CBB DFS Playbook & Core Plays: January 20

Dan Servodidio

@dan_servodidio

College Basketball DFS Playbook

Published: Jan 20, 2022

THE SLATE (Odds & Totals via DraftKings Sportsbook)

7 pm ET -- Purdue (-3.5) at Indiana -- 141 O/U
7 pm ET -- SMU at Memphis (-6) -- 148.5 O/U
7:30 pm ET -- USC (-2) at Colorado -- 137 O/U
9 pm ET -- Connecticut (-7.5) at Butler -- 127 O/U
9 pm ET -- Tulsa at Cincinnati (-7.5) -- 132 O/U (DK Only)
11 pm ET -- San Francisco at Gonzaga (-17) -- 160 O/U (DK Only)
11 pm ET -- Arizona (-11.5) at Stanford -- 150 O/U
11 pm ET -- UCLA (-9) at Utah -- 144.5 O/U
11:30 pm ET -- Washington at Oregon State (-2.5) -- 145 O/U (DK Only)

Top KenPom Projected Team Totals

Gonzaga – 87
Memphis – 80
Arizona – 80
UCLA – 77
Purdue – 75
SMU – 75
Oregon State – 73
Indiana – 72
San Francisco – 72

Top Guards

Player	Team	Opp.	DK $	DK FPPG	FD $	FD FPPG
Terrell Brown Jr.	UW	ORST	9000	37.77
Brown has been a one-man wrecking crew for Washington all season and it’s resulting in a high floor/ceiling DFS combo. His 33% usage rate, 33% shots share and 34% assist rate during conference play are all tops in the Pac-12 so far. Expect the heavy usage running the point to make him a top overall play again tonight as he’s averaging 41 DK on the road this season.
Bennedict Mathurin	ARIZ	STAN	8700	31.97	8300	29.35
Though Mathurin is coming off a couple “down” games, he should get back to being a DFS stud in a faster-paced, higher-scoring matchup tonight. People may overlook him on this slate because of the recent subpar performances, but that’s a mistake. He’s actually averaging 40+ DK on the road this season and should stuff the stat sheet plenty tonight to anchor your lineups.
Jaden Ivey	PUR	IU	8200	31.15	7700	28.87
Ivey is coming off back-to-back games of 17+ real points and 32+ DK coming into tonight. He’s now averaging a comfortable 30 DK over the past ten games and continues to boast one of the best floor/ceiling combos among DFS CBB guards. Tonight, Indiana doesn’t really have the wing talent to go toe-to-toe with Ivey and he should be in line for another big performance here.
Andrew Nembhard	GONZ	SFO	7500	24.61
Nembhard sometimes gets overshadowed on Gonzaga’s roster by the dominance of Drew Timme and Chet Holmgren. However, the point guard’s last two games are a good reminder of his DFS stud upside on any given night. He put up 50 DK vs. BYU and then responded with 19 real points and 31 DK last time out vs. Santa Clara. There’s room for multiple Gonzaga players to have good games with how high-scoring and fast-paced the team plays - and Nembhard could easily be one of the slate’s top performers.
Khalil Shabazz	SFO	GONZ	6200	23.71
If San Francisco wants to keep it close against Gonzaga, it’ll have to do so with the backcourt duo of Jamaree Bouyea and Khalil Shabazz because big man Yauhen Massalski will likely run into trouble vs. Chet Holmgren down low. Bouyea is a solid play as well, but Shabazz is notably cheaper and might give you similar or better production. He’s put up 30+ DK in four of the last five games and will benefit from the uptempo environment tonight.

Other Top Guards:

Kendric Davis -- SMU ($9,400 DK / $7,900 FD)
Jamaree Bouyea -- San Francisco ($8,000 DK Only)
Johnny Juzang -- UCLA ($7,600 DK / $7,800 FD)
R.J. Cole -- Connecticut ($6,900 DK / $7,900 FD)

Value Guards

Player	Team	Opp.	DK $	DK FPPG	FD $	FD FPPG
Emmanuel Bandoumel	SMU	MEM	5300	18.6	5200	16.61
Targeting opposing players vs. Memphis is usually a good strategy because the team plays at a lightning-quick pace and usually struggles to defend. The Tigers are especially bad at defending the three-point line and Bandoumel can benefit from that tendency. He’s shooting 37% from three this season and can easily make a few to return value. Case in point: he went 4-for-9 from deep last game to finish with 17 real points and 30 DK.
Rasir Bolton	GONZ	SFO	5200	19.89
You’ll notice this playbook is a bit Gonzaga-heavy - and why not?! The team can explode for 100+ real points again tonight and the uptempo environment allows for multiple Zags to be valuable in DFS. If you’re looking for cheap exposure to this offense, Bolton is a great value in the 5k range. He’s averaging 21 DK over the last ten games and has 19+ DK in four straight coming into tonight.
John Newman III	CINCY	TLSA	5100	18.25
DK has increased his price tag a bit from the previous 4k range, but he’s still a great cash value while doing a little bit of everything. The senior wing is averaging 21 DK over the last ten games and 19.8 DK at home so far. While he doesn’t do any one thing very well, he’ll stuff the stat sheet and rack up enough ancillary stats to be safe in cash.
Tyler Harris	MEM	SMU	4100	13.34	5500	11.43
Pay attention to Memphis’ injury news ahead of this tip, but Harris could be in line for another increased role based on who’s available. He’s taken on a bigger offensive role in the Tigers’ backcourt with Alex Lomax and Landers Nolley out lately - posting 26+ DK in three straight games. The FD price tag is reasonable, but he’s way too cheap on DK if Lomax and Nolley are out again.
KJ Simpson	COL	USC	3200	13.92	4300	12.45
The Buffs’ freshman guard recently missed a game with a head injury but has come back strong since. He put up 17 points and 35 DK in 29 minutes in the first game back and then 15 DK over 20 minutes in a blowout win in the second. He’s an above-average reserve player who boasts a 24% shot rate and 25% usage rate during conference play when he’s on the court. There’s tons of upside at some cheap price tags here.

Other Value Guards:

Lester Quinones -- Memphis ($5,000 DK / $5,000 FD)
Julian Rishwain -- San Francisco ($3,900 DK Only)
Nolan Hickman -- Gonzaga ($3,700 DK Only)
Jaylen Clark -- UCLA ($3,200 DK / $4,800 FD)
Trey Galloway -- Indiana ($3,000 DK / $4,200 FD)
Tre’ Williams -- Oregon State ($3,000 DK Only)

Top Forwards

Player	Team	Opp.	DK $	DK FPPG	FD $	FD FPPG
Drew Timme	GONZ	SFO	9300	30.84
With Gonzaga on the DK slate, we’re faced with the decision of whether to pay up for Drew Timme or Chet Holmgren (or both if you really want). Even though he’s more expensive, Timme is the way to go. He’s been the team’s go-to offensive option in conference play with 30+ real points and 42+ DK in back-to-back games coming in. It’ll be hard to fade him in cash.
Azuolas Tubelis	ARIZ	STAN	8300	31.85	7600	30.17
Arizona’s big man duo of Tubelis and Koloko are both solid plays on this slate and it seems either or both can be among the slate’s highest-scorers in any given game. Tubelis, though, is leading the squad in usage rate and shots share during conference play and is a better bet for DFS production than Koloko, who’s been a bit inconsistent. Tubelis is coming off a monster 32-point, 54 DK performance last time out.
Zach Edey	PUR	IU	8000	29.61	8500	27.92
Edey has been outperforming Trevion Williams lately as his 7-foot-4 frame is proving too much for opposing bigs. He’s put up 20+ real points and 37+ DK in four of the last five games and two straight coming into tonight. Even though Indiana has a talented frontcourt, it’s very undersized compared to Edey’s massive frame in the paint. As long as he stays out of foul trouble, he should be a great play in all formats.
Adama Sanogo	UCONN	BUT	7800	33.02	8100	30.89
Since returning from injury, Sanogo has been nearly unstoppable in the paint as a post scorer, rebounder and shot-blocker. He’s posted 48, 63 and 44 DK in the last three games and he just put up a 15-rebound double-double last time out vs. this same Butler squad. Maybe things get tougher on the road in this rematch, but it’s really hard to fade a guy that’s been lighting up DFS lineups lately.
Jalen Duren	MEM	SMU	6200	27.27	6600	24.59
Even after posting 30 DK last time out, Duren remains pretty affordable in the mid-6k range on both sites tonight in a high-total matchup. While he has been inconsistent in real life and DFS production this season, the NBA-level talent alone gives him higher upside than the salaries indicate. He can easily go for 30 DK again tonight - especially if DeAndre Williams is out again - and he’s averaging 31 DK at home this season.

Other Top Forwards:

Chet Holmgren -- Gonzaga ($9,100 DK Only)
Isaiah Mobley -- USC ($8,900 DK / $8,200 FD)
Warith Alatishe -- Oregon State ($7,500 DK Only)

Value Forwards

Player	Team	Opp.	DK $	DK FPPG	FD $	FD FPPG
Anton Watson	GONZ	SFO	5500	20.94
On the DK slate, Watson is too cheap in the 5k range for the realistic possibility at 30+ DK points. In fact, he’s put up 32 DK or more in three of the last four games and is averaging 23 DK over the past ten contests. With how high-scoring and uptempo the Gonzaga games usually go, Watson will have plenty of opportunities at rebounds, easy buckets and ancillary stats to fill up the stat sheet.
Cody Riley	UCLA	UTAH	4500	14.3	4700	13.56
Riley should have an advantage on the glass and in the paint with Branden Carlson out for Utah tonight. His 25% usage rate actually leads the team during conference play, though he’s only playing 20 minutes or so per game since returning from injury. At some cheap price tags, Riley doesn’t have to do much to return cash value and he’s put up 24, 17 and 15 DK over the last three.
Emoni Bates	MEM	SMU	4400	19.38	5100	17.25
After recently missing time with a finger injury, Bates is back to a high-usage role in Memphis’ rotation. He’s put up 32, 19 and 18 DK points over the last three games and is seeing an uptick in playing time with the Tigers’ slew of injuries. Depending on the pre-game injury news, Bates could be a very nice value in this high-total, uptempo matchup at home where he’s averaging 21 DK this season.
Dusan Mahorcic	UTAH	UCLA	3900	13.1	4200	12.28
Utah’s senior big man has stepped into a bigger role with Branden Carlson out. After recently returning from an injury himself, Mahorcic has put up 18, 18 and 23 DK points over the last three games while logging more playing time in the frontcourt spot previously held by Carlson. The uptick in minutes should continue as the Utes will need his size to contend with Cody Riley and Myles Johnson in the paint tonight.
Nate Roberts	UW	ORST	3500	14.67
We never want to be too reactive in DFS CBB, but it’s impossible to ignore what Roberts has done the last two games. The Huskies’ center has put up 29 and 17 DK in these past two contests and logged 30 minutes in both. That’s a far cry from his single-digit DFS points and minutes in each of the three games prior. Still, there’s upside for another good outing tonight against Oregon St’s poor defensive rebounding and subpar interior defense.

Other Value Forwards:

Tristan da Silva -- Colorado ($5,600 DK / $4,900 FD)
Brandon Angel -- Stanford ($4,900 DK / $4,800 FD)
Mason Gillis -- Purdue ($4,400 DK / $4,700 FD)
Patrick Tape -- San Francisco ($3,800 DK Only)
Malcolm Dandridge -- Memphis ($3,100 DK / $4,300 FD)

DraftKings Core Plays

Drew Timme – Gonzaga ($9,300)
Andrew Nembhard – Gonzaga ($7,500)
Tyler Harris – Memphis ($4,100)

FanDuel Core Plays

Jaden Ivey – Purdue ($7,700)
Jalen Duren – Memphis ($6,600)
Dusan Mahorcic – Utah ($4,200)