ASU vs. Kansas State Predictions, Picks & Odds: CBB on ESPN+, 3/11

The Arizona State Sun Devils are gearing up to face the Kansas State Wildcats in the first round of the Big 12 Tournament, with both teams eager to keep their playoff hopes alive.
Will Kansas State take advantage of its higher seed and recent success, or can Arizona State pull off a surprise and prolong its tournament journey? Let’s take a closer look at our ASU vs. Kansas State picks for the matchup and analyze this exciting first-round battle.
ASU vs. Kansas State Predictions Today: Tuesday, 3/11
Arizona State comes in as the No. 15 seed after a challenging season marked by difficulties in conference games. On the other hand, No. 10 seed Kansas State is looking to gain some momentum for a possible deep run in the tournament.
The Wildcats narrowly won their first matchup in February with a score of 71-70, but the Sun Devils bounced back later that month, securing a solid 66-54 win. Just some things to consider as we get ready to make our ASU vs. Kansas State predictions.
Arizona State Sun Devils: Where Art Thou, Consistency?
Arizona State has experienced a tumultuous season, showing moments of promise but having difficulty maintaining consistent play. Offensively, they have performed decently, scoring an average of 74.2 points per game.
However, their field goal shooting has been inefficient at 44.0%, placing them 227th in the rankings, which limits their scoring opportunities. Defensively, their problems are even more severe, as they allow 76.7 points per game, ranking 306th in the nation.
The Sun Devils have specifically faced challenges in crucial games, especially in rebounding, where they rank low with an average of 30.0 rebounds per game (303rd). After tough losses to teams like Texas Tech, Arizona, and Utah recently, ASU has many issues to resolve before the postseason.
Kansas State Wildcats: Defensive Grit Keeping Them Afloat
Kansas State has established its reputation through strong defense, ranking 68th in opponent three-point shooting at 31.6% and allowing 69.7 points per game, which is 107th in the nation.
However, they have faced challenges on offense, sitting at 256th in scoring with 71.3 points per game and hitting only 32.9% from three-point range. Unfortunately, their shooting efficiency is also low at 44.1%, and they struggle at the free-throw line with 68.6%, which has hurt them in tight games.
K-State has secured notable wins against teams like Arizona and Kansas, but their inconsistent scoring has resulted in disappointing losses. To succeed in the postseason, they must improve their scoring consistency while maintaining their strong defensive play.
ASU vs. Kansas State Odds, Spreads, Total & Betting Lines
FanDuel Sportsbook quickly released ASU vs. Kansas State odds and lines for the game right after it was announced. The current numbers are as follows:
- Arizona State Sun Devils (+195) vs. Kansas State Wildcats (-240)
- Spread: Arizona State +5.5 (-110) vs. Kansas State -5.5 (-110)
- Game Total: Over 144.5 (-110) vs. Under 144.5 (-110)
ASU vs. Kansas State Game Total: Under 144.5 (-110 at FanDuel)
Let’s go with the under 144.5 (-110 at FanDuel) for our ASU vs. Kansas State predictions, and it's pretty clear why – neither team is really good at scoring a lot of points. Arizona State can shoot threes decently (36.1%, which is 72nd in the country), but Kansas State has a strong defense that limits opponents to just 31.6% from beyond the arc (68th).
Plus, ASU has a hard time putting up points consistently, sitting at 172nd in points per game (74.2) and a low 227th in field goal percentage (44.0%). On the flip side, Kansas State's offense is even worse, ranking 256th in scoring (71.3 PPG) and a poor 244th in three-point shooting (32.9%). Their slow pace and struggle to score easily will likely keep the points down.
The key point? Their two regular-season games were both low-scoring. The first one ended at 71-70 (141 total points), and the second was a tough 66-54 game (120 total points). Since both teams know each other well and K-State has a strong defense, we should see another low-scoring game. So, we’re betting on the under 144.5 in our ASU vs. Kansas State predictions.
ASU vs. Kansas State Injury Report & Starting Lineup
Arizona State Sun Devils Injury Report
- A. Miller (G) – Questionable: Hip
- J. Quaintance (F) – Questionable: Knee
- A. Nunez (G) – Out: Foot
Arizona State Sun Devils Projected Starters
- B. Jihad (F) – (12.5 PPG, 5.5 RPG)
- A. Mason (G) – (13.4 PPG, 4.0 APG)
- S. Phillips (C) – (5.2 PPG, 4.9 RPG)
- J. Sanon (G) – (11.9 PPG, 3.3 RPG)
- A. Ali (G) – (5.4 PPG, 32.2% 3PT%)
Kansas State Wildcats Injury Report
- None
Kansas State Wildcats Projected Starters
- C. Hawkins (F) – (10.4 PPG, 6.9 RPG)
- D. N'Guessan (F) – (13.3 PPG, 7.2 RPG)
- B. Hausen (G) – (11.2 PPG, 38.8% 3PT%)
- M. Jones (G) – (9.9 PPG, 4.0 RPG)
- D. McDaniel (G) – (11.3 PPG, 4.9 APG)
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