CBB DFS Playbook & Core Plays: January 19

Dan Servodidio

@dan_servodidio

College Basketball DFS Playbook

Published: Jan 19, 2022

THE SLATE (Odds & Totals via DraftKings Sportsbook)

6:30 pm ET -- Mississippi State at Florida (-6) -- 138 O/U (DK Only)
7 pm ET -- LSU at Alabama (-3.5) -- 148 O/U
7 pm ET -- Virginia Tech (-2) at NC State -- 135.5 O/U
7 pm ET -- St. John’s at Creighton (-3.5) -- 150.5 O/U
7 pm ET -- Wake Forest (-2.5) at Georgia Tech -- 143 O/U
7 pm ET -- Boston College at Louisville (-8) -- 138.5 O/U (DK Only)
8 pm ET -- Marquette at Villanova (-14) -- 138.5 O/U
8 pm ET -- TCU at Oklahoma State (-5) -- 132.5 O/U (DK Only)
8:30 pm ET -- Kentucky (-7) at Texas A&M -- 142 O/U
8:30 pm ET -- Iowa (-3.5) at Rutgers -- 151 O/U
9 pm ET -- Virginia (-3.5) at Pittsburgh -- 116 O/U (FD Only)
9 pm ET -- Xavier (-7.5) at DePaul -- 151 O/U (FD Only)
9 pm ET -- Georgia at Auburn (-21.5) -- 151 O/U (FD Only)

Top KenPom Projected Team Totals

Auburn – 89
Xavier – 80
Iowa – 79
Creighton – 78
Kentucky – 76
Villanova – 75
Rutgers – 74
DePaul – 74
St. John's – 72
Alabama – 72
Wake Forest – 72
Florida – 72

Top Guards

Player	Team	Opp.	DK $	DK FPPG	FD $	FD FPPG
Ron Harper Jr.	RU	IOWA	8500	32.41	7900	29.54
We always like targeting players going against the fast-paced Iowa squad and it puts Rutgers and Harper Jr. in a prime spot tonight. The Scarlet Knights’ best all-around player has had some monster performances lately with 31 points scored and 41 DK last time out and now 35+ DK in four of the last six. Though he’s been a bit up-and-down in DFS production this season, the matchup tonight points in the “boom” direction of his trends. Plus, he’s notoriously been better at home - averaging 36 DK compared to 25 DK on the road.
Jordan Usher	GT	WAKE	8200	30.61	8300	27.91
Both Jordan Usher and Michael Devoe are solid plays in a slightly uptempo environment at home vs. Wake tonight. Usher has the safer DFS floor with his stat-stuffing ability and heavy offensive usage/shot volume. Devoe is a better play on FD for the savings, but Usher shouldn’t be $400 less on DK. He could also go overlooked on this slate with so many studs in action.
Jahvon Quinerly	BAMA	LSU	8100	26.65	6800	24.33
Though he’s coming off an absolute dud performance over the weekend, look for Quinerly to bounce back tonight. People may fade Quinerly and some of the Bama guys because of that last outing and with a tough matchup vs. LSU’s strong defense. However, the Tide point guard can still give you 30+ DFS points with ease in his high-usage role in a back-and-forth game environment.
Justin Moore	VU	MARQ	7300	29.46	7500	27.23
Both Justin Moore and Collin Gillespie are in an excellent spot tonight in a major pace-boost at home vs. Marquette. You can realistically play both in the same cash lineup and feel pretty good about it. When choosing between them, though, Moore is the better option as he’s put up 34+ DK in four straight games and is very affordable compared to other top-tier guards tonight.
Wendell Green Jr.	AUB	UGA			7100	25.69
At first glance, Green’s FD price tag seems like a massive oversight as he’s put up 31+ FD points in three of the last four. Now he gets an easy matchup vs. Georgia’s weak defense in an uptempo environment. Although there’s some blowout risk with Auburn being massive favorites, Green should do plenty to anchor cash lineups at this affordable salary.

Other Top Guards:

Alondes Williams -- Wake Forest ($9,300 DK / $8,100 FD)
Dereon Seabron -- NC State ($9,200 DK / $8,400 FD)
Michael Devoe -- Georgia Tech ($8,700 DK / $7,300 FD)
Posh Alexander -- St. John’s ($8,000 DK / $8,200 FD)
Collin Gillespie -- Villanova ($7,600 DK / $7,000 FD)
Paul Scruggs -- Xavier ($6,900 FD Only)

Value Guards

Player	Team	Opp.	DK $	DK FPPG	FD $	FD FPPG
Eric Gaines	LSU	BAMA	5700	22.98	5300	20.92
Gaines could be starting a third straight game with Xavier Pinson possibly out again tonight. If that’s the case, then the sophomore point guard would be a nice bargain at still-cheap price tags despite putting up 34 DK last game with a stuffed stat line of 14 points, six rebounds, four assists and four steals. He’s especially a good value on FD.
Geo Baker	RU	IOWA	4800	23.29	6600	21.57
Baker is appropriately priced up on FD, but he’s a bargain on DK at sub-5k. In a pace-boost matchup, Baker should be active offensively and 20-25 DK points or more is a reasonable expectation. Since conference play started up, Baker’s 24% shot rate barely trails only Harper Jr. for the Rutgers team lead (25%).
Ryan Nembhard	CRE	STJN	4800	25.3	5300	22.67
Nembhard is a bit too cheap on both sites tonight considering the freshman’s high-usage point guard role for Creighton in a pace-boost matchup here vs. St. John’s. He’s coming off an excellent performance over the weekend when he dropped 18 real points and 34 DK vs. Xavier. We can reasonably expect 25 DK or better in this uptempo environment.
Daivien Williamson	WAKE	GT	4100	19.73	4700	18.17
Williamson returned to the Wake starting lineup over the weekend after a recent two-game absence and he promptly put up 20 DK over 34 minutes. That’s a really good sign for someone who was just in COVID protocols but has earned a starting role right back. He’s a nice value on DK at just over 4k and is still very affordable on FD below 5k for cash in both spots.
Shakeel Moore	MSST	UF	4100	22.42
On the DK slate, Moore could be a popular value at this cheap price tag. There’s really no reason for him to be priced down this low as a regular starter for Mississippi State who’s put up 20 DK or more numerous times in the past chunk of games. We could be looking at 6x value or better here.

Other Value Guards:

Paul Mulcahy -- Rutgers ($5,400 DK / $6,400 FD)
Tyrece Radford -- Texas A&M ($5,100 DK / $5,800 FD)
Nate Johnson -- Xavier ($4,600 FD Only)
Storm Murphy -- Virginia Tech ($4,300 DK / $4,800 FD)
El Ellis -- Louisville ($4,100 DK Only)
Thomas Allen -- NC State ($3,000 DK / $4,300 FD)

Top Forwards

Player	Team	Opp.	DK $	DK FPPG	FD $	FD FPPG
Oscar Tshiebwe	UK	TA&M	9500	42.25	8700	39.65
If Tshiebwe is on the slate, then he has to be in consideration no matter what the cost. The Kentucky center has a proven 50+ DFS point ceiling if he posts one of those 20-rebound or 30-point double-doubles again. However, he may find things a bit tougher on the road tonight and he could “only” give you 30 DK or so. That’s tough to swallow at these expensive price tags in cash, but fire away in GPPs.
Keegan Murray	IOWA	RU	9400	43.62	8500	41.50
Murray should always be considered a top overall play if Iowa is on the slate. The breakout player has been that good this season in a heavy offensive usage role for the Hawkeyes. Over the last ten games, Murray is averaging 22.9 PPG and 41.7 DK points. He’s proven the ability to score 25+ points and 40-50 DFS points multiple times and it’s hard to imagine that stopping in another fast-paced matchup tonight.
Tari Eason	LSU	BAMA	8400	30.69	6900	28.68
Alabama has struggled against opposing bigs all season and it likely continues tonight with Eason. Though he comes off the bench, the sophomore leads LSU in shot volume and usage rate this year and is the team’s best post scorer. The upside for 40+ DFS points is there, like when he dominated Tennessee earlier this month to the tune of 24 points, 12 boards and 45 DK. The FD price differential makes Eason a better play over there.
Keve Aluma	VT	NCST	8300	29.33	7000	27.66
As Virginia Tech’s go-to offensive option, Aluma boasts a strong DFS cash floor of 25-30 points. He’s posted 25+ DK in nine straight and is averaging 32 DK over the past ten. Tonight he’ll benefit from a slight pace-boost against NC State’s soft interior defense. Aluma put up 28 DK and 18 points scored in this matchup earlier this month and can easily eclipse those numbers tonight. He's a bit underpriced on FD slate.
Ryan Kalkbrenner	CRE	STJN	8000	28.1	7400	26.96
These price tags may seem high for Kalkbrenner, but they make sense when you consider what he’s been doing lately. The Creighton center dropped 50 DK vs. Marquette earlier this month and is averaging a strong 30 DK over the past ten games. He has a matchup advantage tonight in a pace-boost vs. St. John’s undersized frontcourt. A double-double and 30+ DFS points seems like a safe bet.

Other Top Forwards:

Julian Champagnie -- St. John’s ($9,700 DK / $8,600 FD)
Darius Days -- LSU ($7,900 DK / $7,200 FD)
Ryan Hawkins -- Creighton ($7,700 DK / $7,600 FD)
Jabari Smith -- Auburn ($7,500 FD Only)

Value Forwards

Player	Team	Opp.	DK $	DK FPPG	FD $	FD FPPG
Dallas Walton	WAKE	GT	5100	19.64	5400	18.65
Dallas Walton..Georgia Tech is one of the worst rebounding teams in the ACC and Walton should have an advantage here with his 7-foot frame. Whether he’s rebounding, blocking shots or getting easy buckets around the rim, the Wake center should do just enough to return value in cash. He’s averaging 21 DK over the last ten games and we’ll gladly take that at some cheap tags.
Aaron Wheeler	STJN	CRE	4400	14.73	5000	13.42
Wheeler has been much more involved in the St. John’s rotation since the team began conference play and we have no reason to believe it’ll stop tonight. The Purdue transfer has logged 25+ minutes in four straight games and has posted 26, 27 and 18 DK over the last three. Not only has his playing time increased, but his shot volume has gone up as well in these recent outings. Wheeler is a strong value in this high-total matchup.
Charles Bediako	BAMA	LSU	4300	18.48	5400	17.82
Bama’s freshman 7-footer is very boom-or-bust, but the good performances can give you a 5x return or better. It just happened in the last game when Bediako put up 25 DK with 11 points and just enough ancillary stats. The Tide will need his size to man the paint against LSU’s talent down low tonight. If he can stay out of foul trouble, the sky’s the limit.
Zach Freemantle	XAV	DEP			5300	16.44
On the FD slate, Freemantle is a bit underpriced and looks like a strong value in a pace-boost matchup here vs. DePaul’s below-average defense. Xavier’s big man is now fully back from an early-season injury and he’s coming off a double-double and 27 FD performance vs. Creighton last time out. Eventually he’ll be priced in the 6k range, so this is a nice buy-low opportunity.
James Karnik	BC	UL	3700	17.03
With Boston College on the DK slate, both James Karnik and Quentin Post are upside values at their cheap price tags. Karnik is coming off a 17-point, 26 DK performance vs. Clemson last time out and he’s shown the ability to return 5x value or more at this sub-4k salary. Louisville has struggled on the offensive glass and Karnik has been BC’s best defensive rebounder during conference play - making a double-double a real possibilty.

Other Value Forwards:

Isaiah Mucius -- Wake Forest ($5,500 DK / $5,800 FD)
Darius Miles -- Alabama ($4,100 DK / $4,800 FD)
Quinten Post -- Boston College ($4,100 DK Only)
Rodney Howard -- Georgia Tech ($3,200 DK / $4,400 FD)

DraftKings Core Plays

Justin Moore – Villanova ($7,300)
Geo Baker – Rutgers ($4,800)
Ryan Nembhard – Creighton ($4,800)

FanDuel Core Plays

Ron Harper Jr. – Rutgers ($7,900)
Wendell Green Jr. – Auburn ($7,100)
Zach Freemantle – Xavier ($5,300)