CBB DFS Playbook & Core Plays: January 12

Dan Servodidio

@dan_servodidio

College Basketball DFS Playbook

Published: Jan 12, 2022

THE SLATE (Odds & Totals via DraftKings Sportsbook)

6:30 pm ET -- Villanova at Xavier (-1.5) -- 137 O/U
7 pm ET -- LSU at Florida (-2.5) -- 138.5 O/U
7 pm ET -- Minnesota at Michigan State (-11.5) -- 138.5 O/U
7 pm ET -- Duke (-6) at Wake Forest -- 152 O/U
7 pm ET -- Clemson at Notre Dame (-3) -- 137.5 O/U
7 pm ET -- Temple at Tulsa (-3) -- 135 O/U (DK Only)
7 pm ET -- Memphis (-1) at UCF -- 151 O/U
8:30 pm ET -- St. John’s at Connecticut (-11) -- 152.5 O/U
9 pm ET -- Maryland at Northwestern (-5) -- 140 O/U
9 pm ET -- TCU at Kansas State (-3.5) -- 137 O/U (DK Only)
9 pm ET -- NC State at Louisville (-6.5) -- 149 O/U
9 pm ET -- Virginia Tech at Virginia (-1.5) -- 117 O/U

Top KenPom Projected Team Totals

Connecticut – 82
Duke – 78
UCF – 77
Memphis – 76
Michigan State – 76
Louisville – 76
Northwestern – 75
Wake Forest – 74
Notre Dame – 73
LSU – 71
Clemson – 71
St. John's – 71
Villanova – 71
Xavier – 70

Top Guards

Player	Team	Opp.	DK $	DK FPPG	FD $	FD FPPG
Dereon Seabron	NCST	UL	9200	40.8	8600	37.80
Seabron is admittedly very expensive, but he continues to get it done nearly every single game if you pay up for him. NC State’s do-it-all wing is averaging 20.9 PPG, 10 RPG, 3.7 APG and 40 DK points over the last 10 games and boasts one of the better floor/ceiling combos in the sport. Seabron should keep it going in a slight pace-boost against Louisville.
Alondes Williams	WAKE	DUKE	9200	39.36	8500	36.56
Another high-priced guy who’s been plenty worth it. In his high-usage role as Wake’s offensive catalyst, Williams is filling up the stat sheet in multiple ways while averaging 20.6 PPG, 7.9 RPG, 5.8 APG and 41 DK over the last 10 games. Expect Williams to anchor your lineups once again at home tonight in a high-scoring, uptempo matchup vs. Duke.
R.J. Cole	UCONN	STJN	7500	30.84	8100	28.74
Both Cole and Tyrese Martin are firmly in play tonight and you likely can’t go wrong with either one in cash or GPP. This is a major pace-boost matchup vs. St. John’s and Cole, specifically, should give you a high floor while running the point in UConn’s attack. In the last three games with Martin back healthy, Cole still has put up 37, 36 and 27 DK points vs. Big East competition.
Justin Moore	VU	XAV	6800	28.58	7300	26.46
Villanova’s duo of Gillespie and Moore are both solid options tonight facing a faster-paced Xavier squad. Moore might be the better play on DK for the savings, though they’re basically the same price on FD. Moore is apparently dealing with a hamstring injury but he hasn’t missed a game and still put up 21 real points and 36 DK last time out. Earlier this year, he had 17 points and 27 DK vs. Xavier in the first meeting.
Blake Wesley	ND	CLEM	6400	23.41	7400	20.68
Wesley continues to impress both in real life and DFS to the point where he’s considered a possible NBA lottery pick to go along with his higher price tags on DK and FD. The freshman is now the clear alpha for Notre Dame and is coming off a 22-point, 40 DK performance last time out. Though he’s more of a GPP play compared to other stud guards tonight, Wesley can certainly get it done.

Other Top Guards to Consider:

Julian Champagnie -- St. John’s ($9,800 DK / $8,300 FD)
Collin Gillespie -- Villanova ($7,600 DK / $7,200 FD)
Tyrese Martin -- Connecticut ($6,700 DK / $7,200 FD)
Damian Dunn -- Temple ($6,500 DK Only)
Dylan Addae-Wusu -- St. John’s ($5,700 DK / $7,400 FD)

Value Guards

Player	Team	Opp.	DK $	DK FPPG	FD $	FD FPPG
Eric Gaines	LSU	UF	5200	22.22	5100	20.24
Gaines has been coming off the bench almost exclusively this season, but he should be moving into the starting lineup with Xavier Pinson out tonight. Gaines and Pinson have been splitting point guard duties in the LSU offense and now that responsibility falls heavily on the former. He’s already been a solid DFS play, but the increase in usage and role makes him a top value.
Prentiss Hubb	ND	CLEM	4500	17.82	5300	15.86
If the DFS sites are going to price down Hubb in the 5k range or lower, it’s a buy-low opportunity for us on a guy that has the talent to smash value. Though he’s usually taking a backseat to Blake Wesley in the Notre Dame attack, Hubb can still have those games where he’s dropping 25-30 DFS points like he did last time out (32 DK). We’d take that all day at these cheap prices.
Jahlil White	TEMP	TLSA	3900	15.85
On the DK slate, White might end up being one of the more popular value plays because of his way-too-cheap price. Since joining the Temple starting lineup over the last four games, White has put up 21+ DK points each time and is playing a larger role while Jake Forrester sits out. Hard to argue with 5x value or better.
Samuell Williamson	UL	NCST	3700	14.48	5100	13.40
After starting the season on the bench and having his playing time weirdly limited, Williamson has now started the last four games and is playing a much larger role for Louisville. He’s put up 20+ DK in three of these four starts and there’s simply no reason for him to be priced below 4k on the DK slate after he just had 20 DK at $4200 last time out. He’s even a good value on FD in the 5k range.
Tyler Harris	MEM	UCF	3300	11.45	4400	9.82
Memphis has some injuries to monitor tonight, so thankfully this one is a 7 pm ET tip. If Lomax and Timberlake are both out, then Harris would be locked into more playing time in the Tigers’ backcourt and can smash value. He did just that last game with his 20 points scored and 29 DK with Lomax out and Timberlake departing early.

Other Value Guards to Consider:

Landers Nolley -- Memphis ($5,400 DK / $5,600 FD)
Tyree Appleby -- Florida ($5,100 DK / $5,700 FD)
Caleb Daniels -- Villanova ($4,900 DK / $5,000 FD)
A.J. Hoggard -- Michigan State ($4,200 DK / $5,000 FD)
Brandon Murray -- LSU ($4,000 DK / $5,400 FD)

Top Forwards

Player	Team	Opp.	DK $	DK FPPG	FD $	FD FPPG
Paolo Banchero	DUKE	WAKE	9800	34.38	8400	32.14
Both of Duke’s headliners should be considered if you have the salary. Both Banchero and Wendell Moore Jr. should have big performances in a fast-paced, high-scoring matchup vs. Wake Forest and they’ll be motivated to lead Duke after getting upset at home last time out. Banchero is likely the more popular play because of his name-brand, but both can give you 40+ DK in this uptempo environment.
Pete Nance	NW	UMD	8900	34.23	7700	32.31
People will likely avoid Nance because of the expensive price tag, but he has a great matchup and should be a solid cash play tonight. Maryland has struggled against opposing bigs all year and Nance already had 35 DK and a double-double in this matchup earlier this season. He could easily replicate that performance at home this time.
Jake LaRavia	WAKE	DUKE	8700	31.48	7900	29.53
Wake’s offense revolves heavily around Alondes Williams and Jake LaRavia right now and both continue to be DFS studs with the heavy usage and production. We touched on Williams above, but LaRavia deserves strong consideration as well in this uptempo matchup vs. Duke. The Wake power forward will be going toe-to-toe with Paolo Banchero if he can stay out of foul trouble.
PJ Hall	CLEM	ND	8000	27.67	7000	26.03
Notre Dame has struggled against opposing big men this season and Hall could be the latest to post big numbers in this matchup. The Clemson center is coming off a 20-point, 34 DK performance over the weekend vs. NC State and has tons of confidence going home now for tonight’s matchup. He’s a better play on FD with the discount there.
Adama Sanogo	UCONN	STJN	5600	28.85	6100	26.96
The UConn big man recently returned from a hamstring injury and looked like his previous dominant self over the weekend - posting a big stat line of 18 points, 16 rebounds, three blocks and 48 DK. Now he gets a pace-boost matchup vs. St. John’s and their below-average frontcourt. Sanogo is frankly too cheap on both sites for a guy that should be priced in the 7k or 8k range among the stud forwards - and he’ll likely be there after another big game tonight.

Other Top Forwards to Consider:

Wendell Moore Jr. -- Duke ($9,500 DK / $8,000 FD)
Jeriah Horne -- Tulsa ($8,500 DK Only)
Tari Eason -- LSU ($8,100 DK / $7,600 FD)
Gabe Brown -- Michigan State ($7,200 DK / $7,000 FD)

Value Forwards

Player	Team	Opp.	DK $	DK FPPG	FD $	FD FPPG
AJ Griffin	DUKE	WAKE	5200	14.86	5300	13.99
After starting the season slow while recovering from a preseason injury, Griffin is now playing a key role in Duke’s rotation as their sixth-man in a tight rotation where only six players get meaningful minutes. The future NBA lottery pick is consistently playing 20-25 minutes while being plenty involved on both ends while he’s out there. Griffin should benefit from the fast-paced environment of tonight’s game to return value.
C.J. Walker	UCF	MEM	5100	20.46	4900	19.38
This is a decent value for pretty consistent DFS production. Walker is averaging just under 20 DK over the last 10 games and should now benefit from a pace-boost tonight. The UCF big should also get more rebounding opportunities if DeAndre Williams sits out again for Memphis.
Khadim Sy	WAKE	DUKE	4600	15.34	4700	14.12
We’ve talked plenty about this higher-scoring matchup between Duke and Wake, so let’s find another cheaper way to get exposure to it. Sy has been a solid value in recent games and that should continue tonight. His bigger 6-foot-10, 240-pound frame will be needed more in this matchup against Duke’s frontcourt of Banchero and Mark Williams. If he can stay out of foul trouble, he can return value.
Emoni Bates	MEM	UCF	4100	19.43	5400	17.52
After sitting out most of December with a finger injury, Bates returned in a big way on Sunday with 32 DK and a stuffed stat line of 12 points, seven boards and six assists. Maybe this is a sign of things to come for the high recruit after he’s been inconsistent earlier this year. He’s too cheap on the DK slate and could be playing a bigger role again tonight if DeAndre Williams, Alex Lomax and Earl Timberlake are all out.
Aaron Wheeler	STJN	UCONN	3600	13.35	4600	12.15
Wheeler has started seeing more playing time since St. John’s resumed its season this month - playing 25 and 31 minutes with 26 and 13 DK in the last two games, respectively. He’s even cracked the starting lineup and St. John’s will need his 6-foot-9 frame more often in this matchup against a taller UConn rotation and frontcourt.

Other Value Forwards to Consider:

Dallas Walton -- Wake Forest ($4,500 DK / $5,700 FD)
Matt Cross – Louisville ($4,200 DK / $4,500 FD)
Nick Jourdain -- Temple ($4,100 DK Only)
Malik Hall -- Michigan State ($3,800 DK / $5,700 FD)

DraftKings Core Plays

Adama Sanogo – Connecticut ($5,600)
Samuell Williamson – Louisville ($3,700)
Jahlil White – Temple ($3,900)

FanDuel Core Plays

Paolo Banchero – Duke ($8,400)
PJ Hall – Clemson ($7,000)
Adam Sanogo – Connecticut ($6,100)