The 2025 NCAA Tournament officially gets underway tonight with a pair of First Four games. The first matchup features No. 16 seeds Saint Francis (PA) and Alabama State with the winner advancing to face No. 1 seed Auburn.

Check out our Saint Francis vs. Alabama State predictions below for tonight’s First Four March Madness matchup. We’ll take a deep dive into the top stats, players, storylines, and betting odds to know.

 

 

 

Saint Francis vs. Alabama State Predictions For First Four March Madness, 3/18

Tuesday night’s First Four matchup should be a fun one as we officially tip off the NCAA Tournament. Saint Francis and Alabama State are lower-tier college basketball teams, but both come in hot as their respective conference champs.

Let’s now get into the top Saint Francis vs. Alabama State predictions for tonight’s First Four March Madness showdown.

 

 

 

Saint Francis Red Flash: Will The Cinderella Run Continue?

Saint Francis (PA) is making its first NCAA Tournament appearance since 1991. It’s been a true underdog story for the Red Flash on their journey to the Big Dance. They went just 13-17 in the regular season and 8-8 in conference play before improbably winning the Northeast Conference Tournament.

Saint Francis even had to go on the road and play top-seeded Central Connecticut in the league championship game. In their conference tournament, the Red Flash won each of their three games by exactly three points apiece. Somehow, they found ways to win and pull off multiple upsets.

The Red Flash are not a particularly good college basketball team, comparatively. They’re 297th in the NET rankings while being 299th nationally in offensive efficiency and 293rd in defensive efficiency, per KenPom. They’re also the only sub-.500 team in the NCAA Tournament field this year.

Saint Francis is a young team, ranking 349th in the country in Division I experience (per KenPom). There isn’t a single senior on the roster and the best player is a junior college transfer in Riley Parker. Despite the inexperience and lack of overall talent, give credit to the Red Flash for punching their ticket to the NCAA Tournament.

 

 

 

Alabama State Hornets: Late Surge With Strong Guard Play

At one point in early February, Alabama State was 9-14 overall and just 5-5 in conference play. The Hornets are 10-1 since then, including a Southwestern Athletic Conference Tournament title. This team got hot at the right time and will look to carry that into this First Four matchup.

Alabama State is built on its excellent backcourt. CJ Hines (14.4 PPG), Amarr Knox (14.3 PPG), and TJ Madlock (12.6 PPG) give the Hornets three guards to rely on. That matters more in March, where ball-handling and playmaking in the half-court become paramount.

Alabama State’s trio of guards also anchor an offense that is elite at avoiding turnovers. The Hornets rank fifth in all of college basketball in offensive turnover rate and 14th nationally in turnover margin. Those are terrific numbers for a SWAC team.

 

 

 

How To Watch First Four March Madness 2025

Tuesday’s First Four March Madness game between Saint Francis and Alabama State tips off at 6:40 pm ET. You can watch it on truTV or stream on Max. The same goes for the three other First Four matchups on Tuesday and Wednesday nights.

Following Saint Francis vs. Alabama State will be another First Four showdown between North Carolina and San Diego State, tipping off at approximately 9:10 pm ET. Let’s now dive into some Saint Francis vs. Alabama State picks, odds, and predictions. 

 

 

 

Saint Francis vs. Alabama State Odds, Spreads, Total & Betting Lines

Before we get to our Saint Francis vs. Alabama State predictions, check out the betting lines on FanDuel Sportsbook. As of this writing, here are the Saint Francis vs. Alabama State odds: 

  • Saint Francis Red Flash (+142) vs. Alabama State Hornets (-172)
    • Spread: Saint Francis +3.5 (-110) vs. Alabama State -3.5 (-110)
    • Game Total: Over 138.5 (-110) vs. Under 138.5 (-110)

 

 

 

Saint Francis vs. Alabama State Picks: Hornets -3.5 (-110 on FanDuel)

Saint Francis defying odds to this point is certainly impressive, but the Cinderella run should end tonight. We’re taking Alabama State -3.5 (-110 on FanDuel) for our Saint Francis vs. Alabama State predictions.

The Red Flash will face a scorching hot Alabama State squad that has notable advantages on both ends of the court. According to KenPom, Alabama State is ranked 37 spots better in offensive efficiency and 29 spots better in defensive efficiency. The Hornets’ talented backcourt should control this game and anchor a win.

Alabama State’s stellar ability to avoid turnovers on offense is a big factor here. Meanwhile, Saint Francis ranks 321st in offensive turnover rate. That’s even more concerning with Alabama State being 91st in defensive turnover rate – which is notable for a mid-major team.

Plus, Alabama State has a size advantage in the frontcourt tonight. The Hornets have 6-10 forward Jasteven Walker and 7-foot-1 Ubong Okon manning the middle. Guard TJ Madlock is also an excellent rebounder, averaging 7.2 boards per game. Saint Francis, on the other hand, has only one true big man in Valentino Pinedo (6-foot-8).

Look for Alabama State to win the turnover battle and out-rebound Saint Francis here en route to the victory. Let’s take Alabama State -3.5 (-110 on FanDuel) for our pick. The Hornets are 5-1 against the spread (ATS) in the last six games and 8-3 ATS in the last 11 contests. 

 

 

 

Saint Francis vs. Alabama State Injury Report & Starting Lineups

Saint Francis Red Flash Injury Report

  • Ace Talbert (G) – Doubtful

Saint Francis Red Flash Expected Starters

  • Riley Parker (G) – 13.4 PPG, 3.4 APG
  • Valentino Pinedo (F) – 10.0 PPG, 6.5 RPG
  • Juan Cranford (G) – 10.0 PPG, 4.0 RPG
  • Daemar Kelly (G) – 8.2 PPG, 3.3 RPG
  • Chris Moncrief (F) – 6.1 PPG, 2.7 RPG

Alabama State Hornets Injury Report

  • Jalen Keago (F) – Doubtful

Alabama State Hornets Expected Starters

  • CJ Hines (G) – 14.4 PPG, 2.5 APG
  • Amarr Knox (G) – 14.3 PPG, 2.5 APG
  • TJ Madlock (G) – 12.6 PPG, 7.2 RPG
  • Micah Octave (F) – 5.2 PPG, 5.4 RPG
  • Jasteven Walker (F) – 5.3 PPG, 3.5 RPG

 

 

 

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