THE SLATE
12p- Butler @ Providence (-9.0) 127.0 O/U
1p- Northwestern @ Purdue (-13.0) 150.0 O/U
2p- Xavier (-1.0) @ Marquette 146.0 O/U
3p- Arizona (-13.5) @ California 137.5 O/U
3p- Memphis (-5.0) @ Tulsa 143.5 O/U
3:30p- Michigan @ Indiana (-3.0) 134.5 O/U
TOP TEAM IMPLIED SCORES
Purdue- 81.75
Arizona- 75.50
Memphis- 74.25
Xavier- 74.00
Marquette- 72.00
Tulsa- 69.25
Indiana- 69.00
TOP GUARDS
Jaden Ivey (Purdue) Opp NW ($8.3K DK/7.5K FD)
The sophomore guard currently leads the Boilermakers with 16.7 points and 1.3 blocks per game while averaging a team-high 29.3 minutes per contest. Ivey posted 19 of his 21 points in the second half of last Wednesday’s 68-65 loss to Indiana- it was the fifth time this season he has surpassed 20 points in a game. Note that Ivey is dealing with a hip flexor and is a GTD- if he is out Ethan Morton, Brandon Newman and Eric Hunter Jr could all see increased playing time.
Jordan Shepherd (California) Opp ARIZ ($6.4K DK/6.0K FD)
Sixth year guard Shepherd has been Cal’s leading scorer, averaging 14.3 points per game, as he has stepped into the Matt Bradley role doing a lot of the perimeter scoring. He is the team usage (27.2%) and shot leader (27.7%) and even though Cal has a big task at hand against Arizona they are at home in a positive pace differential game.
Boo Buie (Northwestern) Opp @PUR ($7.1K DK/6.7K FD)
Buie struggles with shot selection and a lack of awareness at times but when he’s on fire, he’s on fire. He can win games for Northwestern with his shot making ability and his boom or bust style creates potential for upsets- the exact environment they will be in today at Purdue. Buie is the teams second leading scorer only behind Pete Nance at 15.9 points plus leads the team in usage (27.5%) and is 32nd in the nation with a 34.4% assist rate.
Other Guards to Consider:
Bennedict Mathurin (ARIZ) $8.8K DK/7.6K FD
Paul Scruggs (XAV) $8.0K DK/6.5K FD * FD Value
Darryll Morsell G/F (MARQ) $6.8K DK/6.3K FD
Sasha Stefanovic G/F (PUR) $6.4K DK/6.1K FD
Dalen Terry G/F (ARIZ) $6.2K DK/6.0K FD
TOP VALUE GUARDS
Darien Jackson G/F (Tulsa) Opp MEM ($4.8K DK/5.8K FD)
Jackson cracked the Tulsa starting lineup two games ago and has played 32 and 35 minutes in those games. If he can stay out of foul trouble, he should be able to easily eclipse 5-6X his salary like he did on Thursday night against Cincinnati when he scored 21 points on an eye popping 14 shots to go along with five rebounds, three assists and a couple steals for 34.8 DKFP.
Pelle Larsson (Arizona) Opp @CAL ($3.8K DK/5.2K FD)
Larsson is coming off his best game of the season as he scored 13 points with six assists and three blocks (33 DKFP) in 33 minutes of play which was also a season high. The minutes bump came due to an Azuolas Tubelis ankle injury early in the first half of the Wildcats 85-57 victory over Stanford on Thursday. If Tubelis is out again today, we could see another 30+ minutes from Larsson as he can take advantage of extra playing time for the #2 adjusted tempo offense in the nation.
Other Guard Values to Consider:
Greg Elliot (MARQ) $3.7K DK/4.7K FD
Jared Bynum (PROV) $4.9K FD/5.1K FD
Lester Quinones (MEM) $5.2K DK/4.9K FD
Justin Minaya G/F (MARQ) $5.0K DK
TOP FORWARDS
Trayce Jackson-Davis (Indiana) Opp MICH ($9.2K DK/8.1K FD)
TJD has had a tough week personally but the Hoosiers as a team are on a high after a huge win over #4 Purdue on Thursday. He took a spill late in the Nebraska game on Monday and it was very visible that he was playing through some pain against Purdue a few nights later. He ended up playing just 11 minutes due to the four fouls he picked up in that period. So, after a few more days rest now TJD must play against another top Big Ten big man- Hunter Dickinson of Michigan- after facing off with Purdue’s Trevion Williams and Zach Edey. TJD has the edge in athleticism against Dickinson, but this will be an interesting battle for the highest projected forward on the slate.
Christian Koloko (Arizona) Opp @CAL ($7.7K DK/7.7K FD)
Koloko ran into foul trouble against Stanford this week and ended up with his lowest statistical output in a month (11 DKFP) which is good news for DFS players because he also saw a drop in his salary. With a $7.7K tag on DraftKings (lowest since 12/22) and the possibility of Azuolas Tubelis sitting out with an ankle injury, Koloko is in a smash spot today against Cal. With a current 29.8% combined rebounding and 13.7% block rate (10th in the nation) Koloko should also get a bump up in production without Tubelis.
Zach Freemantle (Xavier) Opp @MARQ ($6.2K DK/5.8K FD)
Freemantle can not play defense and that directly effects his playing time which bleeds into his DFS production. He is also dealing with the stomach flu but is expected to play today. So that’s the bad. The good? He has played over 30 minutes in the last two games and when he plays 30+ he becomes one of the better point per dollar plays on the slate. In those two games one was a double-double against Creighton and then in the DePaul game he scored seven points with nine rebounds for 26.3 DKFP.
Other Top Forward Plays:
Jeriah Horne (TLSA) $8.9K DK/7.5K FD
Pete Nance (NW) $8.0K DK/7.9K FD
Justin Lewis (MARQ) $8.6K DK/7.8K FD
Jalen Duren (MEM) $6.9K DK/7.1K FD
TOP VALUE FORWARDS
Josh Minott (Memphis) Opp @TLSA ($5.6K DK/6.6K FD)
Minott has started the last five games with players like DeAndre Williams and Landers Nolley out with injuries. He is another talented four-star wing in the Memphis pipeline and if he stays out of foul trouble, he could easily hit 6X his value against the worst ranked defense on the slate- Tulsa (206th ranked defensive efficiency). He struggled with early fouls and a bad team first half against SMU but in three of the last four games before that he was putting up 30+ DKFP including a double-double against Cincinnati. Need to pay attention to injury news but if Minott starts again today he will be a top forward value play.
Jalen Celestine G/F (California) Opp ARIZ ($3.6K DK)
Sophomore Celestine is a promising wing player and has now started two of the last three games. His last game against Washington State Celestine played 34 minutes and scored nine points with three rebounds (14.3 DKFP). This will be a positive pace differential game for Cal as Arizona has the #13 adjusted efficiency offense (116) and #2 adjusted tempo (74.0) making at least 4X value a lock for the near minimum priced Celestine if he gets another start.
Other Forward Values to Consider:
Justin Minaya G/F (MARQ) $5.0K DK/5.5K FD
Kur Kuath (MARQ) $4.8K FD
Mason Gillis G/F (PUR) $4.7K DK/5.0K FD
Ryan Young (NW) $5.3K DK/5.8K FD
Oumar Bello (ARIZ) $4.1K DK *scored 21 pts/6 rebs in 22 mins after Tubelis injury
DRAFTKINGS CORE
Christian Koloko (Arizona)
Jaden Ivey (Purdue)
Darrien Jackson (Tulsa) value
FANDUEL CORE
Jeriah Horne (Tulsa)
Paul Scruggs (Xavier)
Kur Kuath (MARQ) value