Before we get into the playbook, a quick note first on tonight’s slate. Yet again, DraftKings and FanDuel couldn’t agree on all of the same games – so lineup construction and strategy will be vastly different depending on which site you’re playing.
The DK slate starts at 6:30 pm ET, features five games that aren’t on FD and then fails to include the high-total Seton Hall/Georgetown matchup. Meanwhile, the FD slate doesn’t start until 7 pm ET and includes three games that aren’t on DK.
So definitely pay attention to the games available on the site you’re playing on when reading through this playbook. Hit me up in the Discord chat or on Twitter @dan_servodidio w/ any questions. Good luck!
THE SLATE (Odds & Totals via DraftKings Sportsbook)
- 6:30 pm ET -- Creighton at Connecticut (-10.5) – 132.5 O/U (DK Only)
- 7 pm ET -- South Carolina at Mississippi State (-8) – 139.5 O/U (DK Only)
- 7 pm ET -- Davidson at St. Bonaventure (-3) – 136 O/U (DK Only)
- 7 pm ET -- Rutgers at Northwestern (-5.5) – 133 O/U (DK Only)
- 7 pm ET -- Kansas (-2.5) at Iowa State – 137 O/U
- 7 pm ET -- Texas A&M at Tennessee (-11) – 131.5 O/U
- 7 pm ET -- Michigan State (-3.5) at Maryland – 137 O/U
- 8 pm ET -- North Carolina (-3.5) at Louisville – 145.5 O/U
- 8:30 pm ET -- Seton Hall (-7) at Georgetown – 149.5 O/U (FD Only)
- 9 pm ET -- Providence at St. John’s (-3) – 146 O/U
- 9 pm ET -- Alabama at Auburn (-6) – 156 O/U
- 9 pm ET -- Texas at Texas Tech (-4) – 124 O/U
- 9 pm ET -- Ole Miss at LSU (-12) – 127.5 O/U (FD Only)
- 9 pm ET -- Nebraska at Michigan (-14) – 142.5 O/U (FD Only)
- 10 pm ET -- California at Stanford (-4.5) – 130.5 O/U (DK Only)
Top KenPom Projected Team Totals
- Auburn – 82
- Seton Hall – 80
- Michigan – 80
- North Carolina – 75
- Alabama – 74
- Georgetown – 73
- Providence – 73
- St. John's – 72
- Connecticut – 72
- St. Bonaventure – 72
- Michigan State – 72
- Mississippi State – 72
- Kansas – 71
- Davidson – 71
- Tennessee – 71
Notable Injuries to Monitor:
- Ochai Agbaji, Kansas – OUT (COVID protocols)
- Bryce Aiken, Seton Hall -- QUESTIONABLE (concussion)
- Tolu Smith, Mississippi State -- OUT (knee)
- Dawson Garcia, North Carolina -- QUESTIONABLE (personal)
- Darius Miles, Alabama -- QUESTIONABLE (knee)
- Jarkel Joiner, Ole Miss -- OUT (back)
- Alonzo Verge, Nebraska -- PROBABLE (personal)
Top Guards
| Player | Team | Opp. | DK $ | DK FPPG | FD $ | FD FPPG | |
| Iverson Molinar | MSST | SCAR | 8800 | 32.08 | |||
| Even on a slate with so many good teams and individual players, Molinar deserves to be considered among the top-tier guards tonight on DK. Mississippi State’s best player is coming off a poor 18 DK effort vs. Texas Tech, but that can be excused against a tough defense on the road. Expect him to bounce back at home, where he’s averaging 18 PPG and 32 DK this season. | |||||||
| Wendell Green Jr. | AUB | BAMA | 7900 | 27.11 | 6200 | 24.78 | |
| The Auburn-Alabama matchup is a top game to target on this slate with the highest total and two fast-paced offenses in action. For Auburn, Green is the catalyst running the point and he’ll be looking to bounce back after a few subpar DFS efforts lately. Green had 19 points scored and 36 DK in the first meeting vs. Auburn and should post similar numbers at home in the rematch. The expensive DK price makes it more of a decision, but the cheap FD tag will make him a popular cash play over there. | |||||||
| Izaiah Brockington | ISU | KU | 7800 | 31.19 | 6800 | 28.39 | |
| He’s by no means a flashy DFS play, but Brockington is a near-lock to put up 25-30 DK every time out at this point. In his high-usage and heavy shot volume role for Iowa St, the senior wing is averaging 16 PPG and 30 DK over the past ten games. He had 17 points, eight boards and 28 DK vs. Kansas in the first meeting but now gets the rematch at home. Expect another cash-level performance in this pace-boost matchup. | |||||||
| Jahvon Quinerly | BAMA | AUB | 7200 | 26.73 | 7500 | 24.44 | |
| If Alabama is on the slate, we should be considering all of the Tide’s top guards for cash or GPP. While Shackelford, Ellis and Davison are all good plays, Quinerly offers a slightly safer floor while running the point. We can expect him to be busy offensively in this uptempo, high-total matchup. He put up 30 DK in the first meeting vs. Auburn and should post a similar performance this time around. | |||||||
| Jared Rhoden | SHU | GTWN | 7400 | 27.35 | |||
| On the FD slate, this Seton Hall-Georgetown matchup is one to focus on with the second-highest total behind Auburn-Alabama. For SHU, it’s Rhoden who will continue to be a top DFS option as long as Bryce Aiken remains sidelined. He’s put up 31 and 27 FD points in the last two games with Aiken out and should be stuffing the stat sheet tonight in an uptempo matchup vs. Georgetown’s below-average defense. | |||||||
Other Top Guards:
- Christian Braun – Kansas ($9,100 DK / $6,300 FD)
- Jaden Shackelford -- Alabama ($8,300 DK / $8,100 FD)
- R.J. Cole -- Connecticut ($7,500 DK Only)
- Caleb Love -- North Carolina ($7,100 DK / $6,200 FD)
- K.D. Johnson -- Auburn ($6,100 DK / $5,400 FD)
- JD Davison -- Alabama ($6,000 DK / $7,300 FD)
Value Guards
| Player | Team | Opp. | DK $ | DK FPPG | FD $ | FD FPPG | |
| Shakeel Moore | MSST | SCAR | 5200 | 21.76 | |||
| Last time out, Moore gave us a dud in a tough road matchup vs. Texas Tech. Before that, though, he had put up 21+ DK in four straight and is averaging 20 DK over the past ten games now. Outside of Molinar, it’s Moore who’s Miss St’s best offensive threat and he’ll benefit from a pace-boost matchup tonight vs. South Carolina. It’s a solid cash bargain on the DK slate. | |||||||
| Myles Cale | SHU | GTWN | 5200 | 18.89 | |||
| Cale has taken on a bigger offensive role for Seton Hall with Bryce Aiken out. In the last three games with Aiken sidelined, Cale has put up 34, 26 and 20 FD points with an increase in playing time and ancillary stat production. His DFS floor is much higher with Aiken out and that should continue in a high-total, uptempo matchup vs. Georgetown. He’s a great cash value on the FD slate. | |||||||
| A.J. Hoggard | MSU | UMD | 3900 | 17.99 | 5500 | 16.56 | |
| Hoggard is appropriately priced on FD, but his DK tag is a bit too low considering a couple of huge DFS performances lately. The Spartans’ backup point guard put up 32 and 33 DK in two of the last three games with plenty of offensive involvement. While coming off the bench, Hoggard leads Michigan State in both usage and assist rates in his 20-25 minutes on the court. The offense usually runs through him at the point when he’s in the game and that keeps his DFS floor higher. | |||||||
| Leaky Black | UNC | UL | 3900 | 14.89 | 5300 | 14.08 | |
| Black has stepped into a bigger role and more playing time with Dawson Garcia out and that should continue tonight as long as Garcia remains sidelined. In the last three games with Garcia out, Black has logged at least 34 minutes in each and put up 27, 27 and 17 DK points. Even though he’s not involved much offensively, the senior does enough in ancillary stats to return value. | |||||||
| El Ellis | UL | UNC | 3800 | 12.63 | 4600 | 11.33 | |
| Predicting the Louisville rotation and starters is a total guessing game right now with the recent coaching change, but Ellis looks like a solid value based on last game. On Saturday in the first action with Chris Mack gone, Ellis led the team in scoring and shot volume with his 18 points and team-best 35% usage rate. Even though he came off the bench, it seems like Ellis will continue to have the green light offensively - especially with Malik Williams suspended tonight. | |||||||
Other Value Guards:
- Caleb Houstan -- Michigan ($5,000 FD Only)
- Michael Jones -- Davidson ($4,900 DK Only)
- Dajuan Harris Jr. -- Kansas ($4,400 DK / $4,700 FD)
- Andrew Jones -- Texas ($4,200 DK / $5,200 FD)
- Jamir Harris -- Seton Hall ($4,100 FD Only)
- Dre Davis -- Louisville ($3,700 DK / $4,500 FD)
Top Forwards
| Player | Team | Opp. | DK $ | DK FPPG | FD $ | FD FPPG | |
| Armando Bacot | UNC | UL | 9500 | 38.7 | 8500 | 35.87 | |
| Bacot has been a DFS stud all season, but his floor/ceiling increases even more with Malik Williams out for Louisville tonight. Bacot presents a massive mismatch in the paint on both ends against a weak Cardinals frontcourt that had trouble containing Paolo Banchero and Co. over the weekend. Expect Bacot to post cash stud numbers with the upside to be the slate’s top scorer as always. | |||||||
| Walker Kessler | AUB | BAMA | 9000 | 32.39 | 8400 | 30.77 | |
| It’s ironic and uncharacteristic that Kessler had 4.5 DK points in the first matchup vs. Alabama and busted lineups - but we shouldn’t be afraid of going right back there tonight. Since that dud outing, the Auburn center has averaged 41 DK over the past five games with at least 33 DK in each. Kessler and Jabari Smith should both dominante the interior against Alabama’s softer post defense, but expect Kessler to be lower rostered than the cheaper Smith - making him a better GPP play tonight. | |||||||
| Hunter Dickinson | MICH | NEB | 8200 | 31.18 | |||
| On the FD slate, Dickinson is a top pay-up option in the forward pool. The Michigan center gets a very favorable pace-boost matchup vs. Nebraska’s subpar frontcourt and he should easily anchor your cash lineups. He put up 15 points, 12 rebounds and 33 FD in the first meeting vs. Nebraska and should replicate those numbers tonight. The only worry is the blowout potential. | |||||||
| Jabari Smith | AUB | BAMA | 7200 | 32.24 | 7700 | 29.73 | |
| As mentioned with Walker Kessler above, the Auburn frontcourt duo should have an advantage against Alabama’s below-average interior defense tonight. Both are fantastic cash or GPP plays in this high-total, uptempo matchup. Smith, though, shouldn’t be priced this much lower than Kessler and he could be a popular cash option. Smith had 25 points and 47 DK in the first meeting vs. Bama and could easily replicate that performance. | |||||||
| Nate Watson | PROV | STJN | 6100 | 23.96 | 6400 | 22.84 | |
| Watson dominated the soft interior defense of St. John’s earlier this season and should do the same tonight. The Providence big man had 22 points, 11 rebounds and 39 DK in that first meeting and could easily replicate those numbers. The St. John’s frontcourt is undersized and subpar defensively, allowing opposing bigs to post good numbers nearly every time. Watson has the talent to exploit this matchup and he’s very affordable on both sites - which could make him popular in cash. | |||||||
Other Top Forwards:
- Adama Sanogo -- Connecticut ($8,900 DK Only)
- Brady Manek -- North Carolina ($7,700 DK / $6,300 FD)
- Luka Brajkovic -- Davidson ($7,100 DK Only)
- Harrison Ingram -- Stanford ($6,800 DK Only)
- Tari Eason -- LSU ($6,600 FD Only)
Value Forwards
| Player | Team | Opp. | DK $ | DK FPPG | FD $ | FD FPPG | |
| Marcus Bingham Jr. | MSU | UMD | 4800 | 25.63 | 5400 | 24.28 | |
| Bingham is a risky value play because he can either go for 25-30 DK or more, or he fails to return value with less than 20 DFS points. The matchup vs. Maryland is more favorable than most, though, because of the Terps’ lack of size and skill with Qudus Wahab disappointing more often than not. At least Bingham is coming off two good performances in the last two games with 31 and 25 DK vs. Illinois and Michigan. | |||||||
| Cameron Matthews | MSST | SCAR | 4500 | 17.54 | |||
| Like Shakeel Moore and Iverson Molinar above, Matthews is another Miss St player who’s coming off a dud performance on the road at Texas Tech. We should look past that with a more favorable, faster-paced matchup tonight at home vs. South Carolina. As for Matthews, he’s recently joined the starting lineup and stepped into a bigger role with Tolu Smith out - and 23 DK vs. Kentucky the game prior. | |||||||
| A.J. Reeves | PROV | STJN | 4400 | 19.22 | 5500 | 17.67 | |
| If we could trust the minutes and playing time for Reeves, then these price tags are too cheap. Unfortunately it’s unclear how much he’ll play in just his second game back since missing a month of action. Reeves returned on Sunday and logged 19 minutes off the bench, putting up 10 DK in the process. It’s probably safer to wait until he’s back in the starting lineup and getting a full workload, but the contrarian play would be to get him in GPP lineups before the big performance. | |||||||
| Keyshawn Bryant | SCAR | MSST | 3700 | 15.53 | |||
| Bryant is the definition of a boom-or-bust GPP play if you want to take on the risk. He’s put up 27 and 26 DK in two of the last three games but also has 16 DK or less in five of the last seven. At least he’s started the past five games, but he’s so volatile in DFS production due to foul trouble and/or ineffectiveness offensively. Still, the proven ceiling would smash his cheap DK price tag. | |||||||
| Jae'Lyn Withers | UL | UNC | 3200 | 12.06 | 3700 | 10.86 | |
| With Malik Williams suspended tonight, Withers is a prime candidate to move into the starting lineup at the center spot. The sophomore began the year as a starter but has been coming off the bench during conference play. Who knows how playing time will shake out with the recent coaching change, but a ton of minutes are now up for grabs with Williams out. Sydney Curry also gets a bump up in DFS value. | |||||||
Other Value Forwards:
- Justin Minaya -- Providence ($5,700 DK / $5,900 FD)
- James Reese -- South Carolina ($5,300 DK Only)
- Isaiah Whaley -- Connecticut ($4,900 DK Only)
- Derrick Walker -- Nebraska ($4,700 FD Only)
- Sydney Curry -- Louisville ($4,400 DK / $3,400 FD)
- Marcus Santos-Silva -- Texas Tech ($3,500 DK / $4,600 FD)
DraftKings Core Plays
- Jabari Smith – Auburn ($7,200)
- Nate Watson – Providence ($6,100)
- Leaky Black – North Carolina ($3,900)
FanDuel Core Plays
- Hunter Dickinson – Michigan ($8,200)
- Wendell Green Jr. – Auburn ($6,200)
- Myles Cale – Seton Hall ($5,200)