Howdy Howdy everybody! Servo is still feeling under the weather so I’m filling in on the College Hoops DFS Playbook. February 29th comes every four years so it seems fitting that a rare Playbook from your truly falls on such an appropriate date. I’ll do my best to keep the format the same and I’ll be around in the CBB DFS chat as well to answer questions leading up to lineup lock! Best of luck, FANation!
Eight-Game DraftKings Slate with Odds and Over/Under
San Diego State (-5.5) at Nevada; O/U 142.0
Michigan State at Maryland (-2.5); O/U 136.5
Arizona State at USC (-3); O/U 140.0
Miami (FL) at Georgia Tech (-5.5); O/U 144.0
Memphis (-5) at Tulane; O/U 137.0
South Carolina at Alabama (-5.5); O/U 159.5
Saint Mary’s at Gonzaga (-13); O/U 150.0
Arizona (-3) at UCLA; O/U 135.0
Top Plays
Xavier Tillman (Michigan State) $8,700 – It’s been a while since we’ve seen Tillman have a monster game, so I’ll pick tonight for that to be the case. The steals and blocks should be there for Tillman. He’ll have another tough test against Jalen Smith (who is worth playing in GPP’s), but Tillman held Luka Garza to about 38% shooting the other night and Tillman is always a solid candidate for a double-double regardless. He had a pretty disappointing night his last time out, but I like him to get back on track against the Terps tonight.
Onyeka Okongwu (USC) $8,600 – He’s always worth paying up for with 30+ point upside on DraftKings. He has a double-double in back-to-back games with a fairly safe floor of 4X value, which is perfectly fine in. CBB DFS. He’s a beast on the glass and he could get a couple blocks as well. It’s a slightly up-tempo game for the Trojans so Okongwu is a good play for tonight’s slate.
Kira Lewis Jr. (Alabama) $8,500 – With John Petty Jr. sounding like he won’t be available for Saturday night’s game against South Carolina, naturally we’ll target Lewis, who is a stud even when Petty is on the court. Lewis gets the minutes, he takes a ton of shots, and he’s registered at least 40 DK points in five of his last six games. And the one game he didn’t, he wasn’t on the slate. Bama has one of the higher projected totals on the slate and Lewis takes plenty of three-point shots. The Crimson Tide come with one of the higher implied totals on the night (almost 81-83 points) so lock and load Lewis tonight.
Malachi Flynn (San Diego State) $8,400 – Flynn just regularly plays at least 35 minutes each night and he contributes in so many different facets. He takes double-digit shots, he has at least eight three-point attempts in six straight games, he gets rebounds, and he collects assists. He does it all. The Aztecs are projected for about 74 points and Flynn should once again be heavily involved. It’s the last regular season game for San Diego State and I expect Flynn to have a huge game tonight. He’s a competitor. He was pretty pissed after SDSU took their first loss and while the Aztecs finished the season strong with a win, I think they’ll put Flynn in a spot to have a really good game.
Jordan Ford (Saint Mary’s) $8,000 – I love playing Ford tonight because it’s basically a guarantee that he’ll get the minutes. The downside is that while the ceiling is pretty high, he could put up maybe 15-25 DraftKings points and net you minimal value. But he could just as well get 4X-5X value so he’s a great GPP play, but I may avoid him in Cash games. In five of his last seven games he’s played 40 minutes and he should take at least 15 shots tonight. This game will be pretty popular for DFS and while the Zags are huge favorites, I like Ford to play catch-up and have a solid stat line.
Teshaun Hightower (Tulane) $7,000 – Tulane’s awful. They’re currently last in the AAC, but Hightower is a pretty solid value at just $7K. In four of his last five games he’s put up at least 31.5 DK points. He gets plenty of minutes and put up a ton of shots. He also has 11 steals in his last four games, which is a nice little bonus. He’s attempted a robust amount of shots lately so if he can do the same tonight then he once again has that 30+ point upside on DraftKings.
Jaden Shackelford (Alabama) $6,600 – As mentioned in the Kira Lewis Jr. section, John Petty Jr. is unlikely to play so there are some minutes that are opening up. In 36 minutes on Tuesday night where Petty was hurt, Shackelford put up 17 points and nine boards. He’s not afraid to hoist up three-point shots at will either. He only has a dozen three-point attempts in his last two games, but in the three games prior from February 12th-19th he attempted 45 three-point attempts. That’s not a typo, and he made 18 of those attempts. With Petty possibly sitting tonight, Shackelford has a lot of upside.
Corey Kispert (Gonzaga) $6,300 – It’s always a pain trying to pick the right Forward from Gonzaga’s pack. The Zags are the biggest favorites on the slate and they have an implied team total over 80 points. I’ll go a little heavier on Kispert tonight since he’s cheaper than Filip Petrusev ($7,400) and Killian Tillie ($6,700). Those two are still in play, as is Drew Timme ($5,900) but Kispert’s been getting the minutes and at his price, he’s been returning better value. With the WCC tournament starting up, and the Bulldogs locked into the one-seed I’m not going too crazy with exposure, but I’d be an idiot to avoid arguably the best team on the slate.
Other Players to Consider
- Jalen Smith (Maryland) $8,500; It’s a very tough matchup against Tillman; GPP play.
- Cassius Winston (Michigan State) $8,200
- Precious Achiuwa (Memphis) $8,100
- Anthony Cowan Jr. (Maryland) $8,000
- Maik Kotsar (South Carolina) $7,500
- Nico Mannion (Arizona) $6,800 – GPP Only
- Moses Wright (Georgia Tech) $6,300; I also like Alvarado, but he’s $500 more.
- Ryan Wooldridge (Gonzaga) $6,100
- Jaime Jaquez Jr. (UCLA) $6,100
- The Gonzaga Forwards mentioned in Kispert’s section
Value Options
Daniel Utomi (USC) $5,700 – Utomi is mostly a GPP play because I do like a teammate of his listed a little further down the list. Over his last seven games he’s averaging ten field goal attempts per game and he’s pretty active on the glass. He would need about 23 DraftKings points to get 4X value. I’m not predicting that as a lock, but he’s capable of getting there as we’ve seen over the last month. He’s more of a GPP play, but he’s on the court enough for you to feel okay about him as a GPP play.
Rob Edwards (Arizona State) $5,200 – Edwards has been on a pretty good tear of late and even $5,200 feels like a discount if you’ve looked at his last three games. He has 57 points over that span and he’s made 13-of-25 three-point attempts. His usage and minutes are both up as Arizona State makes a push for the playoffs. This isn’t the sexiest game on the slate He’s posted 30 points on DraftKings three times this month so the upside is very nice for Edwards in GPP contests.
Boogie Ellis (Memphis) $4,900 – It’s a layup of a matchup for Memphis today and Ellis should see about 24-30 minutes of action. Over the past month we’ve seen him get to 22-28 points on DraftKings a few times and at a sub-$5K price tag, that’s the value we’re looking for.
Keyshawn Bryant (South Carolina) $4,800 – I really like Maik Kotsar too, hence the shoutout in the sub-section above, but Bryant is en fuego right now and he’s still very cheap at just $4,800. The minutes have been there for him with Justin Minaya out for a few more games and he has back-to-back double-doubles with 33.5 and 40.5 DraftKings points in those two games. The minutes have been there for him as have the shot attempts. This game has a very high Over/Under and while Alabama is fourth in possessions per game at nearly 80, South Carolina ranks 41st in the country with 74.3 possessions per game. I’ll be quite heavy on Bryant tonight.
Isaiah Mobley (USC) $4,600 – Isaiah Mobley was a bit of a Questionable play Thursday night as he’s been dealing with an ankle injury. When he’s healthy, he’s capable of putting up around 25 points on DraftKings, which we saw just a couple weeks ago from him. He played 27 minutes on Thursday night after playing ten minutes on Sunday and 18 minutes the week before. He’ll need to be active on the boards to return value, but if he’s going to play upwards of 30 minutes tonight then he’s a decent. value at this price.
James Bolden (Alabama) $4,500 – Here’s another Alabama guard we can look at with John Petty Jr. potentially resting tonight. While I’ll have more exposure to Lewis and Shackelford, I’ll sprinkle in some shares of Bolden as well. In 34 minutes of action on Tuesday he put up 23.5 DK points at just $4,200. He should see an uptick in minutes if Petty does sit and I think 5X value is easily on the table. The one concern I have with Bolden is he’s no stranger to foul trouble. In two of his last five games he’s fouled out and in another game he collected four fouls. Sadly it’s part of the risk we’ll be taking by rostering him.
Dylan Smith (Arizona) $4,500 – It’s a rough spot for Arizona tonight as they travel to UCLA for a road game against the Bruins. Mick Cronin’s team has won six straight games while the Wildcats have dropped back-to-back games as well. On top of that, Josh Green won’t be available for the Wildcats. So while this presents upside for Nico Mannion, Dylan Smith should get some extra rub as well. Smith is no stranger to playing 30+ minutes and he isn’t afraid to shoot the ball either. The projected low scoring total is a concern, but Smith is a very good value play on tonight’s slate.
Other Players to Consider
- Herbert Jones (Another Bama G/F) $5,300
- Rocket Watts (Michigan State) $4,500; Decent value if he starts again.
- Dan Fotu (Saint Mary’s) $4,200; Cheap price for a guy who has been getting some starts and is logging good minutes for the Gaels.
- Jemarl Baker Jr. (Arizona) $4,100; GPP punt
DraftKings Lineup #1
Guard – Jaden Shackelford
Guard – Malachi Flynn
Guard – Dylan Smith
Forward – Keyshawn Bryant
Forward – Drew Timme
Forward – Xavier Tillman
UTIL – Rob Edwards
UTIL – Daniel Utomi
DraftKings Lineup #2
Guard – Kira Lewis Jr.
Guard – Rob Edwards
Guard – Ryan Woolridge
Forward – Keyshawn Bryant
Forward – Jaime Jaquez Jr.
Forward – Isaiah Mobley
UTIL – Jaden Shackelford
UTIL – Jordan Ford