CBB DFS Playbook & Core Plays: February 8

Dan Servodidio

@dan_servodidio

College Basketball DFS Playbook

Published: Feb 08, 2022

THE SLATE (Odds & Totals via DraftKings Sportsbook)

6 pm ET -- North Carolina at Clemson (-1) -- 145.5 O/U (DK Only)
6:30 pm ET -- Marquette at Connecticut (-5.5) -- 139 O/U (DK Only)
7 pm ET -- Auburn (-2) at Arkansas -- 151.5 O/U
7 pm ET -- LSU (-1.5) at Texas A&M -- 133 O/U
7 pm ET -- Iowa State at West Virginia (-2.5) -- 129 O/U
7 pm ET -- Kentucky (-10.5) at South Carolina -- 144.5 O/U
7 pm ET -- Wisconsin at Michigan State (-4) -- 138.5 O/U
8:30 pm ET -- Villanova (-4) at St. John’s -- 144.5 O/U
9 pm ET -- Michigan (-1.5) at Penn State -- 129 O/U
9 pm ET -- Indiana (-1) at Northwestern -- 135.5 O/U
9 pm ET -- Illinois at Purdue (-6) -- 146.5 O/U
11 pm ET -- UCLA (-7.5) at Stanford -- 133.5 O/U

Top KenPom Projected Team Totals

Purdue – 78
Auburn – 77
Villanova – 77
Kentucky – 76
Clemson – 76
North Carolina – 75
Connecticut – 74
Illinois – 73
Arkansas – 73
Michigan State – 72
UCLA – 71

Notable Injuries to Monitor:

Justin Moore. Villanova -- GAME-TIME DECISION (ankle)
Collin Gillespie, Villanova -- GAME-TIME DECISION (ankle)
Taz Sherman, West Virginia -- QUESTIONABLE (concussion)
Xavier Pinson, LSU -- QUESTIONABLE (knee)
Zep Jasper, Auburn -- QUESTIONABLE (illness)
Rob Phinisee, Indiana -- -- QUESTIONABLE (ankle)
Dawson Garcia, North Carolina -- DOUBTFUL (personal)
Hunter Tyson, Clemson -- OUT (clavicle)
Akok Akok, Connecticut – OUT (foot)
Jaylen Clark, UCLA -- QUESTIONABLE (concussion)
Noah Taitz, Stanford -- QUESTIONABLE (lower leg)

Top Guards

Player	Team	Opp.	DK $	DK FPPG	FD $	FD FPPG
Jaden Ivey	PUR	IL	8400	31.95	8400	29.59
Since recently returning from a hip injury, Ivey has quickly regained his alpha playmaking role for Purdue. He’s scored 21+ points in three straight games and has 44 and 45 DK in the last two with some stat-stuffing efforts. That’s a really good sign for someone coming off an injury. Ivey put up 19 points and 37 DK in the first meeting vs. Illinois and could easily replicate or best those numbers as a cash stud tonight.
JD Notae	ARK	AUB	8000	35.39	8300	32.65
Arkansas’ offensive playmaker is firmly in play tonight in a fast-paced, high-total matchup vs. Auburn at home. He’s averaging 19.6 PPG and 36 DK over the past ten games and has proven 40+ DFS upside when he’s draining from three. Though Auburn presents a tough matchup, this game could be back-and-forth enough for Notae to anchor cash or GPP lineups.
Jaime Jaquez Jr.	UCLA	STAN	7600	26.8	7500	25.26
Jaquez has looked pretty smooth since returning from an ankle injury with 31 and 48 DK in his two games back. The 27-point double-double in the last outing was certainly impressive and it bodes well for him tonight - especially with the Bruins wanting to avenge their back-to-back losses. Jaquez does so much in ancillary stats outside of scoring that he’s a slightly better cash play than Juzang if you want exposure to the late game tonight.
Wendell Green Jr.	AUB	ARK	7300	27.98	7000	25.63
Considering Green’s DFS floor/ceiling combo as Auburn’s playmaking point guard, he could end up being a chalky top-tier guard tonight at some pretty affordable price tags. This matchup vs. Arkansas is a great one for DFS with tons of offensive possessions on both ends and a back-and-forth environment likely occurring. That plays right into Green’s strengths as an excellent facilitator, decent rebounder and pure bucket-getter to fill up the stat sheet. He’ll be locked into even more playing time if Jasper is out too.
Trent Frazier	IL	PUR	6900	25.91	6300	23.56
With his slightly cheaper price tag among the high-end guards, Frazier is a high-upside GPP play tonight who could end up being contrarian. He’s always a candidate to get hot from deep and has had to take on a bigger offensive role lately with Curbelo hurt and Cockburn having tough matchups down low. Exactly that happened in the first meeting vs. Purdue when Frazier had 31 DK with a solid stat line of 16 points, six assists and five rebounds. If he’s not hitting shots, though, Frazier could bust your lineup - so limit to GPP.

Other Top Guards:

Julian Champagnie -- St. John’s ($8,700 DK / $8,200 FD)
Johnny Davis -- Wisconsin ($8,300 DK / $8,100 FD)
R.J. Cole -- Connecticut ($7,500 DK Only)
Caleb Love -- North Carolina ($6,600 DK Only)
K.D. Johnson -- Auburn ($6,500 DK / $6,100 FD)

Value Guards

Player	Team	Opp.	DK $	DK FPPG	FD $	FD FPPG
Andre Curbelo	IL	PUR	5500	19.16	4700	17.42
Curbelo’s price tags are the lowest they’ve been in some time because he’s been playing minimally off the bench after recently returning from injury. However, this is the ultimate buy-low opportunity for someone with Curbelo’s playmaking talent who went off for 20 points and 32 DK in the first matchup vs. Purdue. It’s hard to trust him in cash because who knows how much he plays, but the GPP upside is there at these cheap tags.
A.J. Hoggard	MSU	WISC	4900	17.51	5100	16.11
Hoggard can be Michigan State’s alpha playmaker on offense at times and he may be asked to do just that tonight. The backup point guard had 32 DK vs. Wisconsin in the first meeting and he was clearly a mismatch against the Badgers. Plus, he usually plays better at home - averaging 21 DK at home compared to 13 DK on the road. At right around 5k on both sites, Hoggard could give you 4x or 5x production and return cash value.
Eric Hunter Jr.	PUR	IL	4800	11.19	5200	10.37
Hunter has now started four straight games - even with Jaden Ivey back - and his DFS production is a lot safer with this starting role. He’s put up 18, 28 and 22 DK over the past three games and is logging 30 minutes or so in Purdue’s backcourt rotation. It may be tough to fully trust in cash, but he’s been much more consistent DFS-wise lately with this starting role.
Chris Lykes	ARK	AUB	4200	15.19	5200	14.04
After recently falling out of the normal rotation, Lykes is back to being a legit role player for Arkansas. He’s put up 28 and 20 DK in the last two games with a notable uptick in playing time and usage. It’s honestly tough to tell if this will continue because he was literally irrelevant two games ago - but the playmaking talent is definitely there for Lykes. It’s worth a shot in GPPs and maybe even cash in this high-total matchup vs. Auburn.
Chris Arcidiacono	VU	STJN	3600	5.36	3600	5.20
Villanova has two key injuries to watch tonight as both Justin Moore and Collin Gillespie are game-time decisions with ankle injuries. If one or both are out, Arcidiacono is a top candidate to start in the backcourt according to Jay Wright. He played a season-high 26 minutes on Saturday with Moore out and Gillespie hurting his ankle in the second half. Caleb Daniels is a good value too, but this sub-4k salary is really nice if he's starting - and the uptempo matchup certainly helps too.

Other Value Guards:

Eli Brooks -- Michigan ($5,400 DK / $5,500 FD)
Caleb Daniels -- Villanova ($5,400 DK / $5,500 FD)
Leaky Black -- North Carolina ($5,400 DK Only)
Davion Mintz -- Kentucky ($5,100 DK / $4,300 FD)
Chucky Hepburn -- Wisconsin ($4,600 DK / $4,400 FD)
Myles Dread -- Penn State ($4,300 DK / $4,600 FD)

Top Forwards

Player	Team	Opp.	DK $	DK FPPG	FD $	FD FPPG
Oscar Tshiebwe	UK	SCAR	9500	43.14	8700	40.32
Not much to say about Tshiebwe at this point. The guy is a legit contender for the Naismith POY award as he’s averaging 15.8 PPG and 15.2 RPG this season. The Kentucky big man is on a run of five straight double-doubles with at least 40 DK in each game. His DFS floor is so high because of his elite rebounding ability and the below-average South Carolina frontcourt won’t do much to contain him. Lock and load in all formats if you can fit him in.
Hunter Dickinson	MICH	PSU	8600	33.95	8400	31.84
The Michigan center has reeled off three straight games of 25+ points and 34+ DK coming into tonight and is now averaging 21 PPG and 35 DK over the past ten games. He’s as consistent as it gets for DFS forwards this season because of high usage and shot rates as the Wolverines’ go-to scorer. Penn State’s below-average frontcourt likely won’t slow him down tonight, so expect yet another cash stud performance.
Trayce Jackson-Davis	IU	NW	8100	37	7900	35.15
Jackson-Davis is prime for a bounceback performance tonight after dealing with foul trouble and Kofi Cockburn last time out. Besides that tough matchup and the one against Purdue’s frontcourt, TJD has been a consistent DFS stud every time out with his heavy offensive usage and shot volume for a legit 30-40 DK floor. Even on the road here, expect a safe cash performance from the Indiana big man - and we get him at a bit of a discount.
Jabari Smith	AUB	ARK	7500	31.45	7300	29.00
If Auburn is in action, we’ll always have the decision of whether to play Jabari Smith or Walker Kessler in DFS lineups. Lately it’s been Kessler as the stud play, but Smith shouldn’t be overlooked and he has the upside to smash his affordable price tags tonight. Honestly, this matchup might be better suited for Smith to go to work against Arkansas’ smaller power forwards and frontcourt outside of Jaylin Williams - who’ll have to go head-to-head vs. Kessler. The price differential between the Auburn bigs could lead to Smith being more popular as well.
Zach Edey	PUR	IL	7300	28.84	7400	27.17
We have a fantastic big man matchup tonight with Illinois’ Kofi Cockburn coming to town, but we should bank on Purdue’s center duo to have the upper hand. They did in the first matchup when Cockburn dealt with foul trouble while Trevion Williams and Zach Edey both had productive games. Edey, specifically, proved to be a handful in the paint with his 20 points, eight boards and 37 DK over 27 minutes. It’s always a gamble playing either Edey or Williams, but the former seems like the better play tonight in this matchup.

Other Top Forwards:

Walker Kessler -- Auburn ($8,900 DK / $8,600 FD)
Justin Lewis -- Marquette ($8,200 DK Only)
Jaylin Williams -- Arkansas ($7,900 DK / $7,800 FD)
PJ Hall – Clemson ($7,200 DK Only)
Brady Manek -- North Carolina ($6,700 DK Only)

Value Forwards

Player	Team	Opp.	DK $	DK FPPG	FD $	FD FPPG
Steven Crowl	WISC	MSU	5200	17.91	5300	16.71
Wisconsin’s center has been a solid DFS value at multiple points this season and he’s coming off a 31 DK performance last time out. Even though he only had 15 DK in the previous matchup vs. Michigan St, there’s upside for more tonight if the Sparty defense focuses on stopping Johnny Davis. It would mean Crowl and other Badgers need to step up offensively. Still, the cash floor is solid in the 5k range.
Brandon Slater	VU	STJN	5100	18.38	5300	17.19
We mentioned Villanova’s injury situation above. If Moore and/or Gillespie, we’ll likely see Slater play heavy minutes on the wing with an increase in offensive role. This pace-up game environment vs. St. John’s makes Nova a team to target, and their short rotation makes things even better. Slater had 23 DK in the first meeting vs. St. John’s and he could duplicate that or better if Moore/Gillespie are out.
James Keefe	STAN	UCLA	4800	13.12	5400	12.44
Though Stanford’s center isn’t heavily involved offensively, Keefe does just enough as a rebounder and paint scorer to be DFS-relevant. He’s averaging 17 DK over the last ten games but has 21, 23 and 28 DK over the past three. At the very least, Keefe will give you cheap exposure to the late-night hammer game tonight - which shouldn’t go overlooked.
Naz Bohannon	CLEM	UNC	4400	13.5
Bohannon moved into the starting lineup last game with Hunter Tyson out and he’s played 30 minutes in both of the last two games with his teammate sidelined. That increased playing time should continue with Tyson likely done for the year. In the extended role, Bohannon has 21 and 23 DK in the last two contests and he can easily do the same in a pace-up environment tonight. It’s one of the better DK cash values tonight.
Pauly Paulicap	WVU	ISU	3800	8.53	3400	8.01
Paulicap moved into the starting lineup last game with Taz Sherman out, played a season-high 27 minutes and had 14 DK with arguably his best game of the year. It wasn’t much, but his DFS floor is much safer with that type of playing time and role in the West Virginia rotation. Maybe it’s a bit risky for cash, but he’s cheap enough for a GPP dart if Sherman sits again with his concussion.

Other Value Forwards:

Cody Riley -- UCLA ($5,700 DK / $5,300 FD)
Malik Hall -- Michigan State ($5,600 DK / $5,200 FD)
Greg Lee -- Penn State ($5,400 DK / $5,200 FD)
Mason Gillis -- Purdue ($4,900 DK / $4,800 FD)
Keyshawn Bryant – South Carolina ($3,700 DK / $4,500 FD)

DraftKings Core Plays

Trayce Jackson-Davis – Indiana ($8,100)
Wendell Green Jr. – Auburn ($7,300)
Naz Bohannon – Clemson ($4,400)
Chris Arcidiacono – Villanova ($3,600) if starting

FanDuel Core Plays

Oscar Tshiebwe – Kentucky ($8,700)
Wendell Green Jr. – Auburn ($7,000)
Chris Arcidiacono – Villanova ($3,600) if starting