The 2026 NCAA Tournament is off and running! We had plenty of entertaining March Madness first-round action on Thursday with a few upsets busting brackets. Let’s do it all again with a full day of games on tap for Friday, March 20th. Check out our College Basketball Round 1 Best Bets Today as you follow along with your own brackets. 

Apologies for the subpar results on the college basketball picks yesterday. At least we hit one of our best bets with the under in the Gonzaga game. Win or lose, it’s a new day, and there are plenty more ways to go with our college basketball predictions. Note that all odds and betting lines are accurate as of this writing, but are always subject to change. Good luck!

College Basketball Round 1 Picks, Predictions & Best Bets Today, 3/20

Our NCAA Tournament college basketball Round 1 best bets today begin with No. 12 seed Akron looking to pull the upset over No. 5 seed Texas Tech. Plus, our college basketball picks feature an 8-vs-9 matchup between Villanova and Utah State. Check out even more college basketball predictions below. Enjoy March Madness with our college basketball Round 1 best bets today. 

 

 

 

Akron vs. Texas Tech Prediction: Friday, 3/20

Picking first-round upsets is always a fascinating idea. Is one on the horizon in Tampa this Friday as No. 12 seed Akron takes on No. 5 seed Texas Tech? It’s certainly possible, which makes the Zips an appealing pick to cover the spread and give the Red Raiders a real scare. 

Akron is live to keep this game close, or even pull off the upset win. While Miami (OH) grabbed most of the headlines out of the MAC this season, the Zips are the superior team based on advanced metrics. They rank 54th in the NET and 64th in KenPom, placing them among the top mid-major squads in the NCAA Tournament field. 

Akron’s past March Madness experience, especially under head coach John Groce, is also very notable. Groce has now guided the Zips to 3 straight NCAA Tournament appearances and 4 bids over the past 5 seasons. Though each of the past three trips ended in first-round losses, this may be his best team yet. Plus, Groce owns an impressive 7-3 record against the spread in NCAA Tournament games. 

Offensively, Akron has the firepower to cause problems. The Zips rank 8th in the nation in effective field-goal percentage and shoot 38.5% from beyond the arc (14th in Division I). They also push the pace, ranking 32nd in tempo. Akron also boasts a veteran roster, with four senior starters and one more playing major minutes off the bench. 

Texas Tech will have its hands full in this first-round matchup, especially given its recent struggles. The Red Raiders enter on a 3-game losing streak, most recently highlighted by a lopsided loss to Iowa State in the Big 12 Tournament. The absence of All-American J.T. Toppin due to a season-ending injury may be catching up to them, and they haven’t won in three weeks now. There are also more health concerns surrounding Christian Anderson and LeJuan Watts, who both suffered minor injuries in the latest game. Both are expected to play, but may not be at full strength. 

There’s no doubt that Texas Tech has more overall talent and is the better team. Still, the Red Raiders’ current form is a far cry from where it was a month or two ago. Akron, on the flip side, is surging with 19 wins in the last 20 games. Those victories may have come against MAC competition, but the consistency and momentum can still carry over to this game – especially for a team that’s accustomed to being the best on the floor.  

Let’s back Akron to cover the spread and, at least, keep things interesting. The Zips have sniffed upsets in recent NCAA Tournament appearances, and this matchup could be Groce’s chance to advance. Notably, 9 of the last 16 MAC teams in the Big Dance either won outright or kept it to single digits. 

Utah State vs. Villanova Prediction: Friday, 3/20

The 8-vs-9 matchups in the first round can always go either way. This game fits that mold as well. Although Utah State is the lower seed, the Aggies come in as slight favorites over Villanova. Both teams have their strengths and weaknesses, but Utah State is more battle-tested and holds a few important advantages heading into the matchup.

One major concern for Villanova is its underperformance against top competition. The Wildcats are 1-6 against KenPom top-50 teams this season, with their lone win coming in overtime vs. Wisconsin. While they benefited from playing in a relatively weaker Big East schedule, the ‘Cats struggled against the conference’s elite – going 0-4 against UConn and St. John’s. Plus, they just suffered a double-digit upset loss to Georgetown in the Big East Tournament quarterfinals. 

On the other side, Utah State brings in a much more proven resume. The Aggies posted a 5-2 record against KenPom top-50 teams and captured both the Mountain West regular season and conference tournament titles. They also just reeled off three straight double-digit victories to win the league tourney. 

Utah State’s strong offense, led by a veteran backcourt, can be the deciding factor in this game. The Aggies rank 28th nationally in offensive efficiency and 14th in effective field-goal percentage, according to KenPom. Mason Falslev, MJ Collins, and Drake Allen provide the offense with multiple playmakers who can handle the ball and score in different ways. 

More specifically, Utah State’s ability to score in the paint will be especially crucial. The Aggies are 11th in the country in two-point shooting, with Falslev and Collins as skilled scorers around the rim. Villanova, meanwhile, has had issues defending the interior. The Wildcats rank near the bottom nationally in defensive block rate (341st) and struggle on the defensive glass (244th). Plus, the loss of Matt Hodge to a season-ending injury further weakens the frontcourt depth and interior defense.

Meanwhile, Villanova’s offense can be too reliant on the three-pointer. The Wildcats are dangerous when the shots are falling, but the attack becomes stagnant when they’re not. Utah State also forces turnovers at the 16th-best rate in the country. That could spell trouble for Nova, which leans on freshman point guard Acaden Lewis. 

Admittedly, Mountain West teams have been very underwhelming in the NCAA Tournament over the years. That history is tough to ignore, but this Utah State team can buck the trend and get the win over Villanova on Friday.

 

 

Best College Basketball Prop Bets & Other Picks Today, 3/20

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