	BAMA	5900	22.57
Opposing big men have been giving Alabama trouble all season and it’s usually a great DFS matchup to target. Tonight, it’s Georgia big Braelan Bridges who should benefit. However, expect him to be a nice contrarian GPP play since he’s a bit more expensive than we’d like. Still, Bridges has 24+ DK in five of the last seven games and 18 DK in the two others - so at least he likely won’t burn you too much.
Brandon Johnson	DPU	VU	5100	22.82	5300	21.29
At just over 5k on both sites, Johnson is a really solid value for cash. He’s averaging 21 DK over the past ten games, put up 20 DK vs. Villanova earlier this season and is pretty much locked in to 30+ minutes with plenty of ancillary stats. Don’t expect much upside, but Johnson will give you 4x value or so if you’re looking in this range for floor points.
Malik Hall	MSU	IL	4700	19.25	5600	17.78
We mentioned Hall as a solid value last Friday and he responded with 32 DK vs. Wisconsin. Even though he comes off the bench, Hall is an integral part of Michigan State’s rotation and frontcourt depth. He can not only guard multiple positions on defense but is a legit three-point threat on offense - versatility that keeps him locked into playing time. He’s still pretty affordable on both sites, especially DK.
Oumar Ballo	ARIZ	UCLA	4700	16.13	5400	15.44
A key injury status to monitor tonight is that of Azuolas Tubelis, who sat out Saturday’s game with an ankle injury. If he’s out or limited at all tonight, then expect Ballo to take on a bigger role with increased playing time. The Gonzaga transfer put up 32 and 21 DK in the last two games with Tubelis hurt and would be a huge value at these prices if his teammate is out again.
Cameron Matthews	MSST	UK	4700	17.7	4100	15.93
Mississippi State will be without Tolu Smith at least for tonight and it’ll open up some value for this matchup vs. Kentucky. While Garrison Brooks and Javian Davis will step into bigger roles at the center spot, Matthews could actually re-enter the starting lineup now. The sophomore power forward started two games earlier this month with Smith out and he put up 33 and 31 DK in those starts.

Other Value Forwards:

N’Faly Dante -- Oregon ($5,200 DK / $6,000 FD)
Cody Riley -- UCLA ($4,400 DK / $4,400 FD)
Julian Reese -- Maryland ($3,700 DK Only)
Tre Mitchell -- Texas ($3,400 DK / $5,200 FD)
Javian Davis -- Mississippi State ($3,200 DK / $3,500 FD)
Noah Gurley -- Alabama ($3,100 DK Only)

DraftKings Core Plays

Bennedict Mathurin – Arizona ($7,000)
Justin Moore – Villanova ($7,200)
Jeremy Roach – Duke ($4,100)

FanDuel Core Plays

Paolo Banchero – Duke ($8,700)
Jabari Smith – Auburn ($7,200)
Davion Mintz – Kentucky ($4,600)