Monday night brings us a must-see top-10 matchup featuring two of the best teams in college basketball. We have No. 2 Houston taking on No. 6 Iowa State in a Big 12 showdown, holding plenty of weight for NCAA Tournament seeding and conference standings. Check out our #3 Houston vs. #5 Iowa State predictions ahead of tonight’s clash. 

Can the Houston Cougars pull the road upset and stay atop the Big 12 standings? Or will the Iowa State Cyclones get it done at home for a statement win? Don’t miss our #3 Houston vs. #5 Iowa State picks, which include betting odds, a full injury report, how to watch, and more.

#3 Houston vs. #5 Iowa State Predictions for NCAAB on ESPN, 2/16

Before we get to the #3 Houston vs. #5 Iowa State predictions, let’s set the stage for Monday night’s Big 12 battle. Houston is 23-2 on the season and 11-1 in conference play. The Cougars’ only losses this year came by 4 points on the road at Texas Tech last month, and by 3 points on a neutral court vs. Tennessee back in November. Notably, they’ve earned 5 straight double-digit victories coming into this game. 

Iowa State, meanwhile, is 22-3 overall and 9-3 in the Big 12. The Cyclones just dominated Kansas with an 18-point home win on Saturday. After losing a pair of games last month, ISU has gotten back on track with a 6-1 record over the last 7 contests. Let’s now get to our #3 Houston vs. #5 Iowa State picks. 

#3 Houston vs. #5 Iowa State Total Pick: Under 134.5 Total Points (-112 on BetMGM Sportsbook)

A convincing case can be made for either Houston or Iowa State winning this game. On the one hand, we have a Cougars squad that’s regularly dominating teams and owns multiple impressive road victories on its resume. Meanwhile, the Cyclones’ home-court advantage at Hilton Coliseum is no joke, and they can carry the momentum from beating Kansas into this matchup. 

This game is essentially a pick’em, with slight value on Houston as the road underdog. However, let’s look at the total and bank on a low-scoring defensive battle here. 

We can count on Houston to set the tone and make this a slow-paced slugfest. The Cougars are 5th nationally in defensive efficiency (per KenPom) while allowing just 61.3 PPG thus far (2nd-lowest in Division I). Kelvin Sampson’s teams are always elite defensively, and this year’s version is no different. 

The Cougs have allowed 70 points or fewer in 10 of 12 conference games, and 65 or fewer in 8 of the 12 contests. They also keep things lower-scoring with a molasses-slow pace. Houston ranks 351st out of 365 Division I teams in adjusted tempo, per KenPom. A big part of that is defending for the entire shot clock, shutting down passing lanes and open shots, forcing the opposition into unproductive possessions. 

Houston’s ability to force turnovers (5th-best defensive turnover rate nationally) while defending the three-pointer and the interior is key in this matchup. Iowa State big man Joshua Jefferson can be a force inside, while Milan Momcilovic is a lights-out perimeter shooter. Yet, the Cougars have the size and athleticism to match up with what the Cyclones prefer to do offensively. 

Meanwhile, Iowa State also brings in a top-tier defense itself. It ranks 6th in the country in defensive efficiency while allowing only 64.5 PPG this year (11th). The Cyclones have allowed fewer than 70 points in 8 of 12 conference games as well. Similar to Houston, the ISU defense forces turnovers at an elite level, ranking 6th nationally in defensive turnover rate. 

With a pair of excellent defenses involved, the under is the natural lean. Houston’s very slow pace adds another element, too. Then we have the low-scoring history of how these matchups have gone in recent years. 

Iowa State and Houston have met four times since the latter joined the Big 12 in 2023. The under has cashed in 3 of those 4 meetings with final combined totals of 127, 110, 138, and 110 points. Last year’s matchup was a 68-59 victory for the Cougars. Maybe the Cyclones get revenge, but the total should stay low either way. 

 

 


 

How To Watch #3 Houston vs. #5 Iowa State NCAAB on ESPN

Now that you have our #3 Houston vs. #5 Iowa State predictions, here’s how and when to watch Monday night’s game: 

  • Date: Monday, February 16, 2026
  • Time: 9:00 PM ET
  • Location: Hilton Coliseum, Ames, Iowa
  • TV: ESPN

#3 Houston vs. #5 Iowa State Odds, Spreads, Total & Betting Lines

Let’s now get to the full #3 Houston vs. #5 Iowa State odds and betting lines ahead of tonight’s matchup, courtesy of BetMGM Sportsbook:

  • Moneyline: Houston +124 | Iowa State -148
  • Spread: Houston +2.5 (-110) | Iowa State -2.5 (-110)
  • Over/Under: 134.5 (Over -108 | Under -112)

#3 Houston vs. #5 Iowa State Injury Report & Latest News

Houston Injury Report

  • None

Iowa State Injury Report

  • None

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